USA constitution was based on sound money backed by Gold. Currently our two biggest adversaries are openly encouraging their allies to dump the $ for Gold. These 2 adversaries are the #1 & #2 producers of Gold. Does not make me happy that the powers to be do not understand this. Our current account deficit has been past danger zone for 2 decades. If our analysis is correct, we either balance our budget or the US standard of living is about to fall off the cliff: milkshakes melting.

The FED is trapped?

The last time the FED raised rates above the rate of inflation, the Great Financial Crisis began. Since then the FED has run the easiest monetary policy in their history. In 1979 Paul Volcker raised rates to 20% causing a severe recession... ...13 years of extraordinarily low interest rates has created the largest financial bubble in US history. As the recent recession began, the FED immediately ramped QE4 to support financial assets. The bubble grew larger, but this time inflation broke out...

Gold continues to consolidate near all-time-highs on the monthly chart. The technical pattern continues to be a clear cup and handle formation. The fact that US bullion banks are covering shorts below $1800 suggests to us that $1700-$1800 remains major support. Last year FED... ...Chair Powell told Congress that surging money supply no longer had any correlation w/ inflation. We disagreed as the monetary history of the world suggested otherwise. M2 continues to grow significantly faster than nominal GDP: "Too much money chasing too few goods"...

The FED has long believed that inflation expectations create inflation. Prices are rising rapidly; yet financial markets do not expect inflation (stox would not have 22 multiple, Treasuries would not be @ 1.3%, & Gold would not be down on year). Sooner or later investor... ...expectations will change. In 2007 & 2008 housing prices fell, yet financial markets were in denial until they were not. This is the exact opposite. Sooner or later investors will sell negative real yield bonds & buy Gold. As that occurs inflation expectations will begin..

3 years ago Janet Yellen claimed we would not have another financial crisis in her lifetime. Now inflation is surging:

Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast wsj.com/articles/highe… ..Many analysts were skeptical of her claim; check my feed, I said the FED could prevent the largest bubble in US History from popping. But that meant unlimited balance sheet expansion & money supply growth. The FED & Yellen are now both claiming inflation is transitory. They..

I began to forecast inflation last Summer when the FED began the Great Monetary Expansion. I pointed out that Volcker ended the 1970's inflation by targeting money supply; therefore, the FED could create inflation by allowing money supply to grow at an unlimited rate.. ...last Winter, I said nominal GDP would surge given the tremendous fiscal & monetary accomodation, but no one could accurately forecast how much of this nominal GDP increase would be price increases and how much would be real economic growth...

Gold is now in the third month of consolidating; I view this chart pattern as a bullish consolidation as Managed Money speculative positions are now down 65% from previous highs. One fundamental positive last week, was India returning to a premium to world markets. Indian... & Chinese consumer demand were major support for Gold during the bear market. Both consumers backed off once Gold broke out last summer, we expect pent up demand out of these 2 huge buyers of physical Gold. So far, Chinese consumers do not appear to be on the bid. The dollar...

Below is a 90 year chart of the S&P 500 divided by Gold ratio. The Series 65 (Registered Investment Advisor Exam) has almost no mention of Gold's proven diversification qualities for portfolios, even though Gold outperformed stocks during the decades of 1930s (deflation), 1970s.. ..(inflation), & 2000s (2 financial crises). Most RIAs are sticking with the traditional 60-40 portfolio, hoping bonds will diversify equity risk, despite the fact that yields are at the lowest level in the history of the Republic. The exam asks if you expect inflation to occur..

Yesterday, Gold experienced its worse day in 7 years. Wall Street & Financial Media would like you to believe this occurred do to an improving economy. The 10 Year Note rose from last weeks lows of .5% to .65%. The $ rallied all of 1%; make no mistake about it, this was an... ...organized intervention in the Gold market. Would any rational investor decide to sell their Gold for the next 10 years and own a Treasury at .65% vs. .5%, with the Federal Reserve increasing money supply at a 20% + annual rate? Treasury wants you to buy Bonds, Wall Street..

The 2 most important real time indicators Nonfarm Payrolls & ISM Manufact., both pointed to a successful soft landing. Anyone who actually read the reports should have immediately dismissed them. Both had clear caveats in the opening paragraphs about new seasonal adjustments... ..So where does the U.S. economy actually stand. Leading indicators are at the same level as '01 & '08 hard landings as well as '11 & '16 soft landings. The last 3 yield curve inversions all led to recessions in the next 6-12 months; this continues to warn...

I just finished reading Doug Noland’s summary of the Federal Reserve’s Q3 2019 Z1: creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com . Here are my thoughts: total credit outstanding grew another $3.2T over the past year to $74.6T (348% of GDP); this is 4X the rate of GDP. Even J. Powell says this is not.. ..sustainable; Austrian economists call it a credit bubble, but this bubble is still expanding. Since foreigners stopped acquiring U.S. debt, U.S. financial markets and banking system need to finance this expansion or it reverses & pops. Banks, brokers, money markets, & hedge..

Polar opposites: My first job in the investment field was as an intern at a local brokerage firm in New Orleans in the summer of 1981. At that time the Federal Reserve was a couple of years into targeting money supply. President Carter had nominated Paul Volcker Jr. as... ..Fed Chairman in August of 1979. The $'s status as the reserve currency of the world was in serious doubt. U.S. investors convinced that inflation would never come down were dumping Treasury's at any price & panicking into Gold, which peaked in January of 1980 @ $875...

As a person dumb enough to trade precious metals futures professionally for the past 20 years, here is my 2 cents worth about the current correction in AU & AG. Anyone who thinks commercials have total control over pricing is wrong. If that were true AU & AG would be at $0.... ...bankers, both primary & central always short rallies, yet the price of AU went from $300 to $1900, between 2001 & 2011. There are 3 huge events which have occurred recently. 1) Commercial short interest is at a record and increasing as we fall through moving averages...

Treasury Notes & Bonds are the biggest bubble of our lifetime. Despite massive Treasury Bond Supply, Notes & Bonds have had a remarkable year. After an awful employment report and a major revision to last year's reports; Chair Powell claimed employment was strong: Bonds tanked! Commercial Banks have bought a record amount of Treasury's over the past 12 months. IMO, they are front running the Fed as they know the Fed has their back & will buy these securities off of them if necessary.