📈🧵The Trump administration's “reciprocal tariffs” were calculated by taking the 2024 US deficit in goods imports with a given country and dividing that by total goods imported from that country. This resulted in a “reciprocal” rate of 39% for the EU, which Trump then generously halved to arrive at what he describes as a “kind reciprocal” rate of 20% for the EU. One big contributor to the EU's goods trade imbalance with the US is Ireland, whose generous tax regime has attracted US multinationals. Excluding Ireland, the EU’s “reciprocal” rate would be 30% instead of 39%, and thus its “kind reciprocal” rate (after halving) would be 15%, instead of the imposed 20%.

Before investors bed in strategies and reset portfolios for a new year, we wanted to offer 10 contrarian insights that may challenge their views. Here is a brief selection. 🧵📈📊 In 2020 and 2021,yields on US BBB bonds fell below 2% for the first time in history, and debt issuance soared. A lot of this debt will have to be rolled over in 2025 at much higher rates. This is likely to suppress share buybacks.

A boom in auto exports through the pandemic has catapulted China up through the ranks and ahead of export powerhouses like Germany and South Korea. But there are signs that the explosive growth is prompting regulatory pushback from governments in developed markets, particularly Europe which is the destination for about a third of Chinese auto exports.

Despite the -60% fall in natural gas prices over the last three months, Europe’s energy woes continue. Among the big problems facing Europeans this winter is nuclear power—or rather a shortage of it, as 40% of France’s nuclear generation capacity remains out of action. Nuclear power is a key pillar of the European power grid, making up 11% of Europe’s installed capacity and generating 24% of electricity produced in 2021. And of Europe’s 114GW of nuclear capacity, more than half—61.4GW—is in France.

Strict Covid controls and an uncompromising new national security regime have driven a reversal in Hong Kong’s net migration flows since 2019. The first six months of 2022 saw a net outflow of 95,000 people, compared with a net inflow of 50,000 in the first half of 2019. Two and a half years of Covid controls on movement have deterred immigration from mainland China and the rest of the world. Meanwhile, the harsh national security law imposed in 2020 has encouraged more Hong Kong residents to leave.

The UK, Norway and the Netherlands produced 9% of the world’s natural gas up to 2005, when Europe’s gas supply was more secure. Since 2005 natural gas production fell sharply due to a combination of maturing gas fields, high production costs, low prices, high taxes and tighter environmental regulation.

Asia’s status as a net commodity importer makes it vulnerable to price shocks. But despite the recent run-up in prices of food and oil contributing to sharp increases in producer prices, it has been puzzling to see limited pass-through into Asian consumer price indexes. Disaggregating the data reveals that China, where state-owned enterprises have shouldered the burden of rising input costs without a commensurate increase in output prices, is a big outlier.

Chinese iron ore prices have tumbled as the country’s property market slows and local authorities expand restrictions on steel output, even as domestic steel prices remain elevated. The drop in iron ore prices represents the unwinding of a Covid-19 squeeze which drove both steel and iron ore prices to record highs in the first half of 2021.

If anyone still had doubts, this week European Central Bank meeting was a convincing reminder that negative interest rate policies and quantitative easing are here to stay. For the eurozone banking sector, this is a triple hit to profitability as reserves are taxed instead of being remunerated, interest rates are low and the yield curve is flat.