1/ Today we've (@EY_UKI) published a new report with @London_First on how firms have been coping since the end of the Transition Period. 🧵

londonfirst.co.uk/sites/default/… 2/ So how much disruption have they been facing? 21% say high, 54% say low and 23% say no disruption at all. But is all disruption equal?

1/ Quick thread. At the end of the third week of Brexit being "done", I can only say that I'm exhausted.

Immediate pressures on companies who have been trading goods have been on grappling with all of the new customs and regulatory requirements. 2/ It's clear that agrifood businesses have been the hardest hit due to the SPS checks and other requirements.

But for others, the shift from a distributor model to importer/exporter has been a challenge. This hasn't been helped by certain IT system not working as planned.

Been a lot of discussion recently around services trade in the deal between the UK and EU. Having read through the agreement over the past couple of days, my impressions👇

First off, services is definitely included. Question for service providers, is will it be enough?

1/N My overall impression is that the EU has offered among the best in class for its FTAs similar to Canada and Japan.

But this access is a far cry from access to the Single Market and how is constructed as part of a trade agreement for the EU reflects that.

2/n

1/ This morning the House of Lords sub-committee on Services published its report on UK-EU Professional and Business Services trade.

It's an important area of UK-EU trade. I could recount the stats on services, but I've done that elsewhere and everyone is bored of it now but... 2/ The trade barriers that are going to be erected are profound even in a deal scenario can be broken down into two categories:

- 1st are cross-cutting and will apply to all service providers.
- 2nd are specific to the PBS sector.

Lets try and cover the first lot first.

1/ While much of the focus in international trade at the moment has been on the B-word, global supply chains due to the Coronavirus pandemic & tariff wars. There have been a number of developments in the regulation of e-commerce that I find fascinating. My musings below 👇 2/ Looking at the US, @DHSgov recently published a report on combatting counterfeits and illicit trade. Most of the report is focused on improving enforcement at the border. Its the recommendations for third-party marketplaces are particularly interesting

bit.ly/3aFVOyR

The @CommonsEUexit have just published their latest report on what a no-deal Brexit would mean for the UK.

There's *a whole* chapter looking at what it would mean for the services industry - which if we're counting accounts for around 80% of the UK economy. THREAD It is based off the excellent evidence given by @G_Derrington from TechUK, Michael M from @icaew, Mickael L from @TheLawSociety & others.

Some important takeaways:

i) Services trade in a no-deal Brexit would be severely impacted for a whole host of different reasons.*

1/ Recently the @CommonsIntTrade launched an inquiry into trade in services. Given that services account for 79% of the UK economy and 83% of the workforce, pretty important stuff. To date its been largely lacking in the discussions on UK trade.

parliament.uk/business/commi… 2/ Many of the discussions have been on issues faced by trucks crossing the border. Now, before I'm yelled at for saying these aren't important. They are. But lets remember that the companies and drivers are providing a service, transport services.

1/ Everyone seems to be talking about WTO reform at the moment. Thought I would share some of my thoughts. This conversation has been a long time coming. The membership of the @WTO has been skirting around the issue since #MC10 in 2015 (and before @DmitryOpines & others whisper).

https://twitter.com/wto/status/1070622639419314176

2/ In 2015, the WTO held the 10th Ministerial Conference. This was the first time there was no agreement among all the countries (and territories) present were unable to agree to continue the Doha Development Round of trade negotiations. #DDA. They agreed to disagree.