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ArianaGic/Аріянॳць Profile picture
ArianaGic/Аріянॳць
@GicAriana
Writer, activist, political and legal analyst. Director @DI_IntCentreUA. Senior Advisor @ceed_toronto. Sanctioned by Russia.
Dec 15 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The talk of "peacekeeping troops in Ukraine" makes clear that western nations intend to continue to try coerce Ukraine into making concessions to Russia. The theory is that in exchange for concessions, Ukraine will be "rewarded" with western peacekeepers on the ground. BUT
1/9 1. One can only imagine the concessions Ukraine would have to make to Russia for Moscow to even begin to agree to any western peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine. It would have to be tantamount to Ukrainian loss of territory AND sovereignty.
2/9
Dec 1 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
“Everything we're doing on the border with Russia - & will do with Belarus & Ukraine - is aimed at discouraging & deterring an eventual aggressor. It's an actual investment into our peace"

Polish PM @donaldtusk on the construction of "Shield East" on Poland's eastern borders
1/7 Image Poland will build a defensive military infrastructure on its border with Ukraine. What this tells us is that Warsaw believes it is highly probable - if not likely - that Ukraine will be occupied and controlled by Russia right to the border with Poland.
2/7
Nov 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This is what happens when Western weakness invites aggression.

What weakness? Just a few examples:

🧵1/8 Weakness:
When Russian drones & missiles enter NATO airspace to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, NATO’s response is denial, suppression of information, dismissal, & an immoral defence of its inaction: “those missiles aren’t meant for us, but destined for Ukraine”.
2/8
Nov 26 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
It seems to me that most people do not understand that Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is now nearly 11 years long - NOT 3 years. Eleven.

Russia didn't only occupy Crimea in 2014, it also militarily invaded Ukraine's Donbas region - but did not declare so.
LONG🧵1/17 Moscow used the transparently false and absurd lie of "supporting" a "pro-Russian Ukrainian separatist uprising" in Ukraine. But let's be clear about this: it was Russian invasion of the country. Crimea and Donbas were part of ONE and the SAME Russian war effort.
2/17
Oct 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
All the disillusionment & rage many are expressing today about US policy toward Ukraine and Russia is the result of DENIAL of what DC has consistently and clearly conveyed by every policy and action since 2014. People needed to fight for better instead of swallowing shit.
1/4 I cannot express how much resistance and outright REFUSAL to accept ugly facts about US policy @RomanSohn and I encountered, with people preferring to ignore reality, and to fall for the fantasy lies fed to them by dishonest politicians, diplomats, analysts, and journalists.
2/4
Oct 15 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
If NATO nations cared about national and collective security as they proclaim to, we would be helping Ukraine defeat Russia militarily and politically, not insisting it isn’t a NATO nation so we have no obligation to help as if it were. We endanger Ukraine & ourselves otherwise. If you care about your national security, you don’t obscenely deny the fact of Russian missiles and drones violating your airspace on their way to destroy Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and kill Ukrainians, YOU SHOOT THEM DOWN.
Oct 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So much confirmed in Polish General Andrzejczak's statement:

1. Rather than helping Ukraine defeat Russia today, Poland is prepared to allow Russia to defeat and occupy Ukraine - right to Lviv - and THEN fight Moscow when it militarily attacks a NATO nation.
1/7 2. They are hoarding weapons for "when Russia attacks" instead of helping Ukraine defeat Russia today to ensure that Moscow cannot militarily attack a NATO nation tomorrow.
2/7
Oct 7 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
There is an overlooked and ill-understood fact of what Russian victory in Ukraine means: a bigger Russia, with more people to use to wage future wars.

More territory + more people = more powerful Russia. A more powerful Russia poses an even larger threat than it does today.
1/8 Every proposal that sees Russia continuing to occupy even some Ukrainian territory is not only a proposal of sacrifice of Ukrainian land and people, but a proposal to strengthen Russia.
2/8
Oct 2 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The "West German model" for NATO membership for Ukraine DE FACTO means
-partitioning Ukraine to reward Putin with the spoils of war and genocide
-coercing Ukraine to (minimally) make territorial concessions to Russia, with other potential concessions on the table as well
1/7 -UA does NOT emerge victorious, but occupied by Russia which will continue to wage war
-saving Putin's throne in Russia by giving him a victory - at least 30% of Ukraine's territory - he can claim to Russians
2/7
Sep 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Russian crimes in Ukraine meet the test for genocide in spades. There is no question that Moscow's war is genocidal. It is abundantly clear.

So why do we not see this FACT universally recognized?
1/5 There is a group - to which the United States belongs - which does not want to accept the moral and legal obligations the fact of Russian genocide triggers. No genocide, no specific obligations. No crime, no penalty. Deny reality. Easy peasy.
2/5
Jul 16 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
We need to paint an honest picture about reality.

On the current trajectory, the Western vision for Ukraine's "victory" will at best lead to a nation plagued by debt, with a totally decimated economy, with no infrastructure, no hospitals or schools. No health or education.
🧵1/ There will be no children and no youth to speak of. It will be a nation of elderly with no one to care for them. A nation of amputees, with adults and children having suffered traumatic injuries from the front lines or missiles on their beds.
2/
Jun 25 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The White House says "there are more effective ways to hold Russia accountable for its actions than designating them as a StateSponsor of Terrorism," citing "downside effects" as reason for not doing so
💩💩

The US is protecting US companies which continue to do business in RU🧵 Image If the US were to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism - something @RomanSohn, @HopkoHanna, and I have been calling for publicly for years (see quoted tweet from 2020) - then American companies would have to leave Russia.
2/7
Jun 22 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Powerful and truly outstanding piece by @calxandr calling for full and robust support to help Ukraine in its legal right to self defence to defeat fascist Russia.

I urge all to read this piece. I support and endorse each and every word.

theglobeandmail.com/opinion/articl… While I could quote tweet the entire article, I will highlight only some of the points which are rarely made by people of Mr Alexander’s status and are, tragically, not part of main stream discussion, as they ought to be.
Jun 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Great research by @Textyorgua_Eng proves with hard core data what has been denied by many - that there's been a massive campaign in the US to turn public opinion from an originally positive attitude to supporting Ukraine toward anti-Ukrainian sentiments.

texty.org.ua/projects/11261…
Image The research clearly identifies who the main driving forces of that campaign anti-Ukraine have been.

Public support for Ukraine in the US didn't just dwindle because people got "fatigued from war". It was intentionally driven down by those pursuing their own malicious agenda.
Jun 2 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
“Russia wants to destroy us. Our only hope of remaining whole and at peace, especially after agreeing to denuclearize, is to be part of NATO. PLEASE accept us into the defensive alliance.”

“Okay. Sounds good. One day it shall be. But not now.”

“When?”

“Some day.” “What about a Membership Action Plan?”

“Not now.”

“When?”

“We don’t want to antagonize Russia.”

“We don’t want to be invaded.”

“Don’t worry.”

“Russia has invaded us. Avoiding ‘provoking’ them didn’t work. Please help us!”

“Sorry, can’t.”

“WHY NOT?”

“You’re not a member.”
Jun 1 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Sweden & Finland were given NATO membership in recognition of the threat Russia poses to the 2 nations. They were brought under NATO's protective defensive umbrella. Ukraine & Georgia were not given the same protection before RU invaded despite pleas due to the RU threat. WHY?🧵 In 2008, at the NATO Summit in Bucharest, NATO declared that both Georgia and Ukraine would one day receive the NATO membership they should, but were not provided with the action plan to do so.
WHY? 🧵
May 2 • 22 tweets • 3 min read
We need an international “Justice Coalition” for Russian genocide against Ukrainians.

From the *very* onset of Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine *in 2014*, its criminal actions went beyond a war of territorial conquest, and pursued a GENOCIDAL objective.
1/22 Russian political & military leadership, &ordinary Russians in uniform & without them, have been committing deliberate, organized, systemic, and conscious actions, directed by the Russian state, to exterminate Ukrainians as a group with a shared collective national identity.
2/
Apr 29 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
For anyone talking about Ukraine reaching a "negotiated settlement" of any kind, at any point in time, with Russia should recall that in Izyum, the genocidal Muscovite barbarians cut off the genitals of a BOY before EXECUTING him. His tortured body was exhumed from a mass grave. Image For anyone talking about Ukraine reaching a "negotiated settlement" of any kind, at any point in time, with Russia should recall that in Bucha, the genocidal Muscovite barbarians gang raped a SEVEN YEAR OLD girl before executing her.

Apr 27 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Ukrainian "victory" cannot be limited to the existence of some portion of Ukraine maintaining its sovereignty and statehood. A rump state is NOT victory. "As long as a piece of you exists" shouldn't be tolerated as a definition of victory because it nothing other than loss. Ukrainian "victory" cannot be the mere state of partial existence. Ukrainian "victory" cannot be defined by Russia not realizing its full genocidal goals to completely exterminate the Ukrainian nation and people. Any degree of genocidal success is not to be tolerated or accepted.
Apr 25 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Consider: Moscow of the USSR implemented this genocidal policy in Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, etc. Many of today's citizens of former Soviet captured nations are nothing other than Russian squatters who forcibly changed the national identities of these occupied nations. During the Soviet Union, ethnic Russians were sent to forcibly shape the identities of the occupied nations in Russia's image. Those who opposed the Russification of their nations - from language to culture - were criticized as being "ethno-nationalist" "extremists" and so on.
Apr 24 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
Modern Russia is not just a captured state run by an authoritarian criminal mafia regime - it has also willingly become a true outlaw state, blatantly attacking the rule-based international order.

We should be doing everything to defeat Russia before it strikes militarily.
1/17 Putin’s Russia is a terrorist state whose menace eclipses any other rogue actor on the planet since the Second World War. Russia’s threats of unprovoked use of nuclear weapons endanger humanity.
2/