🚨 US GDP rose 3.0% in Q2, beating expectations of 2.6% rise.

However, the headline figure masks deeper weakness beneath the surface.

Economic growth was inflated by a historic collapse in imports, not by strong domestic demand.

Here is what the data really says.

(thread) 👇 Consumer spending rose at an annualized pace of 1.4% last quarter.

This was slightly below expectations and followed a 0.5% increase in Q1.

Together, these mark the SLOWEST two-quarter stretch of consumption growth since the 2020 pandemic.

⚠️US LABOR MARKET IS WEAKENING AS IF A RECESSION HAS ARRIVED⚠️

Key jobs report for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 6.

Many experts say the labor market is in a good place including the Fed.

The reality, however, is completely different.

Thread🧵1/13 In October, the US economy officially created 12,000 jobs, according to the BLS estimates released Friday, 1st of November.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with forecasts.

These are preliminary estimates and will be revised over time.

2/13

Last week, US Inflation CPI and PPI were released.

However, the Fed's preferred core PCE is due on April 26.

When translating CPI, PPI into PCE, it does not look great.

Thus, if the current inflation trend continues it can spur even ~20% correction before the election.

🧵1/10 The March headline CPI inflation rate rose to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.4%, from 3.2% in February.

This is the 36th consecutive month with the CPI inflation at or above 3% and the 2nd straight monthly increase.
2/10