🚨Is the US market in a bubble?

Everyone has an opinion on whether US stocks are in a bubble.

Some argue the AI mania is nearing its end, while others say it is only beginning.

To cut through the noise, we can examine 5 key areas.

Let's start with LEVERAGE. (a thread)👇 First, US margin debt rose another $11 BILLION in December to a record $1.23 TRILLION.

Margin debt is money investors borrow from brokers to buy more stocks than they could with their own cash.

Over the last 12 month, it has soared +$326 billion, or +36%.

⚠️2025 was the 2nd-WORST year for US layoffs since the Great Financial Crisis.

Hiring was the weakest in at least a DECADE.

What sectors were hit the most?

Why are companies cutting jobs at this pace in the world's largest economy?

Let's break it down carefully. (a thread)👇 US-based employers' job cut announcements spiked +58% YoY last year, to 1,206,374, the highest since 2020 Crisis.

This was the 7th highest annual total since 1989, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Excluding 2020, this was the worst year since the Financial Crisis.

🚨 US GDP rose 3.0% in Q2, beating expectations of 2.6% rise.

However, the headline figure masks deeper weakness beneath the surface.

Economic growth was inflated by a historic collapse in imports, not by strong domestic demand.

Here is what the data really says.

(thread) 👇 Consumer spending rose at an annualized pace of 1.4% last quarter.

This was slightly below expectations and followed a 0.5% increase in Q1.

Together, these mark the SLOWEST two-quarter stretch of consumption growth since the 2020 pandemic.

⚠️US LABOR MARKET IS WEAKENING AS IF A RECESSION HAS ARRIVED⚠️

Key jobs report for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 6.

Many experts say the labor market is in a good place including the Fed.

The reality, however, is completely different.

Thread🧵1/13 In October, the US economy officially created 12,000 jobs, according to the BLS estimates released Friday, 1st of November.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with forecasts.

These are preliminary estimates and will be revised over time.

2/13

Last week, US Inflation CPI and PPI were released.

However, the Fed's preferred core PCE is due on April 26.

When translating CPI, PPI into PCE, it does not look great.

Thus, if the current inflation trend continues it can spur even ~20% correction before the election.

🧵1/10 The March headline CPI inflation rate rose to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.4%, from 3.2% in February.

This is the 36th consecutive month with the CPI inflation at or above 3% and the 2nd straight monthly increase.
2/10