After the first day of preliminary talks on a new Dutch government, the prospect of a Wilders cabinet looks more remote. Mainly because the two parties the PVV needs to have any chance of building a coalition – VVD and NSC – both have grave reservations. dutchnews.nl/2023/11/omtzig… The right-wing VVD say they're prepared to support a "centre-right cabinet" (their words, don't write in) of PVV, NSC and BBB "from parliament". Taken together with Dilan Yesilgöz's earlier statements, that's a firm sign that they won't join a coalition.
rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/video/v…

We're already starting to see possible Dutch coalitions put forward in the wake of yesterday's election.
So here's a run-through of the permutations.
Using stroopwafels. The PVV has 37 seats, so Geert Wilders will get first crack at forming a cabinet.
The only realistic combination for him is a partnership with VVD and NSC.
This coalition has 81 seats – a majority of five (the dotted line shows we've got more than a full stroopwafel).

Whatever the outcome of tomorrow's Dutch election, the task of forming a coalition is going to be a logistical nightmare.
Let me try to explain.
Through the medium of stroopwafels. Let's take the latest opinion poll by I&O as our guide.
That gives the PVV (Wilders) 28 seats, PvdA/GroenLinks (Timmermans) 27, VVD (Yesilgöz) 27 and NSC (Omtzigt) 21.
The top 3 are effectively neck-and-neck.

Extraordinary to see how Trumpist partisan milkmaid
@EvaVlaar
manages to pack at least 10 lies into two and a half minutes of deranged commentary on Fox News about the #DutchFarmers protests. Let's take a walk through them.
Lie #1. 'This is about the Dutch government stealing our farmers' land.'
Farmers who stop working will get 130% of the value of their land and assets under the environmental planning agency's recommendations. Where do I sign up to be robbed on these terms? boerenbusiness.nl/mineralen/arti…

Extraordinary to see how Trumpist partisan milkmaid @EvaVlaar manages to pack at least 10 lies into two and a half minutes of deranged commentary on Fox News about the #DutchFarmers protests. Let's take a walk through them. Lie #1. 'This is about the Dutch government stealing our farmers' land.'
Farmers who stop working will get 130% of the value of their land and assets under the environmental planning agency's recommendations. Where do I sign up to be robbed on these terms? boerenbusiness.nl/mineralen/arti…

After a couple of weeks' respite, I'm afraid it's time for a thread on coronavirus in the Netherlands. Because the numbers aren't looking great and the preparations for an autumn wave are non-existent. Let alone a summer wave. #zomergolf The trend in the testing numbers has been pretty encouraging since the last peak of 70,000 positive tests a day at the start of March.
Universal testing ended on April 11, by which time the number had dropped below 7,000, and it continued to fall to 1,500 by the end of the month.

I'd been planning a thread on reasons to be cautiously hopeful about Dutch coronavirus infections. Then I got distracted. In hindsight that was a good thing, because in the last week much of the hope has evaporated – just as a new wave of magical thinking has broken out. 1/16 The magical thinking is that 'hospital numbers are low, omicron is mild, we can relax and treat it like a flu now.' None of these statements is wholly false, but taken together they're leading to some rash and premature decisions. 2/16

I wish I could ignore it, but professional bullshitician* Thierry Baudet's latest foray into the Covid numbers is almost a work of art. Let's take a closer look. (1/16)
(*portmanteau of 'bullshit' and 'statistician'. You're welcome) I mean, that chart looks alarming, right? Baudet certainly thinks so and intends to ask questions in parliament about the 5,500 unexplained "excess deaths" he's found in the 6-month period from weeks 15-40 (mid-April to mid-October). (2/16)

A lot of talk at the moment about stricter rules for non-vaccinated people. Hugo de Jonge said yesterday we were dealing 'increasingly with a pandemic of the unvaccinated'. But leaving aside the moral and legal implications, the latest figures don't support that claim. The latest RIVM press release says 80% of people in the ICU are unvaccinated. But that refers to a study published nearly 2 weeks ago based on data from September. rivm.nl/nieuws/4-op-de…

You can see from these latest charts that the #coronavirus infection rate is slowing down almost everywhere - and fastest in those countries that restricted movement first. (I don't put different countries on one graph because a) it keeps it simple and b) testing regimes vary.) The coloured gridlines represent exponential growth rates. Red = 41.3% (doubles in 2 days). Blue = 26.0% (3 days). Orange = 18.9% (4 days). Green = 14.9% (5 days). Purple = 12.3% (6 days). Yellow = 10.4% (7 days). Raw figures are shown beneath the charts as a guide.