Graham Stephan Profile picture
Real Estate Investor, Car Enthusiast, 4M+ Subs on YouTube. Newsletter - https://t.co/iQGby1s7dc Insta - https://t.co/LwD4Qgd2eH
প্রদীপ্ত মৈত্র (Pradipto Moitra) Profile picture Heavenly 🔶 Deva Profile picture Paolo Porsia Profile picture Jaela (she/they) Profile picture Balaji Venkataraman Profile picture 7 added to My Authors
Jan 22 13 tweets 7 min read
I started writing on @SubstackInc in 2022 to dive deeper into investing and finance concepts.

10 months in, we just crossed 30,000 readers! 🥳🎉

Here are the top 10 articles from my newsletter that will make you a smarter investor in 2023 🧵 @SubstackInc #1 – Storm on the Horizon

America depends on China for manufacturing 20% of its day-to-day products.

Few of us are paying attention to the crisis brewing in the East. Here's everything you need to know:

grahamstephan.substack.com/p/storm-china
Jan 19 13 tweets 4 min read
Let's start with a thought experiment.

How much do you think you need to retire right now? Now read one of my favorite stories.
Jan 17 7 tweets 2 min read
5 charts showing the current state of housing market: Mortgages now cost almost half of the household income. Image
Jan 11 11 tweets 4 min read
🚨Breaking🚨

The House of Representatives just voted to pass new rules that will significantly undercut the ability of the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE).

In totally unrelated news, OCE is the same body that investigates insider trading by Congressional Members 🧵 The New York Times had published a report on Congress trading last September and the findings were incredible!

- 97 Congress Members flagged
- 3,700 trades with a potential conflict of interest
- Stock plays with staggering accuracy
Jan 5 14 tweets 5 min read
2023 is a really confusing year to invest.

Stocks seem unattractive in the short term.

Real estate has started declining, but Fed rates are poised to drop further.

T-bills look attractive – but there might be even more lucrative options.

Here's my plan to navigate the maze... Image Here's my current portfolio:
35% real estate
35% stocks
22% treasuries
4% alternative assets
3% $BTC and $ETH

But I plan to make some changes in 2023...
Jan 2 11 tweets 3 min read
The best way to create long term wealth is to Dollar Cost Average into an Index fund.

It's boring but you'll beat almost everyone who tries something else.

Here are the top 5 index funds to invest in 2023: 1. $VTSAX: Total US Stock Market

This index fund provides investors exposure to the entire U.S. equity market.

10-Year Performance: +236%
Expense ratio: 0.04%

This fund would be the cornerstone of Warren Buffet's idea of never betting against America!
Dec 30, 2022 13 tweets 18 min read
I finally took the plunge and started writing online this year and it's been one of the best decisions I have taken!

Here are the top 10 writers I take inspiration from and some of their best work.

Must read 🧵 Your Life in Weeks: @waitbutwhy

Tim has an amazing ability to put complex ideas into perspective. This one shows how short and valuable our life really is.

waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/life-w…
Dec 28, 2022 16 tweets 7 min read
Jack Byrne, the chairman of Geico, was golfing with friends when he made a bet: He would pay $10,000 to anybody who hit a hole-in-one.

They just had to pay an $11 "premium".

Every investor there reached into their wallets except one: Warren Buffett. 🧵 Buffett said the $11 premium was too much given the odds! His friends thought this absurd given the potential reward.

But he used the same principle for an $11 wager as an $11 million investment.

Buffett applied this during the 80s insurance mania to strike at the right time.
Dec 22, 2022 18 tweets 5 min read
A house used to be a safe investment. Not anymore.

Home prices are falling. Mortgages locked in last year are exceeding the value of the house and driving buyers underwater.

72% of recent buyers regret their purchase.

Looks like there's no way out 🧵 Buyers were willing to pay any amount as housing prices shot up irrationally last year, but prices are correcting now.

As prices fall, 40% of homes bought this year have less than 10% equity left to tap.

Payment to income ratios are also rising.
Dec 7, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
Right now is one of the best entry points the stock market has seen in the last 15 years. If you wished you could go back in time and invest in 2009, now would be that opportunity

But, there are over 2,672 index funds to choose from

Here are the top 5 that can make you rich: 1. $VTSAX: Total US Stock Market

This index fund provides investors exposure to the entire U.S. equity market.

10-Year Performance: +236%
Expense ratio: 0.04%

This fund would be the cornerstone of Warren Buffet's idea of never betting against America!
Dec 6, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read
The housing market is in an incredible turmoil right now.

The U.S REIT Index is down 23% YTD, Consumer confidence is now at the 2008 crisis level and mortgage rates are at an all-time high!

Even Blackstone's flagship $125B Real Estate fund has limited withdrawals 👇 There is a growing concern about the long-term health of the Real Estate market with key investors running for the exits.

Blackstone's fund, which invests mainly in rental housing and industrials, was hit with $1.8 bn in redemptions in October and another $1.3bn in November.
Dec 5, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Here are 3 things that you must do before the year-end to save thousands of $$$: Contribute to your 401(k) - You can invest up to $20,500 into your 401(k) plan that you can adjust against your taxable income!

The golden rule is that if your employer offers a 401(k) match, always take it! Image
Dec 1, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read
1/ Ronald Read fixed cars at a gas station for 25 years and swept floors at JCPenny for 17 years.

For those who knew Ronald closely, there wasn't much else worth mentioning.

It was only when he died in 2014, he made international headlines. He had a net worth of $8 Million🧵 Image 2/ His friends and neighbors had no idea about the scale of wealth Read had amassed as he was very thrifty.

Read used to have a safety pin on his jacket so that he could continue wearing it and his dressing was so shabby that someone once paid for his meal at a restaurant.
Nov 30, 2022 11 tweets 4 min read
There is a storm brewing in the housing market.

Single-family home sales are imploding and housing just had its largest MoM drop in a decade!

CA and TX markets have seen a 15% drop in 6 months and consumer confidence is now at the 2008 crisis level.

Here's what's going on🧵 All of this started with the Fed raising the interest rate. The 30-year mortgage rates have just crossed 7%!

For some context on how bad this is, for a $500,000 mortgage, you end up paying nearly $439,000 more over 30 years as the interest rate increases from 3% to 7%.
Nov 28, 2022 18 tweets 6 min read
1/ Over the last 12 years of my investing journey, I have researched and analyzed every single aspect of building credit.

Here's how you can get to a perfect credit score for $0: Image 2/ Cheap credit is free money - You can get the lowest interest rates any time you want!

A 2% difference in interest rates on a $100K loan will save you ~$14K over a 10-year period.

This is why improving your credit score is extremely important.
Nov 23, 2022 11 tweets 3 min read
Financial independence isn't a choice any more - It's a necessity.

Interest rates are unpredictable, real wages are falling, and inflation keeps rising.

But you can go from 0 in savings to $1M in 10 years: By focusing on what you can control.

Here's a step-by-step guide 👇🧵 $1M might seem like a daunting goal. But it comes down to simple numbers:

Wealth = Savings x Investing
Savings = Income - Expenses

Let's unpack the three parts to build wealth:
1. Savings
2. Income
3. Investing
Nov 22, 2022 11 tweets 4 min read
🚨 After more than a decade of unstoppable growth, rental prices have begun to crash 🚨

- Q3 demand went negative for the first time in 30 years!

- Congress is introducing a law to stop Wall Street from buying homes

- 58% of rental markets are down Month-over-Month👇 And it's not just the rental market that's taking the hit.

The housing market has also shown significant weakness in the last 6 months due to rising mortgages and increasing inventories.

Some markets across California and Texas have seen ~15% drop in just 6 months.
Nov 6, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read
So you've won the $1.6 Billion Powerball Jackpot and now have 10x-ed your friends circle.

Here's how to manage all that money: First, decide on the payout: Annuity or Lumpsum?

Annuity: ~$55 Million every year for 30 years.

Lumpsum: A one-time payout of ~$782 Million.

Since 2014, no one has chosen the annuity option on Powerball winnings.

Now, the worst part - Taxes
Nov 3, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read
The average investor is terrible at investing long-term. Even 3-Month Treasury Bills outperformed them.

The thing is, great investing choices can be offset - by a few common mistakes.

Here's how you can avoid making the same mistakes👇 Image If you can correct just one mistake, it's this: Stay invested!

The biggest reason for underperformance is that on average, investors are not in the market on the best days.

Between 1992-2021, if you had missed out on just the 10 best days, your returns would have halved! Image
Oct 27, 2022 12 tweets 4 min read
The bedrock of our retirement plan is the 401(k). Usually, the 401(k) contains a boring mix of pre-approved mutual funds and ETFs that are very safe.

But, Congress has just done the unthinkable with the introduction of a new act that allows riskier assets into 401k🧵 Image The bill, titled the "Retirement Savings Modernization Act", aims to ensure that "average investors have access to private markets and can diversify their holdings".

Investments would be allowed in VC firms, private equity, real estate and even cryptocurrencies! Image
Oct 14, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read
🚨 Unbelievable 🚨

A Wall Street Journal report shows thousands of Federal officials trading stocks in companies they oversee.

- More than 2,600 officials flagged at EPA, FTC, DOD, etc.

- Precise trades made right before enforcement actions!

The game is rigged👇 Image The Journal analyzed more than 31,000 disclosure forms made by 12,000 senior employees.

~60 officials at agencies like the FTC and the Justice Department, reported trading stocks right before their agencies announced enforcement actions against those companies. Image