The economic fallout from the Strait of Hormuz isn't a hypothetical—it's already there. Most people in Europe and the US just can't feel it yet (bar gasoline price). A thread on our new @NewStatesman article: what's heading our way, and why the burden won't be shared equally. 1/ 2/ One fifth of global LNG, 1/3 of crude oil, nearly half of sulphur — these export shares normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz. That flow has effectively stopped. Local storage is filling up, production sites are shutting in. You can't flip an oil field back on overnight.

Is economic growth decoupling from resource use & environmental impact?

My new paper shows the answer depends to some extent on the way we measure GDP, which changes over time.

This allows for finding contradictory results in different studies.
1/9
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
GDP is an accounting convention. Its measurement depends on social agreement, not on natural constants; it is revised for a variety of reasons. This can lead to rather different rates of change: look at US energy intensity in Schurr‘s seminal study with his vs today‘s GDP data 2/

Who stands to lose the most wealth from ambitious climate policy that could lead to fossil-fuel asset stranding?

In @Joule_CP we find it's mainly the wealthiest 1% and 10% of people and draw conclusions for the political economy of the energy transition.
https://t.co/PCByka1zbJcell.com/joule/fulltext…
Current doubling-down in wealthy countries on fossil fuels - whether for energy security or profit - risks producing a new gen of long-lived fossil-fuel assets.

We argue this shouldn't deter governments from ambitious climate policy, for fear of e.g. endangering pension wealth.

To tackle climate change the world is missing more than $1 trillion in investments each year.

Who should pay?

In @ScienceMagazine, we find wealthy countries should contribute up to 90% of global mitigation finance. @Jayati1609 @NFolbre 1/9
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… This finding leverages the framework of ‘fair-share regional contributions’ published by @shonali_p, @setupel, @SKreibiehl & co-authors, where the authors calculate fair investment shares according to ‘need’, ‘responsibility’, & ‘capability’. 2/9 science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Tackling climate change requires closing many oil and gas fields. Who owns these stranded assets? In @NatureClimate we trace $1.4 trillion in losses at the field to their ultimate owners and show that mainly private persons in rich countries stand to lose. nature.com/articles/s4155… Previous studies focus on physical stranded assets which are mostly located in non-OECD regions (stage 1). But this does not capture the financial beneficiaries of oil & gas extraction: 56% of ultimate owners are in the OECD, compared with 39% of physical stranded assets. 2/11

A global energy transition means a massive expansion in the production of low-carbon products. But where will these industries be? In @Joule_CP I discuss the role of industrial policy based on recent solar & wind anti-dumping tariffs. 1/6 authors.elsevier.com/a/1exmf925JEJx… These tariffs aim to give the U.S. a competitive edge in solar & wind manufacturing against industrial policies elsewhere. But if we want a global transition, should we aim for industrial policy competition or cooperation? 2/6