Thread: On what the polling data says about ANC, DA, MK and EFF support since the 2024 election. There have been 4 substantive political polls since the 2024 election: Two by the SRF, one by SABI and one by the SAIRR. Here is what they found, and what I think they say. 1/16 First, some methodological notes. The individual methodologies are all available for each poll (on the relevant website) but broadly, they all similar: registered voters only, nationally representative and, with the exception of the SAIRR, with a 58% turnout model. 2/16

Long thread. Just watched an interesting discussion with Joel Pollak on the Jewish Report (you can watch it here: ). It important to watch regardless of your views, Pollak incredibly helpful in understanding the Trump administration. 1/12 Pollak says Trump has 3 broad problems with SA. I am going to be brief, Pollak much more detailed: 1. SA’s relationship with China, which abuses global free trade. 2. SA’s long-standing infatuation with terrorists and rouge states. 3. Many of SA’s domestic policies. 2/12

Thread. To what extent does the ANC dominate SA politics? The ANC’s electoral decline has led many to argue its influence is at its weakest. Is that true? Here is a lateral take that suggests otherwise. 1/9 There are different ways to influence political thinking. The most obvious, and the goal of most parties, is a dominant majority and power. With that comes the ability to shape the national zeitgeist. 2/9

Thread. Some thoughts on the Ward 87 by-election in JHB. I live in ward 87. First time I have actually been in a ward with a by-election. Campaigning, by all parties, has in my opinion been incredibly weak. Here is my perspective as a resident. 1/13 First, there are three overwhelmingly crises. And I do not use that word lightly. These are profound problems, with enormous implications. 1. Water. 2. Electricity and 3. Roads. That is before a myriad smaller serious problems. These are the obvious humdingers. 2/13

Thread: Thoughts on the collapse of the radical or hard left. Let us start with the SACP. Moribund for some time now, its ranks and relevance, especially among the youth (the young communists are effectively non-existent) have been decimated. Its influence on the ANC gone. 1/15 The EFF went backwards in this election. Its ideology is so impenetrable (a mish mash of thinkers) and convoluted, it results in nothing but confusion. Its talk of a revolution has been revealed as no more than marketing. Its brand is defined by hypocrisy and hate. 2/15

1/11. The Sunday Times has chosen to make this story it’s front page lead. It looked at SA this week and decided this was the most important news story out there. So, it must be dynamite, right? Some pretty explosive stuff. Let’s look and see: timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/n… 2/11. The story says, “The ANC chair said his criticism of Zille was based on what he sees and reads when he logs on to social media.” I have looked at Zille’s account. I can’t see anything problematic, even related to this story. Happy to be proven wrong.

Some thoughts on Gauteng. It is a remarkable fact that South Africa’s most populous, most wealthy, most urbanized and industrialised province is the one all political parties take the least seriously. As a result it is falling apart. 1/9 That parties do not take it seriously is evidenced by who is elected there. I am sure there are some good people, but between the ANC, DA and EFF it is an afterthought. Each party has other provincial priorities. Their best and brightest are elsewhere. 2/9

A thread on the interview with Verashni Pillay about the GNU negotiations, on the Dan Corder Show (DCS) last night. First, some context. The point of the DCS seems to be to mock and ridicule politics and politicians. This is good and necessary. Humour can bring insight. 1/22 Of course, that doesn’t mean the DCS is itself exempt from the same treatment. So really, this review is brought to you in the spirit of the DCS, and I am sure Corder and Pillay will embrace it in that fashion. Goose, Gander, etc. 2/22

Thread. Why DGs are political appointments. Some first principles: DGs should not be political appointments. In the UK, a list of candidates are chosen by an independent body (the Civil Service Commissioners) and a recommendation made to the PM, who can accept or rejected. 1/11 In SA, a list of candidates is formulated by a selection committee, as set out in Executive Protocol 2020, from the DPSA. In SA, “only the head of a national department and the Office of the Premier may bear the designation of Director-General.” 2/11 See:dpsa.gov.za/dpsa2g/documen…

Thread. There are various ways of analysing the grand choices that now face political parties. One frame of reference is through purpose - that is, the reason why those parties exist. Let us look at four of them, the ANC, DA, EFF and MK. 1/11 There are two factors at play: 1. The desire to shape the state, with the view to impacting on quality of life. 1. The desire to achieve some or other political goal. Each party is subject to a bit of both, but they weigh differently. 2/11

A thread on “squeeze messaging” and why it is powerful. During the final weeks of any campaign, the emphasis shifts from winning new voters to ensuring your core base turns out on Election Day. 1/14 Squeeze messages help you do this. They are typically used by bigger parties on smaller parties (the ANC on the DA; the DA on smaller parties). They use fear to a degree but also size. Importantly though, they must be credible and believable. 2/14

Thread. The ANC NEC’s dilemma: Do a deal with MK, get Zuma; do a deal with the EFF, get Malema. What the ANC has done, over decades, is create radicalised angry martyrs, who consolidate their own constituency (once part of the ANC) to position themselves as power brokers. 1/10 So, now you have the ANC (an incompetent, compromised visionless collection of has-beens), MK (a demagogic collection of corrupt ethno-nationalists) and the EFF (a fascist collection of angry radicals). All marching towards each other. 2/10

A thread: "Why Gauteng is so important to the ANC". The following thread looks how central Gauteng is to the ANC’s 2024 national electoral prospects, and maps how dire the situation looks for the party provincially (with nice graphs!). 1|25 Let us start with the big picture. This graph maps the ANC’s vote share in Gauteng, on the provincial and PR ballot, for each national and local election since 1999. Provincial elections in dark green, local elections in light green. 2|25

1|18 There seems to be a general misunderstanding of the EFF’s proposed national shutdown. It isn’t to protest, disrupt or intimidate, it is to test the revolutionary waters. Here is how: 2|18 Whatever you make of the EFF pseudo-revolutionary credentials externally, it is important to understand that, internally, the EFF absolutely regards itself as a revolutionary movement.

1|24 Long Thread. The DA is losing legitimacy, here is why: A look at the DA electoral performance over the last 20 years, in terms of votes won, and by party leader, with a view to some of the fundamental problems facing that party, and which PR won’t solve. 2|24 Here is the total number of votes the DA won in every election since 2004:
2004: 1,931,201 (Leon)
2006: 1,608,154 (Leon)
2009: 2,945,829 (Zille)
2011: 3,216,006 (Zille)
2014: 4,091,584 (Zille)
2016: 4,028,765 (Maimane)
2019: 3,621,188 (Maimane)
2021: 2,543,764 (Steenhuisen)

Thread. Some thoughts on Action SA. The party has two competing impulses: 1st, a disdain for the ANC and a desire to remove it from power. 2nd, a disdain for the DA, and a desire to replace it as the official opposition, absorb its representatives and eat into its market. 1|11 This has produced a conflict, between ASA on paper (opposed to the ANC) and its real world internal culture (the DA is the enemy - ASA is constituted almost entirely of ex-DA representatives, each of who feels aggrieved about the DA, and wishes to enact revenge on it). 2|11

Thread. Cyril Ramaphosa has yet to say a single directly critical thing about Jacob Zuma, and how he conducted himself as President. In the other direction, he has had a lot of positive things to say about Zuma (see here for example: inside-politics.org/2019/01/11/the…) 1/10 Ramaphosa now has Part 1 of the Zondo Report, which is damning about Zuma. He also has the ANC’s 8 January speech to deliver. It would seem the perfect opportunity for Ramaphosa to directly and honesty address Zuma’s legacy. 2/10

In 2008 @RyanCoetzee, then DA CEO, started the DA Young Leaders program. Today, its alumni include Solly Malatsi, Cilliers Brink, Nicole Graham, Gwen Ngwenya, Ashor Sarupen, Geordin Hill-Lewis, Mbali Ntuli, Magashule Gana, Mirelle Wegner, Siviwe Gwarube, many others besides. 1/4 They have, between them, risen to the highest ranks, as political heads, as public representatives and within government. MPs, MPLs, Councilors, Mayors. The names above only touch on the full cohort now out there and in the DA. Too many to mention. 2/4

1/16 Thread on some of the ANC’s more infamous election quotes. The mad, the bad, and the sad. Let’s start with an oldie but a goodie - That time the ANC said service delivery was only for people who voted ANC:

https://twitter.com/quotesanc/status/1021042398460284933

2/16 That time the ANC said it won’t be pressured by people using their vote to demand better deliver, because those were “dirty votes”:

https://twitter.com/QuotesAnc/status/1023128856671207426

Thread. One of the great contradictions of our age is almost ubiquitous ANC corruption, across the board, well-evidenced and serious, and yet not a single ANC cadre (certainly not anyone in high office) who has ever admitted to actually being guilty of corruption. 1/8 The result is a curious set of circumstances, whereby you have the president endlessly promising to end corruption, which he says is an acute problem, and pleading with his members for a culture of clean governance, and yet clearly no one ever thinks he is talking about them. 2/8

Regards IEC decision, there will be an impulse among some, who regard the law as inherently moral, to argue, because it was lawful, the IEC’s decision was “right”. It was lawful, fine, but it was also to accommodate incompetence. That is a problem. 1/4 Just because something is lawful, doesn’t mean it is morally pure. A multi-billion Rand VIP protection budget is lawful, but ethically questionable. Just like “the law” allows for every cabinet member to have a new BMW. 2/4