PwC Budget and Economic Outlook 2025.

Let's look at the 2024 so far, and what to expect this year 2025.

Thread!!! Seven (7) key issues to consider in 2025.

No. 1 to 3 is crucial

Find below the details of the State governments equity stake in the 11 DisCos across the country.

State were allocated specific equity rights in DisCos based on 2018 @NERCNG valuations.

Thread!!! Abuja DisCo

Private (transcorp power) - 60%

FCT - 11.20%
Niger - 8.30%
Kogi - 4.20%
Nasarawa - 3.20%

FG - 13.10%

Let us look at some relevant data regarding this Tax reforms Bills.

I attached my excel template below, you can use it to put any assumptive data you may have.

I used GDP data as a proxy for derivation/consumption model. Because it is technically impossible to get derivation/taxable supply data based on locational consumption, I decide to used GDP which may also not be accurate with real figures.

Let me put figure to this VAT proposed formular and see how it is.

Take, for example, the following states
generates the below as VAT for a particular month.

Kano = N30b
Lagos = N100b
Rivers = N80b

Total = N210b

(You can skip to the last thread for a summary)

Thread!!! Based on the proposed law:

FG will take 10% = N21b
What remains is N189b shareable to state & LG (90%)

60% of the N189b to be shared based on derivation.

Based on the above, the derivation % is
(VAT generated by states/total VAT)

Let's look at some interesting data regarding the electricity sector.

The performance data for electricity in the country is very unfavourable when you remove the 3 giant DisCos, Ikeja, Eko & Abuja.

I made some analysis excluding them and the result is shocking.

THREAD!!! In the month of July 2024, the total losses made from all the DisCos is N96 billion, i.e. both technical, commercial and collection losses.

Averaging metering rate stands at 43% while customer counts is 13 million registered customers.

The dollar reserves with CBN;

Is not meant for spending (expense)
Is not FG money
Is not savings

Then what is it?

Let's discuss on a thread!!!

https://twitter.com/arojinle1/status/1828715066570440772

Our reserves is just money that is meant to settle international trade and payments.
Payment is not equal to expense.

Let me give an example for you to understand, it maybe narrow.

Here is how the flow works.

The Nigeria electricity trading is changing from a perceived single-buyer to a bilateral trading framework.

In simple english, NBET (read as govt) has initiate a gradual and quick plan to exit the market and allow independent players to operate.

THREAD!!! Based on the diagram you saw above, the industry is operated by various contract across all levels.

The contract in red are not fully effective because of one reason or the other.

It is good for us to know where we are now,

My people, let's discuss your estimated billing today.

Dem cheat you, dem no cheat you, I understand😅 it's crazy out there.

No light and the bill remain stagnant.

Some customers have power to NOT pay if there is no meter provided!

Thread!!! There are 3 Main classes of customers:

1. Non-MD Customer
2. MD1 Customer
3. MD2 Customer

MD means "Maximum Demand"

I thought I have written about this TCN - NISO unbundling but when I checked I did not.

Alright, for this one is pretty easy and straightforward.

TCN is transmission company that carry out the function of system operation and transmission tower services.

Thread!!!

https://twitter.com/Mucktey/status/1792604209721782646

As you can see on the sketch organogram above, market operations and system operations is under the same umbrella while transmission service provider are those in charge of the actual physical infrastructure (Towers).

Okay, Let's look at the evolution of Nigeria's Electricity Sector.

Trust me, it will be interesting😎😅

In 1896, the first electricity was generated in lagos by the british colonial government as a street lightning to avoid burglary and other social vices.

THREAD!!!

https://twitter.com/MSIngawa/status/1791574627237388604

The light will be on up to 11pm before they turn it off.

The street lighting failed to achieve the purpose of putting an end to burglary activities in Lagos.

In 1929, The Nigeria Electricity Supply Company (NESCO) was established to properly

The implementation of a decentralised electricity system in Nigeria has officially begin.

This will be an interesting journey guys, I'm excited.

Enugu State are the pace-setter in this journey.

Follow me, let's simply explain what happen and what to expect.

Thread!!! The @NERCNG are the apex regulators in anything electricity in Nigeria.

The law has changed, given state power to also regulate and participate in the electricity activities.

Let's us discuss this inflation and exchange rate issue together.

Dollar rate is down, prices of goods are increasing.

Dollar rate is up, prices are also increasing, ahhh wahala oooo😅

We all should be worried. but why?

Thread!!! There are a lot of issues, uncertainties and problems leading to all this.

The first thing I will say is that most economic indices tend to lag especially if it's good for the economy at a point in time.

The positive effect of low fx rate will NOT come immediately

Let us take a look at what causes national electricity grid collapse and how it occurs.

What will happen before a grid collapses.

I will try to explain in a layman way.

Thread!!! There are 26-grid connected power plants currently.

These power plants generate the power that the entire country uses, and it's synchronised and distributed across the country by the TCN.

TCN are the ones that handle the distribution of power by sending it to Discos.

CBN clears backlog. What does that mean for the fx market?

I think we should understand that fx backlog is just a liability against CBN by various companies.

Does it impact our foreign reserves? Yes, of course.

Thread!!! The reason why the backlog has piled up is because we keep doing international transactions without settling the parties involved, and the liabilities keep growing.

The reserve we ought to use to settle the parties, we have been using it to defend the naira at

Most arguments we had here are because either people do not understand how the system works or some people love to push an agenda because it benefits them.

What happens if you use a Naira debit card in Biannce?

It's simple, let's look at it.

https://twitter.com/HabuSadeik/status/1763258751639748680

For those of us who traded in Binance prior to the CBN ban, you can recall how you used to deposit funds in the app.

Let me walk you through the process illustratively

If you use your ATM card in Binance, the money will not go to Binance directly.

Okay, CBN increases MPR rate and guys are asking question to what does that mean.

No be say I no wan explain am, I go finish writing my english someone will say na just theory😂😂

No wahala, for the sake of learning purposes, let's look at what the numbers below are

Thread!!! In simple terms, MPR rate is the rate that banks and Other financial Institutions (OFI) used to set their own interest rate.

Before, the MPR rate is 18.75%, the MPC just increased it 22.75%.

Is it possible for the government to return fuel subsidy? N400/litre?

Is it possible to reverse the fx subsidy by pegging to N600/$

This is a question that a lot of non-economics people are asking.

Well, follow me lets take it step-by-step and see if its possible

Thread!!! The beauty about economics is that every decision has a pros and cons.

if you look at the decision and you did not find both the pros and cons, then either you're being bias or you did not understand the situation.

Fuel subsidy to N400/litre?

let's do the economics

So I was partially right.

The problem of epileptic power supply is not a gas constraint issue, but the Gas companies refusing to supply GenCos until they are paid.

We are in deep trouble.

Let me try to explain why

https://twitter.com/HabuSadeik/status/1757396150376669657

If care is not taken, steady electricity like before might be difficult to even get.

Someone of you will even say where is the steady electricity 😂😂 okay naa, if it gets worse, then you will appreciate the previous situation just like how some are appreciating Buh....😉

Okay, on the CBN angle, I think they are getting things right.

Let's look at it...

CBN has actually liberalise the Naira and devalue it further to encourage market participation.

If people in diaspora sent you money, Banks/IMTOs will convert and sent Naira to you in the prevailing market rate, remember there is nothing like official rate again because CBN has allow the dealers to transact without limitation to either

1. Spread (profit) or
2. FIxing official rate

This means if the black market is trading naira at

The Secret behind your electricity bill

Let's try to understand and learn how we consume electricity or how our prepaid meters are consuming 200, 300 units in a month without explanation😂

Okay, I promise there will be no technical jargons

Thread!!! Rt For every Item of appliances that you own, be it TV, Laptop, iron etc it usually comes with its power measurement known as "Watt"

They used Watt to measure the capacity of how an appliance can consume energy.

NNPC Accounts for 2022.

NNPC acquired 20% ownership of Dangoter refinery. The 20% ownership cost $2.76 billion.

NNPC don't have money to pay for the $2.76b, so they went to Lekki refinery funding Ltd to borrow $1 billion.

Lekki refinery gave them a $1b loan, the transaction Cost for the loan is $36 million.

The total loan value is $1.036 billion.

NNPC will repay the loan by supplying Lekki refinery 35,000 barrels of crude oil per day starting August 2023.

NNPC will repay the principal and interest of 3-months libor plus 6.125%