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Habu Sadeik Profile picture
Habu Sadeik
@HabuSadeik
Associate Chartered Accountant (ACA) || Financial Analyst || Power Sector Analyst || Political_Finance || Energy Finance || Opinions are solely mine
6 subscribers
Nov 30 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Let us look at some relevant data regarding this Tax reforms Bills.

I attached my excel template below, you can use it to put any assumptive data you may have.

I used GDP data as a proxy for derivation/consumption model. Image Because it is technically impossible to get derivation/taxable supply data based on locational consumption, I decide to used GDP which may also not be accurate with real figures.
Oct 31 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Let me put figure to this VAT proposed formular and see how it is.

Take, for example, the following states
generates the below as VAT for a particular month.

Kano = N30b
Lagos = N100b
Rivers = N80b

Total = N210b

(You can skip to the last thread for a summary)

Thread!!! Based on the proposed law:

FG will take 10% = N21b
What remains is N189b shareable to state & LG (90%)

60% of the N189b to be shared based on derivation.

Based on the above, the derivation % is
(VAT generated by states/total VAT)
Oct 4 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Let's look at some interesting data regarding the electricity sector.

The performance data for electricity in the country is very unfavourable when you remove the 3 giant DisCos, Ikeja, Eko & Abuja.

I made some analysis excluding them and the result is shocking.

THREAD!!! Image In the month of July 2024, the total losses made from all the DisCos is N96 billion, i.e. both technical, commercial and collection losses.

Averaging metering rate stands at 43% while customer counts is 13 million registered customers.
Aug 29 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
The dollar reserves with CBN;

Is not meant for spending (expense)
Is not FG money
Is not savings

Then what is it?

Let's discuss on a thread!!! Our reserves is just money that is meant to settle international trade and payments.
Payment is not equal to expense.

Let me give an example for you to understand, it maybe narrow.

Here is how the flow works.
Aug 13 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
The Nigeria electricity trading is changing from a perceived single-buyer to a bilateral trading framework.

In simple english, NBET (read as govt) has initiate a gradual and quick plan to exit the market and allow independent players to operate.

THREAD!!! Image Based on the diagram you saw above, the industry is operated by various contract across all levels.

The contract in red are not fully effective because of one reason or the other.

It is good for us to know where we are now,
Jul 1 • 23 tweets • 6 min read
My people, let's discuss your estimated billing today.

Dem cheat you, dem no cheat you, I understand😅 it's crazy out there.

No light and the bill remain stagnant.

Some customers have power to NOT pay if there is no meter provided!

Thread!!! There are 3 Main classes of customers:

1. Non-MD Customer
2. MD1 Customer
3. MD2 Customer

MD means "Maximum Demand"
May 21 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
I thought I have written about this TCN - NISO unbundling but when I checked I did not.

Alright, for this one is pretty easy and straightforward.

TCN is transmission company that carry out the function of system operation and transmission tower services.

Thread!!!
Image As you can see on the sketch organogram above, market operations and system operations is under the same umbrella while transmission service provider are those in charge of the actual physical infrastructure (Towers). Image
May 17 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Okay, Let's look at the evolution of Nigeria's Electricity Sector.

Trust me, it will be interesting😎😅

In 1896, the first electricity was generated in lagos by the british colonial government as a street lightning to avoid burglary and other social vices.

THREAD!!! The light will be on up to 11pm before they turn it off.

The street lighting failed to achieve the purpose of putting an end to burglary activities in Lagos.

In 1929, The Nigeria Electricity Supply Company (NESCO) was established to properly
Apr 22 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
The implementation of a decentralised electricity system in Nigeria has officially begin.

This will be an interesting journey guys, I'm excited.

Enugu State are the pace-setter in this journey.

Follow me, let's simply explain what happen and what to expect.

Thread!!! Image The @NERCNG are the apex regulators in anything electricity in Nigeria.

The law has changed, given state power to also regulate and participate in the electricity activities.
Apr 17 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
Let's us discuss this inflation and exchange rate issue together.

Dollar rate is down, prices of goods are increasing.

Dollar rate is up, prices are also increasing, ahhh wahala oooo😅

We all should be worried. but why?

Thread!!! Image There are a lot of issues, uncertainties and problems leading to all this.

The first thing I will say is that most economic indices tend to lag especially if it's good for the economy at a point in time.

The positive effect of low fx rate will NOT come immediately
Mar 29 • 31 tweets • 7 min read
Let us take a look at what causes national electricity grid collapse and how it occurs.

What will happen before a grid collapses.

I will try to explain in a layman way.

Thread!!! There are 26-grid connected power plants currently.

These power plants generate the power that the entire country uses, and it's synchronised and distributed across the country by the TCN.

TCN are the ones that handle the distribution of power by sending it to Discos. Image
Mar 22 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
CBN clears backlog. What does that mean for the fx market?

I think we should understand that fx backlog is just a liability against CBN by various companies.

Does it impact our foreign reserves? Yes, of course.

Thread!!! The reason why the backlog has piled up is because we keep doing international transactions without settling the parties involved, and the liabilities keep growing.

The reserve we ought to use to settle the parties, we have been using it to defend the naira at
Mar 2 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Most arguments we had here are because either people do not understand how the system works or some people love to push an agenda because it benefits them.

What happens if you use a Naira debit card in Biannce?

It's simple, let's look at it. For those of us who traded in Binance prior to the CBN ban, you can recall how you used to deposit funds in the app.

Let me walk you through the process illustratively

If you use your ATM card in Binance, the money will not go to Binance directly.
Feb 27 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
Okay, CBN increases MPR rate and guys are asking question to what does that mean.

No be say I no wan explain am, I go finish writing my english someone will say na just theory😂😂

No wahala, for the sake of learning purposes, let's look at what the numbers below are

Thread!!! Image In simple terms, MPR rate is the rate that banks and Other financial Institutions (OFI) used to set their own interest rate.

Before, the MPR rate is 18.75%, the MPC just increased it 22.75%.
Feb 21 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
Is it possible for the government to return fuel subsidy? N400/litre?

Is it possible to reverse the fx subsidy by pegging to N600/$

This is a question that a lot of non-economics people are asking.

Well, follow me lets take it step-by-step and see if its possible

Thread!!! The beauty about economics is that every decision has a pros and cons.

if you look at the decision and you did not find both the pros and cons, then either you're being bias or you did not understand the situation.

Fuel subsidy to N400/litre?

let's do the economics
Feb 15 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
So I was partially right.

The problem of epileptic power supply is not a gas constraint issue, but the Gas companies refusing to supply GenCos until they are paid.

We are in deep trouble.

Let me try to explain why
Image If care is not taken, steady electricity like before might be difficult to even get.

Someone of you will even say where is the steady electricity 😂😂 okay naa, if it gets worse, then you will appreciate the previous situation just like how some are appreciating Buh....😉
Feb 9 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Okay, on the CBN angle, I think they are getting things right.

Let's look at it...

CBN has actually liberalise the Naira and devalue it further to encourage market participation.

If people in diaspora sent you money, Banks/IMTOs will convert and sent Naira to you in the prevailing market rate, remember there is nothing like official rate again because CBN has allow the dealers to transact without limitation to either

1. Spread (profit) or
2. FIxing official rate

This means if the black market is trading naira at Image
Feb 7 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
The Secret behind your electricity bill

Let's try to understand and learn how we consume electricity or how our prepaid meters are consuming 200, 300 units in a month without explanation😂

Okay, I promise there will be no technical jargons

Thread!!! Rt For every Item of appliances that you own, be it TV, Laptop, iron etc it usually comes with its power measurement known as "Watt"

They used Watt to measure the capacity of how an appliance can consume energy.
Jan 25 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
NNPC Accounts for 2022.

NNPC acquired 20% ownership of Dangoter refinery. The 20% ownership cost $2.76 billion.

NNPC don't have money to pay for the $2.76b, so they went to Lekki refinery funding Ltd to borrow $1 billion.

Lekki refinery gave them a $1b loan, the transaction Cost for the loan is $36 million.

The total loan value is $1.036 billion.

NNPC will repay the loan by supplying Lekki refinery 35,000 barrels of crude oil per day starting August 2023.

NNPC will repay the principal and interest of 3-months libor plus 6.125%
Nov 24, 2023 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
Electricity Billing

How does the Discos billed you as a postpaid customer without meter?

On electricity billing methodology, let's see who cheats who, according to the market processes.

THREAD! Let's assume the average cost of power is N50/Kwh and

The selling price of power is N70/Kwh

Let us use Gombe town as a case example to illustrate how it is done.

Assuming in October, Gombe has received a total of 2,000,000 Kwh units of power from the national grid.
Oct 12, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
CBN circular means rice, and 42 other items will be imported by sourcing funds through the fx rate.

What does that mean for:

1. Exchange rate
2. Price of rice et al
3. Inflation

Mallam Audu will go to the I&E window to source for Fx and import foreign rice to resell in 🇳🇬 Yes, him going to the I&E windows will put pressure on the fx.

The good side is that he will no longer visit the black market to look for dollars, and this will remove pressure on the black market.

The pressure will shift from black market to official window