Big political storm is brewing in Mogadishu:
- Election committee supported by @MohamedHRoble started certifying the election, to be followed by swearing in of MPs from April 14.
- The fate of 16 seats from the President’s constituency and 4 suspended seats is up in the air. - The PM fires two members of the election committee accused of disrupting the process.
- The PM spoke about existence actors plotting political and security instability. He didn’t identify the actors. He warned the army, and other branches against intimidating the Committee.

Somali PM @MohamedHRoble fires 2 federal election committee members accusing them of involvement in attempts to “disrupt” process to swearing in elected lawmakers. The 2 includes former election chief Mohamed Hassan Irro. 5 other members of the FEIT committee were given warnings. PM Roble reported “existence” of groups in & outside the country who are plotting to obstruct completing election process & to create security and political instability. He warns the army, civil servants, govt members against intimidation and corruption within election committee.

The Somali Govt and African Union reportedly agreed framework for the AU mission in Somalia in the next 33 months after a meeting in Addis Ababa. According to documents being circulated, the new AU mission will transition from AMISOM to ATMIS (AU Transitional Mission to Somalia).

https://twitter.com/harunmaruf/status/1484763013106311172

ATMIS to retain gains made since 2007 but will support objectives and priorities of Somali Transition Plan. ATMIS will conduct with SNA joint, targeted operations to degrade and “other armed opposition groups.”
ATMIS will consist of military, police and civilian components.

BREAKING: Twist in Somalia election process as President @M_Farmaajo accuses PM @MohamedHRoble of “failing” to lead elections; calls for a consultative meeting to “course-correct” the election and to “agree on a leadership capable of implementing inclusive, transparent election” In a late night statement, @M_Farmaajo accuses @MohamedHRoble of “deviating” from leading & implementing the election, and undermining committee tasked to manage the election. He also accused the PM of issuing unilateral decisions that could create obstacles to election process.

BREAKING: key points from @mafgoi’s report: 25 entities and 3 embassies have been audited. Unsupported expenditure amounts to $9M; contracts worth $31M not registered with auditor general’s office, existence of un-authorized bank accounts outside the Treasury Single Account. The Somali auditor general says $17 million external support has not been channeled through the country’s single treasury account. @mafgoi said federal member states and Banadir did not account for funds amounting $78M received from the Federal govt.

Here is a thread summarizing where things stand with regard to the investigation of missing intelligence officer, Ikran Tahlil, based on my latest @i_dossier report. Ikran left her residence just after 8pm local time on June 26. She was never seen in public since. Investigation into Ikran’s disappearance has stalled after the national intelligence agency blocked investigations into the case by the military courts, two officials and a lawmaker said. The intel agency said it has its own office section which conducts investigations.

The new report by the UN Panel of Experts (PoE) is being circulated. The report covers the period between December 2020 and September 2021. I’m sharing some highlights: PoE to investigate ramifications on peace and security in Somalia, specifically the role of Eritrea-trained Somali recruits, the majority of whom remain in Eritrea, but some of whom have returned to Somalia [news to me that some returned] to provide unspecified security functions

After 20 years of “tiresome” Afghan war, the US is set to end its mission in a matter of days. But despite the reported 300,000 Afghan army and police trained by the Int’l Community, the Taliban are on the verge of taking over most of the country. What is the lesson for Somalia? The Africa Union Mission has been in Somalia since March 2007. AMISOM numbers just under 20,000, and is now looking for a way out. AU experts recently proposed a hybrid mission of the AU & UN after 2021, with a mix of police (50%), military personnel (35%) and civilians (15%).

Somali Govt leaders have decided to bring Somali soldiers trained in Eritrea home within weeks. A team from Eritrea are currently in Somalia to assess area of deployment along with Somali security experts, according to two govt sources. @i_dossier reports voasomali.com/a/5989032.html The govt has a tentative plant to have the soldiers operate in Southwest and Jubaland states. Eritrea is equipping them, per sources. Two govt officials said the soldiers who were mainly trained as mobile forces, have received the toughest training of all the Somali soldiers

This week the Somali Govt announced conclusion of the latest military operations against Al-Shabaab in Middle Shabelle. But was the operation planned properly? What was the strategy? Why did it end? @i_dossier talks to the commanders and critics.
voasomali.com/a/5955031.html The Somali Govt recently concluded a military operation in Middle Shabelle, claimed inflicting heavy loses on Al-Shabaab. The operation claimed the lives of soldiers including rising commander Mohamed Abdiwahab. But the operation ended, troops who were deployed pulled back.

Strange but significant news from Mogadishu as @amisomsomalia is forced to give regional & opposition leaders assurance of security protection ahead of election meeting b/w the leaders on Monday. “AMISOM will guarantee security before, during and after the meeting,” says AU chief Why is this an issue?
Following the Feb 19 incident when govt forces clashed w the bodyguards of opposition leaders & the subsequent firing on protesters, trust b/w federal & opposition leaders weakened. The govt expressed regret at the incident but it did little to restore trust

On 17 Feb 2021 I tweeted about the emergence of self-organised, anti-Al-Shabaab militias known as Ma’awisley who have been sighted in parts of Lower Shabelle region - in the vicinity of Leego, Yaaq Bariweyne, Beled Amiin & in areas around Ballidogle airport. I’ve update on this: Al-Shabaab has now launched counter-offensive against Ma’awisley and have targeted communities they suspect are supporting them, burning homes and destroying charcoal trucks. Significant number of civilians have fled to Wanlaweyn town from Yaq Bariweyne and surrounding areas.

Brief details of my investigation into the troops Eritrea is training for Somalia: The idea that Eritrea trains Somali soldiers was first raised by @M_Farmaajo in his 2nd visit to Asmara, but was discussed in detail during President Isaias Afwerki’s visit to Mogadishu in Dec 2018 Initial plan was to train the soldiers at home; Eritrea sent military experts to assess the situation; they visited Degaanley, Isaley, Jazeera, MoD, they met different officials; eventually they decided training in Somalia could compromise safety of trainers and cadets themselves

BREAKING: About 55% of Somali govt ministries, departments, and agencies failed to submit annual financial statements in the financial year 2019, office of the Auditor General said in his annual report
oag.gov.so/wp-content/upl… Cash receipts collected and used at source without submitting for accountability was more than $1.8 million in 2019. Compare this to the 2018 revenue collected and used by the same ministeries/agencies that collected without submitting to revenue service was $1.3 million!!!

NISA:
There were some payments that were made during the year [2018] that were not fully supported amounting to US $3,473,247.00. Report cites inadequate supporting docs for the payments. OPM:
The Office of the Prime Minister has not submitted accounts for FY 2018 to the Auditor’s General’s office; there is also no internal audit unit and no internal audit function in place.

BREAKING: Somalia auditor general publishes financial audit report for 2018, and compliance audit report for security and non-security sectors.
Key findings: Outdated laws across institutions; non compliance of procurement & PFM laws; lack of asset mngmnt, internal audit (Read!)

https://twitter.com/oagsomalia/status/1181652420511895552

BREAKING: The 2018 financial audit report finds that over $1.3m of revenue collected was not submitted for accountability and was “used at source”. The report names the Police Force, Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation, and the Somali National University as the culprits.

BREAKING: Explosion reported at Mogadishu Mayor’s office, casualties reported. More to follow. BREAKING: Mayor of Mogadishu Abdirahman Omar Osman injured in explosion in his office, he is being evacuated to a hospital, officials. Early reports indicate an explosion occurred inside the HQs of Mogadishu.

Deputy Minister of Energy and two lawmakers are tonight being held at JKIA after Kenya denied them entry because they’ve Somali passports, per source. According to sources, other ministers, officials were allowed to enter only after producing their western passports.

https://twitter.com/dalsanfm/status/1130562806615556097

BREAKING: Deputy energy minister Osman Liban travelled to Kenya to attend the launch of the EU Trust Fund for Africa programme “Collaboration in Cross Border Areas of the Horn of Africa” due to open May 21. Somali ministers, officials vowed not to attend w/o the deputy minister

The relations between Somalia and Kenya has been frosty recently. It could develop into serious stage beyond the control if things continue along this trajectory. The dispute eminates from dispute over maritime as well as land boundary. Here is why:- First, Kenya has just imposed flights from Mogadishu to stopover Wajir for “security reasons”. But Somalia sees this a political move aimed at pressuring and embarrassing Somali travellers including national leaders. Mogadishu could retaliate and the response could be serious.

Ahmed Abdul Aziz Kattan, Saudi minister of state for African affairs has been visiting Mogadishu where he met with @M_Farmaajo. @TheVillaSomalia says he delivered a message from @KingSalman, the content of which was not disclosed. Saudi Arabia has in the past “offered” to ease tensions between Somalia and UAE over fall out from Somalia’s refusal to cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. Egypt was mentioned as possible mediator too but so far there have been no reports of tangible progress.

Weeklong bombings in Mogadishu claimed the lives of 36 people. The Al-Shabab militant group claimed responsibility for all the attacks.
But experts and officials agree that if the Somali government wants to defeat Al-Shabab it will need a cohesive, strong and well equipped army. On paper, Somalia has at least 30,000 forces enough to fight against Al-Shabab and takeover responsibilities from the African Union forces. But these forces still lack the resources and capacity to fight off the militant group according to a new study obtained by @i_dossier.