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The Long View Profile picture
The Long View
@HayekAndKeynes
Institutional Investor. Named a top finance account by Business Insider. See highlights tab for longer term macro views.
Aug 5 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Equities have sold off but this is not even close to being a cheap market ….🧵

Forward PE’s are still close to 22 and were near the highs of 2021 Image The entire move since Q4 of last year was predicated on Fed cuts that never came alongside AI hype.

But trailing earnings haven’t budged during the rally Image
Feb 2 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Powell already pivoted but they put it in writing yesterday…

They nixed the prospect of hikes and noted they would consider cuts next (though still marginally hawkish as they noted they will not move until they see a path to 2% - makes sense given they also upgraded their view on growth and nixed worries over banking)Image He is no longer afraid of growth… Image
Jan 27 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
The stimmy keeps on coming 🍾

Inflation adjustments to social security and increases in retiree healthcare (+150bn) completely offset expiring income tax credits (-$150bn)…

Next year those two categories will rise by another $200bn yet again (~1% of GDP) with no real offset.

This is all due to a massive wave of retirees now eligible to receive government benefits… 💴 💴 💴Image This is on top of all the blue wave spending proposals which added another $200bn in spending (~1% of GDP). The spending however isn’t the total as it supurred a ton of related investments. Image