First: the most likely explanation for the geographic pattern described is that the data is fake, and randomly generated. If you want to, its now not particularly difficult to mass generate realistic photos with whatever metadata you want
Mar 16 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
You don't really want a Manufacturing Economy. You want a political economy where industries have the economies of scale and lack of international competion to support generous compensation for twice the employees that they really need and a political system that forces them to
(Manufacturing is way, way too competitive and low margin to support that arrangement now)
Dec 19, 2024 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
Ok, real talk:
I've known people who have run for congress and lost (which is always the modal outcome for a non-incumbent), and watched the process closely because once upon I time I thought I might want to do it myself. Here's how it really works:
(1/n)
I'll make this party agnostic, becauseehile the parties are definitely not mirror images of each other it's not *that* different, procedurally
Oct 25, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Lobbying is probably the topic on which my political views have been most changed by age and experience
1. Corporatist lobbying, for all its very real and very gross sliminess, is the most moderate and moderating force in American politics, at all levels of government
2. The power of lobbying derives *NOT* from money but from information. Congressmen-- and more importantly, congressional staffs-- are overwhelmingly ignorant of the basic structures and practical realities of industries, but usually earnest in their desire to learn
Jul 9, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Random bit of career advice: one of the things you need to know--really know-- about yourself is how much you expect/want to be rewarded for effort and how much for results
Every job will have its own mix of both, but it will never be structurally changed to align to your preferences
It's on you to pick a path that aligns to your own wants/needs
Apr 12, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Any Millennial who looked at their peers with open, cold eyes saw this coming 15 years ago
Focusing on housing wealth is not the right way to express the real nature of the inequality though ...
Dec 22, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I'm never genuinely bearish the s&p bc I'm a born-and-bred rational expectations guy who knows it's always priced so as to produce a positive return in the future
*but*
2 things give me pause:
1. Earnings & FCF multiples are back at ZIRP levels, except we are no longer in a ZIRP world, which is to say that the Equity Risk Premium is just about the lowest it's ever been
Jun 2, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
An advice-for-youngins-starting-out thread, which I'll add to sporadically
1. Most industries are cyclical, and because booming industries hire the most aggressively and indiscriminately it is likely you are fated to get your start in an industry at a cyclical peak
2. You are nowhere close to pulling your weight and earning your salary on day 1. Companies set entry level pay for where in the talent distribution they need to hire, not for any connection to initial productivity
Oct 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
@EpsilonTheory@FT In the US, the single biggest abuser of ZIRP capital in the 2010s was oil & gas, and in that business labor productivity grew tremendously. At least 5% cagr for the period
@EpsilonTheory@FT The second biggest abuser of ZIRP capital was software, where again labor productivity grew tremendously
Mar 8, 2022 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Since we're all geopolitical strategists now, a stray thought- there will be *tons* of analysis of the events leading up to Russia's invasion, to answer two questions 1) how could we have had more (and earlier) confidence in Russia's intent and 2) what could we have done about it
Question 1) is absolutely something where energy people have some contribution to make
Jan 26, 2022 • 12 tweets • 9 min read
@QuickDCapital@Keubiko@hkuppy Among the larger behavioral changes in central banking is how they view comms. Basically, they do not want any rate announcement to be a surprise when it happens. If they want to move more aggressively on rates, they will signal a faster pace rest of the year
@QuickDCapital@Keubiko@hkuppy (changes vs Volker's, and Greenspan's, day)
Jan 7, 2022 • 38 tweets • 16 min read
So I’m a little reluctant to do this bc I have generally avoided calling out specific names, but I talk enough big game that it’s only fair I slap my dick on the table and make my calls for 2022. What follows is the official 2022 DTH YOLO portfolio
The basic theme: Be long physical stuff, especially physical stuff whose production capacity was damaged by the pandemic. The theme has categories coal, metals, oil, and international natgas
Jun 25, 2021 • 41 tweets • 11 min read
This article by @liamdenning is egregiously, offensively terrible analysis 🧵
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Normally I would not dunk on someone by name over an article because normally they are just ignorant but trying their best. What makes this special is that it contains enough correct, detailed fact to nuke ignorance as an excuse
Jun 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
When I get the PE backing my E&P will be named Dead Dinosaur Energy.
Logo will be a jolly roger with a T-Rex skull. MS Paint all the way. On the website it will spin like it's 1994
Ain't no marketing consultant getting a piece of that.
Will also have deliberately hideous 90s vintage PPT color schemes solely to make the bankers suffer
Jun 22, 2021 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
So, since it's a drink-on-a-monday kinda week, I'm going to really throw a rock a the beehive with a rambling explanation of why the Fed's claim of "transitory inflation" is actually not that crazy:
First: the best way to understand the combined fiscal and monetary policy of the pandemic is that of a currency devaluation
Jun 17, 2021 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
The Gamestop reprise of this company 3 years from now will be the most amazingly entertaining shitshow imaginable. Seriously, this could be the chance to watch a Tom Wolfe novel come to life
I got some pushback regarding leveraged ETFs, in particular the performance of equity index ETFs and whether or not the leverage is “cheap” or “expensive”. It’s worth clarifying with a bit more rigor than the first go round why this leverage is expensive
May 4, 2020 • 36 tweets • 6 min read
WHY YOU SHOULD NEVER HOLD LEVERED ETFS
This one is actually pretty simple and can be reduced to a straightforward math statement:
1.03 * 0.97 < 1.02 * 0.98 < 1.01 * 0.99 < 1
The continued existence of triple-levered and inverse-triple-levered ETFs is the single strongest argument against the efficient market hypothesis. They are the slot machines of the Robinhood casino. That statement is unfair to slot machines, which actually give you better odds
Apr 27, 2020 • 54 tweets • 9 min read
A GENTLEMAN’S PRIMER ON SHORTING INSOLVENT SHITCOS
So you’ve found a ShitCo. It’s such an ugly zombie it couldn’t be an extra in season 19 of The Walking Dead
But it’s still got a $185m cap
And you want to be the one to mung the last rancid, putrefying drops out of that corpse
SADDLE UP, COWBOY
You may be short
