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Matthew Gross Profile picture
Matthew Gross
@HurricaneAddict
Fascinated by extreme weather! (I post fantasy hour model runs for entertainment, not to forecast. If it's beyond Day 7, it's probably not a legitimate threat.)
Sep 19 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Oh boy, this ought to be good! Image Outflow channels would be extremely favorable for rapid development if you got a CAT 1 in this spot. Image
Jun 5 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
We had a highly interesting seasonal forecast monthly update drop from the Euro this morning!

In the tropical Atlantic, the June outlook is now calling for 2.0 times the average ACE using 1993 to 2023 as the baseline. (1/x)


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Image The average ACE over that period is 127, so 2.0 means the Euro is going with 254 total ACE in the basin, which would surpass even 2005's historic 245 number. With 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes also forecasted, it clearly favors a long track MDR outlook (2/x)
Sep 22, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The severity of what’s about to occur in Nova Scotia on Friday night cannot be overstated! A hybrid hurricane will result from the violent phasing of a sharp cutoff trough and major hurricane Fiona moving into the same waters well east of New England.

(Here comes a thread) When this occurs, Fiona will receive a tremendous injection of 500 mb energy, causing her pressure to drop and her wind field to expand. The result will be a storm unlike Nova Scotia, or all of Canada for that matter, has ever seen.