Hint: if you see mkt trade up Sun-Tue before a major event, the mkt is underhedged and the outcome could be ugly. You saw this in May-June, learn to recognize patterns at least if you don’t wanna get too fancy with positioning/orderflow data The opposite is true. If you see mkt trade down before a major event, downside is hedged/priced in mostly, and the higher EV trade for pre-event degens is to long (this is what happens I’d say 80% of the time, but sometimes the market is irrational like this week)

1/6 I’ll give u guys a little insight into why I shorted BTC/ETH post-CPI rally. First thing is it’s important to understand the structural flows in trads (see thread below). The key point is that crypto’s correlation makes it so that ppl LONG crypto during SPX’s structural rally

https://twitter.com/Husslin_/status/1546884584285130753

2/6 This means you have an abundance of OI now, in a move that’s very likely to reverse in trads given its structural nature (driven by shorts/puts covering). The result -> more volatile move down in crypto compared to trads

A thread on the "impending doom in markets"

We’re beginning to see concerning signs lately in the volatility space during this rally. It’s important to note that hedges against index volatility have been one of the most supportive factors during this general downtrend. (1/13) Most of the world was well-hedged on an institutional level, and the vol market was oversupplied. Summer was an interesting period: low liquidity + well-supplied vol = mean reversion and vol compression on the index level, which is coming to an end now. (2/13)

cheat sheet for u options nerds The vanna/charm hedging happens into market close and during NY morning session. These are front run overnight. If volatility down often -> underlying index is bought overnight (ES e.g., starting ~2am ET). If vol up -> sold overnight.

Liquidity harvesting during weekends/holidays/periods where OB is thin:

https://twitter.com/Husslin_/status/1538369119514394625

How to quickly scalp liqs (can use kingfisher or hyblock maps to verify):

https://twitter.com/Husslin_/status/1541804477828710406

I’m bidding 24-26. I still think we’re in a range here (25-32). If I get fucked, so be it. Always get sketched out when futures open like this. Ppl are overhedging in case Fed changes hike rate due to CPI data. If they don’t change stance, these shorts will likely cover To be clear I’m a scalper. These aren’t spot bids (those won’t be till like <15k at least)

Green weekly candle narrative, I’m sure it will end well I am begging u to fade the scam pump

This has become a weekly occurrence every Saturday 10-10:30am ET fyi. Always a free ~2% squeeze to trade Pump with perps/spot into thin OB, empty spot inventory

Gm. This Bart is ready to die. NY open to 31.7-31.9, but with some hard effort could even go to 32.1 (kinda doubt it but we’ll see), then straight down to 30.3-30.5 imo. Let’s see if that level holds, could take us to mid 33. Otherwise, keep going down till 27k Have been seeing 35k+ thrown around, I simply don't see it lol.

1/4 Most of these indicators you guys use (EMA/RSI, whatever) work because some other people also look at them. The one thing that every single person looks at is price, though. It’s king. Keep it simple

https://twitter.com/fewseethis/status/1506660610922143746

2/4 Contrary to standard economic theory where we are taught that equilibrium prices are implied by the real economic fundamentals that determine supply and demand

1/4 Keep it simple guys. The market is only complicated if you make it be, or if you’re impatient. First of all adapt to this environment. Realize that since November, we’ve entered a different regime of selling rips, not buying dips. Let’s dive into this on a more micro level 2/4 Intraday tf: look at range. Determine it from the last trending move. It has left trapped traders. Right now it’s 28-31. Be patient and just short 31, long 28. If it breaks the range, take the loss and stop holding. You hopefully will have made enough from this range anyway.

1/4 FOMC, elections, etc how do you trade events like this? The first thing you have to understand is that the market always loves to buy insurance (perhaps too much). Why? Because funds hold positions (bonds, equities, etc.). These guys don’t day trade, they hedge 2/4 Okay great, but what does that mean? It means you’ll typically see a “sell the rumor, buy the news” in almost every anticipated event. Let’s take for example the FOMC from today. The market sold off on Mon-Tue (they hedged with shorts or whatever), then rallied on Wednesday

1/ Learn to understand the narrative the market is painting for you, especially when ranging. No fancy charts/lines needed, just understanding psychology. Do you see how each high is lower/weaker than the other, while the lows are essentially fixed at 38.1? 2/ what does this tell you? Well, the market pretty much keeps shorting the same point (around 38.1), but longing all the way up. What follows is value compression. The highs get lower, the low usually stays fixed. In total there’s probably more market longs here

After a volatile Thurs-Fri, if you want to see the next range to trade (weekend e.g.), you can use OI to determine supports/resistances by figuring out where the majority of trades are positioned. It'll just ping pong till a resolution. 1st OI chart is aggregate, 2nd is Binance How does it resolve? Well, typically you have to wipe the OI in one side. This is why it’s so common to see a large “stop hunt” or “fake out” towards the other side before the real break outside the range

@mattomattik Hopefully now y’all understand why they do shit like the scam candle yesterday. When you have an illiquid market and a major event like the FOMC and you want to unload spot at favorable prices without slippage, you can “fake” trading activity with size perps. @mattomattik You wait till the most illiquid time of day then take price up and set a range high/low which algos and NY traders will see, giving you the opportunity to unload spot as they trade it later