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In-depth analysis and insights on gold, silver, commodities, inflation, macro economics, Austrian Economics, Bitcoin and mining. Charts and long-form threads.
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Jun 1, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
We feature quite a few charts, but our favourite remains the gold/Okteberfest beer ratio.

Gold has not only maintained its beer purchasing power over the last 12 months, the ratio even increased from 121 to 123 Maß Oktoberfestbier, despite the price increases in euros.
1/ Image We also feature the iPhone/gold ratio. Every year, the latest Iphone is more expensive than the previous year.

But not if you hold gold. The first iPhone sold for 0.92 ounces of gold in 2007. Fifteen years later, only 0.75 ounces of gold are due for the iPhone 14 Pro.
2/ Image
Jun 1, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Introducing The Incrementum Recession Phase Model.

What assets perform well during a recession?

We look at 5 different phases of a recession and the performance of various assets during each phase.
1/ Image We analyzed eight recessions since 1970. Turns out that gold and mining stocks tend to perform quite well during a recession.
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May 24, 2023 11 tweets 5 min read
The top 10 facts in the 2023 #IGWT report.
A thread:

1. If the U.S debt ceiling is raised again, it will be the 79th increase since 1960, the 21st since 2000, and the 30th under a Democratic president. Republican Presidents have raised the debt ceiling 49 times.
1/ Image 2. Gold, you are the apple of my eye… in terms of purchasing power! In 2007, the first iPhone cost $599 or the equivalent of 0.92 ounces of gold. Fifteen years later, only 0.75 ounces of gold are due for the iPhone 14 Pro, which cost $1,499 at its launch in September 2022.
2/ Image
Jan 30, 2023 13 tweets 4 min read
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?

This is the title of a working paper released by the IMF on the 27th of Jan 2023.

We summarized their findings for you below:
1/ In the past, the IMF considered gold to be a "barbarous relic" and advocated for its replacement with a more modern and flexible reserve asset, such as its own Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). However, in recent years, the IMF has changed its stance on gold.
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Jan 23, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
The Terrible Top 5.

We list the top 5 worst cases of hyperinflation in history!

Let the countdown begin!👇
1/ #5 The Greek Hyperinflation of 1941-1944: Greece experienced a severe episode of hyperinflation during the German occupation in World War II. The inflation rate reached an estimated 50% per month, causing widespread poverty and social unrest.

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Jan 3, 2023 19 tweets 4 min read
The Grand Chessboard. A Mega Thread🧵.

#Zoltan Pozsar's latest piece is titled "War and Currency Statecraft". In it, he lays out his geopolitical views in greater detail.

Zoltan iterates the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar economic world.
1/
silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/0… If accepted, the new proposed BRICS members would create an entity with a GDP 30% larger than the United States, over 50% of the global population and in control of 60% of global gas reserves.
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Dec 30, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
We found this quote from Human Action.

Mises describes the world on a gold standard, enjoy:

"The gold standard was the world standard of the age of capitalism, increasing welfare, liberty, and democracy, both political and economic.
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In the eyes of the free traders its main eminence was precisely the fact that it was an international standard as required by international trade and the transactions of the international money and capital market.
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Dec 29, 2022 15 tweets 3 min read
The birth of the petroyuan.

A thread:

At #IGWT we have been writing about de-dollarization for a number of years. This topic is often misunderstood and is a theme playing out over decades, not years.
1/ We regard Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia for the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit a pivotal moment in this storyline.
What is the GCC, what are they planning and why is it important?
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Nov 29, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
Fractional Reserve Banking:

What is it? Why does it exist?

Thread time:
1/ In the late 1800s, most bank notes were redeemable for gold at par value. This means that you could take a bank note to the issuing bank and they would give you gold in return for the note. Responsible banks would take in gold and issue notes for the amount of gold deposited.
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Nov 14, 2022 12 tweets 3 min read
1 December 2022 will mark two years since we published our special report, "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". We likened the (then) current market situation to Æsop's fable and warned readers that current events signal inflation on the horizon.

A thread
1/ From the report: "Recent developments - politicians’ growing control over credit creation, average inflation targeting policy, and the historic expansion of the broad monetary aggregate – suggest the 2020s could become a stagflationary era."
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Oct 11, 2022 13 tweets 4 min read
We are undoubtedly in the midst of an economic crisis.

How did we get here and why did it happen? What should you do?

Let us look to the Austrian School for answers.

Thread:
1/ In his 1931 essay: The Causes of the Economic Crises: An Address, Ludwig von Mises succinctly explains what happens when credit expansion takes place:
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Oct 4, 2022 25 tweets 5 min read
What is the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle and why is it important today?

A Mega Thread:
1/ First introduced by Ludwig von Mises in his 'Theory of Money and Credit' (1912), ABCT has been expanded upon by Murray Rothbard, Friedrich Hayek and Roger Garrison. Here is a succinct explanation of the ABCT from Mises himself:
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Sep 29, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
Government Price Controls:

A Thread: 👇

We have seen a lot talk about price controls in the media lately, with articles in The Guardian, ABC News and The Financial Times calling for price controls to curb inflation. Will this work? Lets take a closer look:
1/ In their seminal book "40 Centuries of Wage and Price Controls", 1979, Schuettinger and Butler takes you on a historic tour of price and wage controls, from the ancient world, to Roman times, through medieval and early modern times and into the 20th century.
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Aug 25, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
Royalty and streaming companies: An under appreciated segment of the gold and metals investment landscape. Many market participants do not even know of their existance!

Allow us to break it down for you:
🧵time!
1/ Image Royalty & streaming companies (R&S) do not build mines, they do not produce gold, or silver, or anything else. They do not have to deal with cost overruns, growing labor costs, or endless permitting processes. They simply invest in royalties and streams.
2/
Sep 19, 2021 11 tweets 5 min read
The era of negative real interest rates is set to continue.

What will this mean for gold and gold mining stocks?

This thread outlines five reasons why real interest rates will remain low, and the implications for the gold sector. 1/ Firstly, Western economies saw an exorbitant spike in their broad money supplies during 2020.

Unlike the post-2008 years, not only is narrow money growing rapidly, but broad money is as well.

This will serve to keep inflation figures above target levels.
Sep 17, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read
The coming years could see a return to high inflation, financial repression, and negative real interest rates.

How could gold help investors protect themselves in this economic environment?

This thread outlines five roles for gold within a portfolio.👇 1/ Inflation Hedge

When monetary expansion leads to rising prices, gold's reliably high stock-to-flow ratio means that its supply cannot expand to meet new demand.

This results in higher gold prices.

The graph shows how gold & CPI have been correlated over the past 20 years. Image
Aug 5, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
The Covid-19 pandemic added USD 24trn to the global debt mountain last year.

The global debt to GDP ratio now exceeds 355%.

These debts will not be paid off in real terms.

Instead, we expect them to be inflated away through 1940s-style yield curve control.

More below👇 Some industrialized countries, notably the US, have already exceeded a government debt to GDP ratio of 130%, or are fast approaching it.

Greece, which had to make a debt cut in 2012, now has a public debt of over 200%; while Italy has public debt of 156%.
Jul 15, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
We are at the early stages of a multi-layered paradigm shift triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and the political reactions to it.

We call this shift "monetary climate change".

This thread lists five profound economic changes taking place right now that you need to know about. 1/ In the past year governments have embraced the role of big spenders.

Ultimate constraints, such as the US debt ceiling, the EU Maastricht criteria and other national debt brakes have been suspended, interpreted generously, or simply ignored.
Jun 29, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read
Interest rates represent the price paid for deferred consumption.

When they are reduced to zero, the effects on society are profound.

Drawing on the book The Zero Interest Trap this thread explores the social implications of a world with 0% interest rates.👇 1/ When interest rates are lowered by central banks, the reduced cost of borrowing does not reflect a real change in consumer preferences.

An effective “maximum price” is imposed on the return to saving, which incentivises consumption and causes the supply of capital to dry up. Image
Jun 28, 2021 16 tweets 8 min read
Interest rates provide one of our most important price signals, but they are no longer set by the market.

Based on insights from The Zero Interest Trap by @RonStoeferle, @scholarium_at and G. Hochreiter, this thread explores the strange phenomenon of 0% interest rates.👇🧵 1/ Following the 2008 financial crisis, monetary authorities around the globe cut interest rates to close to 0%.

Guided by Keynesian economic theory, this action aimed to stimulate growth and prevent deflation by making it cheaper to borrow.
Jun 22, 2021 8 tweets 5 min read
Looking to get up to speed on changes taking place in the global economy and the impact they will have on #gold?

Drawing on content from our #IGWT report–including contributions from @Breedlove22 and Russell Napier–the five threads below are a good place to start.👇🧵 1/ Our report tackles the economic status quo and explains why "monetary climate change" is on its way.

This thread outlines gold’s performance over the past year, explains how this relates to macroeconomic trends, and gives our forecasts for the future.