Brexit looks increasingly like a dragging anchor on the economy. Jeremy Hunt was a Remainer. Before the referendum, he warned leaving the EU would be a “shock to the economy that would truly undermine the public finances.” Earlier, I put it to him that he has been proved right… …the @OBR_UK’s analysis suggests Brexit has cost @hmtreasury c£13 billion in lost tax revenue this year. This is money the government could do with but the chancellor ruled out pursuing a closer trading relationship with the EU. “We have a very good agreement with the EU…”

Many people who voted to leave the EU did so because they wanted lower immigration, they are slowly realising that they haven’t got it.

As government’s forecaster notes: “there is evidence of sustained strength in inward migration since the the post-Brexit migration regime… …was introduced”.

To be clear, these are people coming to the UK legally and, in many cases, to work.

One of the reasons the UK economy has performed poorly since COVID - relative to those other countries we like to compare ourselves with - is the size of the workforce…

A week ago, the PM said “it looks to me” that P&O Ferries “has broken the law, and we will be taking action”.

Today the Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps, confirmed the government will not take be taking P&O to court because it is “not in the position to”.

So what happened? 🧵 Boris Johnson told MPs last week that he believed P&O has breached “section 194 of the Trade Union and Labour Relations Act of 1992”.

This states that “an employer who fails to give notice to the Sectetary of State” before dismissing more than 100 employees “commits an offence”

Some of Peter Hebblethwaite’s evidence is perplexing.

He claims P&O “has not been viable or competitive for a number of years.“

But he and the board of P&O declared the company was a “going concern” six months ago. One of these statements can’t be correct. On 24th Sept 2021, P&O management declared the company was financially stable enough to meet its obligations and continue to trade for the foreseeable future.

Hebblethwaite now justifies decision to sack crew without warning on grounds it has long been on cusp of insolvency.

The @RMTunion says P&O plans to restart its ferry service in Dover using agency crew from India + will pay them the equivalent of $2.38 (£1.80) an hour.

RMT doesn’t offer proof but this is plausible and - while some may find this shocking - it would be legal. I’ll explain… 🧵 Pride of Canterbury is one of P&O’s ferries in Dover. If you look carefully you’ll see it is registered in Limassol (Cyprus).

P&O trades internationally and its ships aren’t registered in UK so it is not subject to UK employment law and requirement to pay the UK minimum wage.

“I’m seething”

I’ve just spoken to a senior union source who says P&O tied-up their 3 ships at Port of Dover this morning and the company is in the process of telling c800 staff they are being made redundant.

The source says the unions weren’t consulted about the decision. “It’s completely unlawful”

The union source claims that the decision is driven by P&O’s desire to cut costs.

They expect P&O to offer staff generous settlements in an attempt to avoid legal action.

The WAB Impact Assessment suggests that the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol could have a quite harmful effect on trade within the UK. I say could because it’s clear that the government isn’t really sure what the impact will be. 1 in 5 companies in Northern Ireland imports goods from GB. 1 in 20 exports to GB. Government doesn’t know how many GB companies trade with NI. Says new customs/regulatory rules will “disproportionately affect” small and micro businesses.