Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Political scientist, University of Ottawa. Research politics, conflicts, policy & political communication in Ukraine, US & Canada. Ex-Harvard, SUNY, UofT & LoC.
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May 22 4 tweets 5 min read
#Zelensky reveals that 50 to 100 #Ukrainian soldiers are killed each day in Eastern #Ukraine at #RussiaUkraineWar. This means that about 1,500 to 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers are killed & 6.000-15,000 wounded each month only in Eastern #Ukraine. #Russia 1/ pravda.com.ua/news/2022/05/2… Ukrainian military casualty numbers revealed by #Zelenskyy exclude #RussiaUkraineWar in Southern #Ukraine and likely many those killed but reported as missing in action. Various gruesome videos & photos show bodies of many #Ukrainian soldiers lying on battlefields in #Donbas. 2/
May 20 12 tweets 4 min read
Article in the Maple includes my interview on how #UkraineRussiaWar could have been prevented. @readthemaple

#Ukraine️ #Russia #ukrainewar #RussianUkrainianWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #UkraineRussiaConflict
readthemaple.com/yes-the-ukrain… @readthemaple "“[The war] could have been avoided and prevented,” Katchanovski explained. Specifically, an agreement in which Ukraine promised to remain a neutral country and the fulfilment of the Minsk accords could have stopped Putin’s invasion, he said." 2/
May 19 4 tweets 5 min read
#Zelenskyy says that it will take lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians to defeat #Russia: "I have no doubt that we will win, but we must remember that the price of all this is tens of thousands of lives." #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraina
strana.news/news/391787-po… My research suggests that continuation of #RussianUkrainianWar war would likely result in tens of thousands of killed Ukrainians, while victory over #Russia is not very likely even with massive supplies of Western weapons & funding. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraina
May 19 6 tweets 5 min read
#Italy now proposes basically same peace plan that I proposed before & after start of #RussiaUkraineWar. Italy's plan:
Ceasefire
Ukraine's accession to EU & neutral status without joining NATO
#Ukraine - #Russia agreement on #Donbas & #Crimea
Peace & security treaty in Europe Like my #Ukraine peace plan: "Rapid accession to the EU and abandonment of NATO. Italy has developed a plan to end the war in Ukraine and submitted it to the UN Secretary General. It involves the rapid entry of Ukraine into the EU but military neutrality" strana.news/news/391716-it…
May 16 25 tweets 23 min read
There are #Ukrainian and #Russian reports of agreement to surrender of either wounded or all members of far-right-linked #Azov regiment and other Ukrainian units in besieged #Azovstal in #Mariupol

#UkraineRussianWar #UkraineRussia #Ukraine️ #Russia #NeoNazi #RussiaUkraineWar pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/…
May 12 5 tweets 4 min read
Change of #Russian policy to block not only #NATO but also now EU membership of #Ukraine makes peaceful resolution of #RussiaUkraineConflict much more difficult if not practically impossible. 1/ #Ukraine️RussiaWar #Russia #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineWar pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/… "Dmitry Polyansky, Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, said that Russia's position on the possible entry of Ukraine into the EU has changed and has become similar to the position on Ukraine's entry into NATO." 2/
May 11 4 tweets 5 min read
#FakeNews: Popular British @Daily_Express newspaper publishes my fake interview about #Putin's health & cites my real @SkyNewsAust interview about Putin's Victory Day speech & annexing parts of #Ukraine as source. Find 10 differences between two interviews by "Ivan Katchanovski." ImageImageImageImage @Daily_Express @SkyNewsAust My fake interview: "VLADIMIR Putin looked "rather frail" after being seen huddling underneath a blanket during the Victory Day parade, political analyst Ivan Katchanovski noted as he pointed out his top brass was excluded from the event." #UkraineWar express.co.uk/news/world/160…
May 10 4 tweets 3 min read
Maidan leadership member, who testified that Maidan leaders staged #Maidan massacre to seize power in #Ukraine, is killed in mysterious circumstances in #UkraineRussia frontline area. He said that his request to investigate them & himself was stonewalled. strana.news/news/390193-sm… He headed #Ukraine parliament committee during Maidan & election campaign of President Poroshenko party. His testimony that Maidan massacre was staged is corroborated by testimonies of over 500 witnesses, majority of wounded protesters & 14 Maidan snipers. researchgate.net/publication/35…
May 9 9 tweets 7 min read
I said in live @SkyNewsAust TV interview that #Putin in Victory Day speech on anniversary of Soviet-led defeat of #Nazi Germany claimed that #Russian & separatist forces in #Ukraine fight on their own land. This suggests intention to annex parts of Ukraine in East & South. 1/ @SkyNewsAust I also said in live Sky News Australia TV interview that, contrary to reports of US and Ukrainian intelligence, #Putin in Victory Day speech did not declare formally war with #Ukraine & mobilization for #RussiaUkraineWar. #UkraineRussianWar #Russia #UkraineWar 2/
May 5 16 tweets 12 min read
Proxy war & not peace: #Ukrainian media reports that "Russian side was almost ready for the Zelensky-Putin meeting" for peace deal to end #ukrainewar. But it was abandoned after British PM visited #Ukraine & told #Zelenskyy not to negotiate with #Putin. pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/… UP sources close to #Zelenskyy: "British Prime Minister Boris Johnson brought two simple messages:
"Putin is a war criminal, he needs to be squeezed, and not negotiated with him.
Second, if Ukraine is ready to sign any agreements on guarantees with him, then they [West] are not."
Apr 30 17 tweets 7 min read
My paper "The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine: Revelations from Trials and Investigation" is now available without registration at SSRN. In spite of overwhelming publicly available evidence, this mass killing in #Ukraine is still misrepresented. #Ukrainian 1/ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… "Maidan massacre trials and investigations have revealed various evidence that four killed and several dozen wounded policemen and at least the absolute majority of 49 killed and 157 wounded Maidan protesters were massacred by snipers in Maidan-controlled buildings and areas." 2/
Apr 26 13 tweets 16 min read
Various signs, such as explosions, shelling of state security building & statement by #Russia military commander, suggest that pro-Russian separatist #Transdniestria in #Moldova & #Russian troops there can enter #RussiaUkraineWar.
#UkraineRussianWar #Transnistria #Ukraine️war My dissertation-based "Cleft Countries" book analyzed pro-Western vs pro-Russian regional divides, separatism & conflicts in #Ukraine and #Moldova, in particular, in #Crimea, #Donbas, #Transdniestria & Gagauzia.

#Russia #UkraineRussianWar #RussiaUkraine
cup.columbia.edu/book/cleft-cou…
Apr 23 10 tweets 7 min read
UN mission confirms #WarCrimes in #Bucha: "During a mission to Bucha on 9 April, UN human rights officers documented the unlawful killing, including by summary execution, of some 50 civilians." #Ukraine️ #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar 1/ ohchr.org/en/press-relea… UN: "Wilful killing of protected persons, including summary executions, are gross violations of international human rights law and serious violations of international humanitarian law, and amount to war crimes." 2/
Apr 23 8 tweets 6 min read
Virtual #Russia - #Ukraine peace talks resumed yesterday: "According to Meduza's sources, who are familiar with the course of negotiations (from both the #Russian and #Ukrainian sides), several preliminary agreements were "concretized." #UkraineWar 1/ meduza.io/feature/2022/0… "Two agreements are currently being discussed:
the first agreement, a political one, on the neutral, non-nuclear status of Ukraine and the security guarantees that the guarantor countries will have to provide...
and the second about "mutual respect for cultures..."
#Russia 2/
Apr 22 9 tweets 3 min read
"Those who follow the news about the war in Ukraine represent between 57% and 77% of those surveyed in all but three of the 27 countries. The only exceptions are Japan (89%) and Sweden (83%) at one end of the spectrum and Malaysia (49%) at the other." 1/ ipsos.com/en/war-in-ukra… "27-country average of 82% say that the war in Ukraine poses a great deal or a fair amount of risk to the world as a whole; 61% say that it does to their country. The perception that one’s own country is facing a significant risk is most prevalent in Japan (87%), Poland (77%)" 2/
Apr 22 7 tweets 6 min read
Senior #Russian military official & various politicians openly suggest that Russia plans to seize from #Ukraine not only entire #Donbas but also other regions of Easters & Southern Ukraine & declare them independent or annex to #Russia via referendum. theguardian.com/world/2022/apr… My research & KMIS survey that I commissioned show that in contrast to #Crimea & #Donbas, only small minorities in other regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine, respectively 3% & 5% total, supported their region joining #Russia or independence. washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Apr 20 4 tweets 3 min read
Ivan Katchanovski, a Ukrainian political scientist at the University of Ottawa, says that there are neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine, and though they are a tiny proportion of the population, they have played an “outsized role” in political and military affairs csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2… “That is a gift to Russian propaganda, that these groups were not dealt with before,” says Professor Katchanovski. “Neo-Nazis are a relatively small segment of Ukraine, but the fact that they are integrated in the Ukrainian armed forces and tolerated by Zelenskyy is a problem. 2/
Apr 20 4 tweets 4 min read
"Another poll conducted by the CBS-AXA Center for Sociological Research and Marketing shows that 38.4% [of the Moldova population] finds Russia at fault [for the Russia-Ukraine war], 20.6% blame Ukraine, and 40% refused to answer or do not know." 1/ bne.eu/gagauzia-s-pro… "The tsars “proclaimed themselves defenders of the Orthodox people in the Balkans,” writes Ivan Katchanovski of the University of Ottawa." #Ukraine #Moldova #Russia 2/ researchgate.net/publication/24…
Apr 19 5 tweets 3 min read
Global economic impact of #RussiaUkraineWar: "The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia’s invasion could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs." 1/
theguardian.com/business/2022/… Global economic impact of #RussiaUkraineWar: "In a half-yearly update, the IMF said prospects had worsened “significantly” in the past three months as it reduced its growth estimate for 2022 from 4.4% to 3.6%." #Ukraine #Russia #UkraineRussiaWar 2/
Apr 17 4 tweets 4 min read
Public opinion in major countries of the world on the #RussiaUkraineWar

#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️ #Russia #RussiaUkraineWar #Nato #UkraineRussia #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraine #RussiaUkraineConflict "Russia is blamed for the conflict in Ukraine by a majority of respondents in Japan (81%), the United Kingdom (74%), Germany (67%), France (64%), Brazil (63%), and the United States (60%)." brandfinance.com/press-releases…
Apr 14 9 tweets 12 min read
I said in Turkey @trtworld TV interview that my research & survey commissioned before war show marginal support for joining #Russia in regions of Eastern & Southern #Ukraine, such as #Kherson, Odesa & #Kharkiv, with exceptions of #Donbas & #Crimea. 1/ @trtworld My TRT World TV interview: #Mariupol is now main battleground of #RussianUkrainianWar. Advances by #Russian & separatist forces in this besieged city & recent mass surrender of #Ukrainian troops suggest that it is likely to fall soon. 2/