Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Political scientist, University of Ottawa. Research politics, conflicts, policy & political communication in Ukraine, US & Canada. Ex-Harvard, SUNY, UofT & LoC.
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Mar 11 8 tweets 5 min read
Maloletka & Chernov, whose documentary "20 Days in Mariupol" is nominated for Oscar, also photographed Maidan massacre in Ukraine. Maloletka filmed far-right-linked Maidan snipers in Music Conservatory. 3 of them admitted in BBC & Ukrainian media interviews shooting police. Prosecutor General investigation confirmed my study findings that this group of Maidan snipers killed & wounded police.

Maidan massacre trial verdict confirmed my studies findings that this group of Maidan snipers was in Hotel Ukraina, that many Maidan activists were shot from this hotel & that it was controlled by Maidan. Nobody of them was arrested for this massacre. Moreover, far-right commander of this group of Maidan snipers was filmed & presented as hero in another Oscar-nominated documentary, entitled "Winter on Fire."
#Oscars2024 #Oscars "20 Days in Mariupol" just won Oscar for best documentary film. In addition to Oscar, Mstyslav Chernov & Evgeny Maloletka also won Pulitzer Prize & numerous other awards. #Oscars2024📷 #Oscars📷
Mar 1 8 tweets 5 min read
"Paris is considering the possibility of allowing special forces and other military units to cross the border of Ukraine in order to pose a “strategic dilemma” for the Russian Federation. This was reported in the article “Ukraine’s Western allies already have a military presence in the country” by the Monde newspaper, citing sources.

Emmanuel Macron's remarks on the possible dispatch of military reinforcements have implicitly lifted the veil on the already effective presence of members of various Western services on Ukrainian soil.

“All allied states are present in Ukraine. We are not talking about combat units, but, for example, there are representatives of each intelligence service,” a Ukrainian diplomatic source, who wished to remain anonymous, told the publication.

Officially, Paris denies the presence of its military in Ukraine. Possible permission to cross the Ukrainian border, according to Monde, is seen as a means of creating a “strategic dilemma” for Russia.

According to the publication, the French military presence could “protect some territories of Ukraine” and limit attacks from Russia."


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Feb 25 5 tweets 4 min read
More confirmations of proxy war & Ukraine as US client state since Western-backed violent overthrow of Ukrainian government 10 years ago: "The C.I.A. and other American intelligence agencies provide intelligence for targeted missile strikes, track Russian troop movements and help support spy networks... A secret nerve center of Ukraine’s military... is almost fully financed, and partly equipped, by the C.I.A. “One hundred and ten percent,” Gen. Serhii Dvoretskiy, a top intelligence commander, said in an interview at the base.

The listening post in the Ukrainian forest is part of a C.I.A.-supported network of spy bases constructed in the past eight years that includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border... The Ukrainians also helped the Americans go after the Russian operatives who meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

And the C.I.A. also helped train a new generation of Ukrainian spies who operated inside Russia, across Europe, and in Cuba and other places where the Russians have a large presence. The relationship is so ingrained that C.I.A. officers remained at a remote location in western Ukraine when the Biden administration evacuated U.S. personnel in the weeks before Russia invaded in February 2022. During the invasion, the officers relayed critical intelligence, including where Russia was planning strikes and which weapons systems they would use. “Without them, there would have been no way for us to resist the Russians, or to beat them,” said Ivan Bakanov, who was then head of Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency, the S.B.U.

The C.I.A.’s partnership in Ukraine can be traced back to two phone calls on the night of Feb. 24, 2014, eight years to the day before Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Millions of Ukrainians had just overrun the country’s pro-Kremlin government and the president, Viktor Yanukovych, and his spy chiefs had fled to Russia. In the tumult, a fragile pro-Western government quickly took power.

The government’s new spy chief, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, arrived at the headquarters of the domestic intelligence agency and found a pile of smoldering documents in the courtyard. Inside, many of the computers had been wiped or were infected with Russian malware.,,

He went to an office and called the C.I.A. station chief and the local head of MI6. It was near midnight but he summoned them to the building, asked for help in rebuilding the agency from the ground up, and proposed a three-way partnership. “That’s how it all started,” Mr. Nalyvaichenko said." nytimes.com/2024/02/25/wor…Image "Toward the end of 2021, according to a senior European official, Mr. Putin was weighing whether to launch his full-scale invasion when he met with the head of one of Russia’s main spy services, who told him that the C.I.A., together with Britain’s MI6, were controlling Ukraine and turning it into a beachhead for operations against Moscow." archive.is/on9vG#selectio…
Feb 17 4 tweets 2 min read
My interview concerning 10th anniversary of Maidan massacre in Ukraine, its role in origins of Russia-Ukraine war. corroboration of my academic studies by trial verdict in Ukraine & their blackout & misrepresentations by Western media & Wikipedia.
Interview by Pascal Lottaz, Associate Professor for Neutrality Studies at Kyoto University: "Due to the sad 10th anniversary of the Maidan Massacre, during which more 100 people were killed by Sniper fire on February 20, 2014, I will talk today to Ivan Katchanovski, who is a Ukranian (and Canadian) political scientist at the University of Ottawa and researched the Massacre in detail. Last year he published the paper “The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations”."
Feb 2 8 tweets 3 min read
Zaluzhny on eve of his expected firing by Zelensky shows his backing from far-right, which has power to overthrow Zelensky. Zaluzhny takes selfie with leader of far-right Right Sector & commander of Right Sector brigade of Ukrainian military in front of portrait of Nazi collaborator & far-right OUN leader Bandera & red & black flag of OUN-UPA & Right Sector. facebook.com/story.php?stor…Image Flag has "To victory without negotiations" slogan.
Jan 18 5 tweets 3 min read
Prime Minister of Slovakia is first EU country leader to admit publicly that West blocked peace deal to end Ukraine war in spring 2022 & used Ukraine for proxy war with Russia to last Ukrainian even though this was failed strategy:
"It is proven that right at the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, on at least two very promising occasions, the West did not allow the Ukrainians to conclude a ceasefire with fair conditions. Because a painfully wrong decision has already been made. The West will take advantage of Russia's violation of international law, supplying Ukraine with heaps of weapons, billions of dollars, burdening Russia with massive sanctions, attacking Russia's main mineral wealth revenues, and expecting a Ukrainian soldier, until the last one, to bring him the head of a Russian bear on a platter in the form of a militarily exhausted, economically ruined, internationally isolated and internally subverted Russia. This was, and unfortunately still is, a Western strategy that I say openly at home and abroad is not working, that it has failed." nazory.pravda.sk/analyzy-a-post…Image "Robert Fico: Western strategy in Ukraine simply doesn't work. The convulsions that accompany liberal demagoguery today in advocating the West's utterly failed strategy against Russia in Ukraine are beginning to cause wrinkles on my forehead.
Robert Fico, Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic." nazory.pravda.sk/analyzy-a-post…Image
Jan 14 12 tweets 3 min read
Ex-adviser of Zelensky & member of Ukrainian delegation at peace talks in spring 2022 says that this was "most profitable draft of agreement" Ukraine could have, Arestovich says that
it was "completely successful negotiation" & Ukrainian delegation even opened bottle of champaign. He claims that he does not know why this peace deal was scrapped.

But self-proclaimed experts & fake news peddlers label as "conspiracy theory" & "Kremlin disinformation" peace deal framework agreement that was confirmed by head of Ukrainian delegation, officials close to Zelensky, ex-Israeli PM, ex-German chancellor, Turkish FM, former senior US officials, ex-adviser of Zelensky & member of Ukrainian delegation at peace talks. First five suggested that deal was blocked by US/UK. But these self-proclaimed experts & fake news peddlers resort to primitive fraud to deny this.
Dec 29, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Wow! Thank you @DavidSacks for making very large donation for making my forthcoming book, entitled "From the Maidan to the Russia-Ukraine War," open access via This book will be published next year by major Western academic press following very positive peer-reviews.gofund.me/0fdbbf72 Self-proclaimed experts, like one that @DavidSacks mentioned, not only propagate fakes about Ukraine conflict & resort to attack & censorship of scholars, like me, but also propagate fakes about open-access book publishing. Open access books are published by various top academic presses, & they typically funded via combination of crowdfunding & university grants, like my book. osc.cam.ac.uk/monographs/ope…
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Dec 28, 2023 17 tweets 8 min read
Wow! Ukraine Ambassador Chalyi, who participated in peace talks with Russia in Spring 2022, states that "we concluded" "Istanbul Communique" & "were very close in... April to finalize our war with some peaceful settlement" & that Putin "tried everything possible to conclude agreement with Ukraine." He says that it was Putin's "personal decision to accept the text of this communique."

Such peace deal framework to end war was also confirmed by head of Ukrainian delegation, officials close to Zelensky, ex-Israeli PM, ex-German chancellor, Putin, Turkish FM, former US officials & Arestovych. First five stated that deal was blocked by US/UK.

Thank you @kvk4 for alerting me about this. "There the Ukrainian side pre­sented a ten-point “Istanbul Communiqué” outlining conditions for a cease-fire, perma­nent Ukrainian neutrality and international security guarantees. It also proposed clari­fying the status of Crimea within fifteen years. Remaining points of contention were to be resolved at a meeting of the two presi­dents. The text did not include the Ukrain­ian demand for Russian forces to withdraw to behind the line of contact as of 23 Feb­ruary 2022.

The Istanbul Communiqué laid out Ukraine’s position and its response to the original Russian ultimatum. The document offered far-reaching concessions. Participants in the talks emphasised that the Com­muniqué had been pre-agreed by the par­ties and could have formed the basis for a negotiated settlement." swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2022C…
Dec 25, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
To the last Ukrainian: People with "amputated limbs, practical blindness, absence of one lung or eye and bilateral deafness" can be conscripted into military based on draft of new law on mobilization.

"The large draft law on mobilization exempts from military service on the basis of health status only in the presence of the first and second groups of disabilities. The third group is not mentioned in the draft document, so they are automatically considered suitable.

Assigning the third group of disabilities means quite serious health problems, in particular limb amputations. Here are the main examples:

absence of one lung or eye;
practical blindness resulting from an occupational disease, occupational disability or military injury. One eye after a domestic injury or illness;
bilateral deafness;
paralysis or absence of a hand, paralysis of the upper or lower limbs;
a significant defect of the bones of the skull, pulsation of the brain;
the absence of a hand and a higher level of amputation of the upper limb;
the absence of all phalanges of the four fingers of the hand, except for the first;
absence of fingers on the hand, stump of the thigh or lower leg;
congenital or acquired dislocation of the hip joints or one hip joint with significant functional impairment;
complete thyroidectomy (removal of the thyroid gland);
artificial valve in the heart;
absence of one kidney with pathology of the other;
bilateral mastectomy (breast removal in women due to mammary gland diseases).

The draft law on mobilization, which is being prepared, provides for new duties for Ukrainians. On December 21, MP Maryana Bezugla  published  on Facebook theses from the upcoming document, from which it follows that everyone is obliged to appear at the military commissariat to clarify personal data and undergo a medical examination. There will no longer be a category of "limited suitability" for service." enovosty.com/uk/news-ukr/ne…Image
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"Ukraine's government introduces bill on improving mobilisation and military records." Text of this bill is absent on site of parliament, & the bill webpage is down because of heavy traffic even though it is middle of the night in Ukraine. pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

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Dec 21, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
To the last Ukrainian: "Ukrainian men aged 25-60 living in Germany and other countries should report to Armed Forces enlistment centres next year or face sanctions, Defence Minister Rustem Umierov has said.
Source: Welt, citing Umierov’s interview with WELT TV, Bild and Politico

Quote from Welt: "Ukrainians living in Germany who are fit for military service should strengthen the Ukrainian army next year. The Minister of Defence said that those who do not comply with this requirement will face sanctions."

The news outlet reiterated that the Ukrainian military wanted to mobilise another 450,000 to 500,000 soldiers to repel the Russian invasion." pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…Image
Dec 16, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
It looks like @nytimes & other Western media reverse narrative concerning #UkraineWar : "Ukrainian Marines on ‘Suicide Mission’ in Crossing the Dnipro River. Soldiers frustrated by positive reports from Ukrainian officials break their silence, describing the effort as brutalizing and, ultimately, futile." nytimes.com/2023/12/16/wor…Image @nytimes
Dec 4, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
"It’s becoming increasingly difficult to deny the war in Ukraine could have been ended mere months into the Russian invasion — and that the U.S. and U.K. governments worked to prevent this from happening.

The latest piece of corroboration comes courtesy David Arakhamia, the parliamentary leader of Zelensky’s “Servant of the People” party who led the Ukrainian delegation in peace talks with Moscow. Arakhamia told journalist Natalia Moseichuk in a recent televised interview that “Russia's goal was to push us to take neutrality,” meaning to commit to not joining NATO, and that “they were ready to end the war if we accept neutrality.”

There were several reasons the negotiations ultimately collapsed, he said, including the need to change the Ukrainian constitution (which had been amended in February 2019 to enshrine the country’s NATO aspirations), and the fact that Johnson had come to Kyiv to inform Ukrainian officials the West wouldn’t sign any agreement with Moscow, instead urging: “let’s just fight.”"
Image "The interview corroborates claims first reported in May 2022 by the broadly Western-aligned Ukrainska Pravda outlet — which reported that Boris Johnson told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the West wouldn’t support any peace deal regardless of what Ukraine wanted, and they preferred to keep taking the fight to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was less powerful than they had thought.

Johnson had himself confirmed , albeit not in so many words, in a phone call to French President Emmanuel Macron that he had urged Zelensky against peace.

All of it lends further weight to multiple accounts over the course of the past 21 months that have claimed Ukraine and Russia were on the brink of peace, but were blocked by NATO states eager for a prolonged war that would weaken Russia and possibly destabilize it.

Former U.S. national security official Fiona Hill reported the two sides had reached a tentative peace deal the same month of Johnson’s surprise visit to Kyiv, while former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder , former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett , and several Turkish officials — all of whom were involved at various times in the talks — have said that NATO officials stopped or undermined negotiations."
Nov 29, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Admission by Arestovich, ex-adviser of Zelensky & negotiating group member: “The Russian side still insisted on peace initiatives. And the Istanbul peace initiatives were very good, an intermediary document... Now 200-300 thousand would be alive, probably, and half of Ukraine would not be destroyed and mined... They agreed to political discussions on Crimea... We made concessions, but the amount of their concessions was greater. This will never happen again, it won’t, they will push more and more.”
As I stated in my studies, interviews & social media posts: "There have been many more additional civilian casualties as a result of the ongoing war versus a possible peace deal that was close to agreement by the beginning of April 2022." researchgate.net/publication/36…
Nov 24, 2023 14 tweets 6 min read
Now head of Zelensky party faction in Ukrainian parliament & head of Ukrainian delegation in Ukraine-Russia talks confirms that peace deal could have been reached in spring 2022 if Ukraine agreed to neutrality.
He said that Russia was ready to end the war in such case and that Ukrainian neutrality was main Russian condition. He also confirmed that Western countries told Zelensky not to sign peace deal.

His original interview in Ukrainian:
Nov 21, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Orwellian: Maidan massacre trial verdict in Ukraine confirms that snipers in far-right-controlled Hotel Ukraina & other Maidan-controlled locations massacred many Maidan activists & shot at BBC & ARD TV journalists. It confirms that there were no massacre orders from Yanukovych or his ministers. Verdict states that EuroMaidan then was not peaceful protest but “armed rebellion” which involved massacre of Berkut and other police.
Nov 21, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read
Wow! Maidan massacre trial verdict confirms that Hotel Ukraina rooms of German ARD TV journalists were shot from "territory controlled by "Maidan,"" specifically, Main Post Office (far-right Right Sector headquarters) & Conservatory, occupied by far-right-linked Maidan company. There are no investigation & no media reports even though bullet from Right Sector HQ narrowly missed female ARD producer in her room 925. ARD Moscow correspondents claimed that Maidan snipers is "conspiracy theory" even though now Maidan massacre trial verdict confirms that Maidan snipers massacred many Maidan protesters and police and shot at ARD and BBC TV journalists.

Verdict: "In addition, the specified data proved with all propriety that the premises of the "Ukraine" hotel were the object of massive shelling with firearms of various calibers, in particular,... from the side of the Conservatory - according to the examined photo and video materials, the territory controlled by "Maidan" (room No. 825); from the side of the Central Post Office - according to the examined photo and video materials, the territory controlled by "Maidan" (room No. 925)."



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Nov 4, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
Wow! After blocking much more favorable peace deal to Ukraine in spring 2022, "U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say. The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

Officials also have privately said Ukraine likely only has until the end of the year or shortly thereafter before more urgent discussions about peace negotiations should begin. U.S. officials have shared their views on such a timeline with European allies, officials said.

They began amid concerns among U.S. and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and about the ability to continue providing aid to Ukraine, officials said. Biden administration officials also are worried that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia has a seemingly endless supply, officials said. Ukraine is also struggling with recruiting and has recently seen public protests about some of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open-ended conscription requirements."
Image Quelle surprise! Biden throws Zelensky & his war & NATO membership policies under bus: "As incentive for Zelenskyy to consider negotiations, NATO could offer Kyiv some security guarantees, even without Ukraine formally becoming part of the alliance, officials said. That way, officials said, the Ukrainians could be assured that Russia would be deterred from invading again.

Administration officials expect Ukraine to want more time to fight on the battlefield, particularly with new, heavier equipment, “but there’s a growing sense that it’s too late, and it’s time to do a deal,” the former senior administration official said. It is not certain that Ukraine would mount another spring offensive.

President Joe Biden has been intensely focused on Ukraine’s depleting military forces, according to two people familiar with the matter."
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Oct 27, 2023 12 tweets 9 min read
Wow! Unreported 1,000,000-word Maidan massacre trial verdict corroborates my academic studies by stating as its “categorical conclusion” that there were snipers shooting from Maidan-controlled Hotel Ukraina & that it cannot be ruled out that 8 protesters were killed & 20 wounded by “unknown persons,” who were not "law enforcement officers." This implies Maidan snipers since the verdict states that the trial disproved claims about presence of Russian snipers.


The verdict also confirms my study findings that there is no evidence of order given by Yanukovych or his ministers to massacre Maidan protesters and that 4 police officers were killed & 39 wounded by Maidan-snipers. In addition to acquitting two Berkut policemen for killing and wounding protesters, it states that all accused Berkut members were baselessly blamed for killing 13 & wounding 29 Maidan protesters. As usual there are zero media reports.

Prosecution, Maidan lawyers, media with some exceptions, self-proclaimed experts & propaganda peddlers denied shooting by snipers located in Maidan-controlled Hotel Ukraina & called it conspiracy theory.
My open access peer-reviewed journal article: "This study analyzes which party of the conflict was involved in the 2014 Maidan massacre in Ukraine. The massacre of Maidan protesters and the police on 20 February 2014 was a turning point in Ukrainian politics. This mass killing led to the overthrow of the Ukrainian government and spiraled into a civil war in Donbas, Russian military intervention in Crimea and Donbas, the Russian annexation of Crimea, and conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and between the West and Russia that Russia drastically escalated by launching its illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This article proposes and tests the moral hazard theory of the state repression backfire. Content analysis of synchronized videos, testimonies by several hundred witnesses, confessions by 14 self-admitted members of Maidan sniper groups, and bullet hole locations show that both the police and protesters were massacred by Maidan snipers located in Maidan-controlled buildings and areas. Content analysis of synchronized videos revealed that the specific time and direction of shooting by Berkut policemen, who were charged with the massacre, did not coincide with the killing of specific protesters. Testimonies by the absolute majority of wounded protesters and some 100 witnesses and forensic examinations by ballistic and medical experts for the Maidan massacre trial and investigation in Ukraine corroborate this. The article shows that the false-flag massacre was rationally organized and carried out with the involvement of oligarchic and far-right elements of the Maidan opposition to overthrow the incumbent government in Ukraine."tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
Oct 21, 2023 16 tweets 6 min read
Wow! Ex leader of Germany confirms revelations by ex Israeli PM & Ukrainian media: "At the peace negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 with Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainians did not agree on peace because they were not allowed to. For everything they discussed, they first had to ask the Americans. I had two talks with Umerov, then a one-on-one meeting with Putin, and then with Putin's envoy. Umerov opened the conversation with greetings from Zelensky. As a compromise for Ukraine's security guarantees, the Austrian model or the 5+1 model was proposed. Umerow thought that was a good thing. He also showed willingness on the other points. He also said that Ukraine does not want NATO membership. He also said that Ukraine wants to reintroduce Russian in the Donbass. But in the end, nothing happened. My impression was that nothing could happen, because everything else was decided in Washington. That was fatal. Because the result will now be that Russia will be tied more closely to China, which the West should not want.

And the Europeans?

They have failed. There would have been a window in March 2022. The Ukrainians were ready to talk about Crimea. This was even confirmed by the Bild newspaper at the time.

(Gerhard Schroeder shows a page from the BILD newspaper with the title "Finally peace in sight?". It says: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) himself had already hinted at concessions for negotiations: He no longer insists on his country's accession to NATO, he told the US broadcaster ABC. And he is also ready for a 'compromise' on Crimea and the breakaway provinces in the Donbass. 'In every negotiation, my goal is to end the war with Russia,' Zelensky told BILD.

In 2022, I received a request from Ukraine asking if I could mediate between Russia and Ukraine. The question was whether I could convey a message to Putin. There would also be someone who would have a very close relationship with the Ukrainian president himself. This was Rustem Umerov, the current Minister of Defense of Ukraine. He is a member of the Crimean Tatar minority. Then the question was: How to end the war?"
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Oct 18, 2023 7 tweets 12 min read
Wow! Maidan massacre trial in Ukraine acquits 2 Berkut policemen charged with Maidan massacre. This corroborates my academic studies. As I predicted based on political reasons, it convicts in absentia 3 Berkut officers, who were exchanged by Zelensky to Donbas separatists. Videos, forensic ballistic examinations & testimonies of eyewitnesses show that they also did not massacre Maidan protesters & charges against them were also trumped up in order to cover up Maidan snipers & Maidan leaders.

Synchronized videos show that specific time and direction of shooting by Berkut policemen did not coincide with killing of specific protesters. Forensic medical examinations revealed that nearly all Maidan protesters were shot from steep directions from the sides or back, which matched the Maidan-controlled buildings and did not match the Berkut police on the ground in front of the protesters. The absolute majority of wounded Maidan protesters, over 500 witnesses & self-admitted Maidan snipers testified that Maidan protesters and the Berkut police were massacred by snipers located in Maidan-controlled buildings. Government ballistic experts also determined in onsite investigative experiments that many protesters were shot from the Hotel Ukraina and other Maidan-controlled buildings.

The evidence includes cover-up of Maidan snipers, disappearance of the key evidence, such as security camera footage, many bullets, all shields and all but a couple of helmets of the Maidan protesters and stonewalling of the investigations and trials by the Maidan governments and the far right, and denials by the prosecution that there were any snipers in the Maidan-controlled buildings. Findings of nearly 40 previous forensic ballistic examinations, including conducted by automatic computer-based IBIS-TAIS system, were reversed without any explanation. Synchronized videos show that these Berkut policemen were not even shooting at specific times when these protesters were killed.


The trial decision in the case of 3 Berkut policemen convicted in absentia is not based on such evidence because of political pressure, since the executive branch in Ukraine often interferes in court decisions in such high-profile cases, and the far-right activists repeatedly attacked and threatened the trial.

It is revealing that even after the Maidan massacre trial, there is no one imprisoned for this massacre.


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"The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations":
"Careful analysis of publicly available evidence revealed during the Maidan massacre trials and investigations, shows beyond reasonable doubt that the four killed and several dozen wounded policemen, and nearly all of the 49 killed and 157 wounded Maidan protesters, were shot by snipers in Maidan-controlled buildings and areas. Even the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s investigation determined that about half of Maidan protesters were wounded from locations other than the Berkut police positions and did not charge anyone with their attempted murder. The GPU investigation also initially found that the snipers in the Hotel Ukraina massacred the protesters. This hotel was controlled at the time by the far-right Svoboda party, which stated before the massacre that it took it under its control and guard.

The absolute majority of wounded Maidan protesters, with whose shooting Berkut policemen are charged and whose testimonies were revealed at the trial, testified at the trial and the investigation that they were shot by snipers from the Hotel Ukraina and other Maidan-controlled buildings or witnessed snipers there. Nearly 200 witnesses, including dozens of the prosecution witnesses, also testified about snipers in these Maidan-controlled locations, in particular, massacring the police and the protesters.

Synchronized videos presented at the trial show that the times and directions of the shots by the Berkut policemen did not coincide with the times and directions at which specific protesters were killed. Other videos showed Maidan protesters being lured into positions that were exposed to snipers from such Maidan-controlled buildings as the Hotel Ukraina.

Forensic medical examinations by government experts determined that the majority of the protesters were shot from a steep angle from either the side or back. This is consistent with locations of the Maidan-controlled buildings, and inconsistent with the locations of the Berkut police on the ground. Also, the initial ballistic examinations did not match the bullets extracted from the bodies of killed and wounded to the Kalashnikov rifles used by Berkut.

The accidental killing and wounding of a small number of protesters by the Berkut police by ricochet bullets, or in a crossfire with snipers in the Maidan- controlled buildings, cannot be completely excluded because of the lack of publicly available data or because of contradictory data. But their killing and wounding together with other protesters suggests that they were also likely shot by the Maidan snipers.

Nor did the trials and investigations reveal any evidence that President Yanukovych or his law enforcement ministers and commanders ordered the massacre. Forensic examinations of the bullet holes by the government experts and the videos they presented showed that the Berkut policemen were mostly shooting above the Maidan protesters, and in particular into the Hotel Ukraina, which was the main location of the snipers...

There are various indications of stonewalling and cover-up of key evidence. It is noteworthy that the government investigation denied presence of any snipers in the Maidan-controlled buildings, in spite of its own initial findings that no fewer than 13 protesters were killed, and at least 77 wounded, from shot fired from the Maidan-controlled buildings and areas. When bullet trajectories, as determined by government ballistic experts and lasers in on-site-investigative experiments, showed that many Maidan protesters had been shot at from the Hotel Ukraina and other Maidan-controlled buildings, this result was covered-up and ballistic experts were no longer used. The GPU did not use ballistic experts to determine the bullet trajectories and locations of shooters even after being ordered to do so by the judge and the jury.

Unexplained reversals of results of some 40 forensic ballistic examinations, including computer-based examination which showed that bullets of Berkut Kalashnikovs did not match bullets from bodies of killed Maidan protesters, also suggest a cover-up and evidence tampering. Synchronized content analysis of the videos of the Berkut police and killed and wounded protesters along with locations and directions of wounds in forensic medical examination, testimonies of eyewitnesses among Maidan protesters, and on-site investigative experiments by government ballistic experts show that Maidan protesters could not had been physically shot from the Berkut positions,

Not a single person has been convicted or is currently under arrest for the Maidan massacre after more than nine years of investigation and trials, despite this being one of the best documented cases of mass murder in history, and one of the most significant human rights violations in independent Ukraine. This massacre, and the subsequent assassinations attempts against President Yanukovych, resulted in the violent overthrow of the Ukrainian government, and this ‘false-flag’ mass killing must be seen as a key part of this violent and undemocratic overthrow of the government in Ukraine.

These findings have major implications for understanding the ‘Euromaidan’ and the origins of the violent conflict in Ukraine and the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Russia and the West. This false-flag massacre led to the de facto Western-backed violent overthrow of the Ukrainian government, which spiraled into the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the civil war, and Russian military interventions in Donbas.

The trials and investigation revelations show that not popular “Euromaidan” protests but this staged mass killing and assassination attempts against Yanukovych were decisive in his overthrow. They demonstrate that, contrary to the dominant narratives in Ukraine and the West, the political transition during the “Euromaidan” was undemocratic. This mass killing of the protesters and the police also was one of the most significant political crimes and human rights violations in history of independent Ukraine.

The failure of the Ukrainian law enforcement and justice system to provide proper justice in the case of the Maidan massacre undermined the rule of law and prospects for reconciliation within the Ukrainian society, which was divided to various degree and largely along regional lines in terms of support for the Maidan protests and on many other political issues during and after the “Euromaidan.” The Maidan massacre trial verdict is unlikely to ensure justice because of the politization of this case and lack of independence of the judicial branch, especially at the time of the Ukraine-Russia war. The same concerns the failure of international organizations, such as the International Criminal Court, the Council of Europe, and the UN Security Council, to ensure justice in this crucial case.

The far-right involvement in the Maidan massacre of the police and the protesters and the failure to investigate, prosecute, and punish the far right for this mass killing resulted in the far right attaining oversize influence in the Ukrainian politics and de facto immunity for other violence or threats of violence.

The Maidan massacre gave start to conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and between the West and Russia, which Russia drastically escalated by invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian leaders claim that a fascist coup in Ukraine was conducted during the Maidan, with Western government involvement, and that a Nazi regime is in power in Ukraine. He has used this claim to justify the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022. However, scholarly studies show that the Russian government exaggerates the role of neo-Nazis during and after the Maidan, that the Ukrainian governments are not Nazi or neo-Nazi, and that the Russian invasion is illegal under the international law.59 Simply put, the Maidan massacre does not justify the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine. Conversely, the Russian invasion does not justify the Maidan massacre of the police and the protesters.

The Maidan massacre, the oligarchic and far-right elements involved in this mass killing, and the lack of justice in this crucial case of political violence had significant negative consequences to Ukraine and Ukrainians directly and indirectly, i.e., as result of spiraling conflicts that it provoked. This was one of factors that indirectly contributed to Ukraine’s loss of largely pro-Russian Crimea as result of the Russian annexation, and to the loss of most of Donbas as result of separatist rebellion and Russian military interventions in August 2014 and January 2015. Understanding the Maidan massacre and bringing to justice its perpetrators could have helped to resolve peacefully the conflicts in Ukraine and Ukraine-Russia conflicts and to prevent the Ukraine-Russia war.

The Maidan massacre and those who were involved in this mass killing by starting the conflicts spiral and the failure to bring justice by failing to prevent conflict escalation also indirectly contributed to the Ukraine-Russia war with its large human and economic costs to Ukraine and Ukrainians and likely permanent loss of annexed Donbas and parts of other Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine.60 Ukraine is unlikely to defeat Russia without the direct Western participation in this war.

This does not absolve Russia of direct responsibility for its illegal invasion, military interventions, and annexations in Ukraine and human and economic toll of the Ukraine-Russia war. The outcome of this war would determine not only the future of Ukraine but also of the future of Ukrainian-Russian relations and the world order.

The Maidan massacre trial and investigation did not reveal evidence of Russian or Western governments involvement in this crucial mass killing. The de facto backing by the West of the violent overthrow of the democratically elected and relatively pro-Russian government in Ukraine by means of the Maidan massacre and assassination attempts also contributed to the start of the conflicts in Crimea and Donbas and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and the West which now escalated into the Ukraine-Russia war and a proxy war between the West and Russia in Ukraine, which became a US client state after the “Euromaidan.” Therefore, the Maidan massacre and the failure to ensure justice ultimately have significant indirect global consequences, which can further increase in unlikely but not excluded case of a direct war between NATO and Russia with a danger of a nuclear war over Ukraine. The puzzling misrepresentation of the Maidan massacre by the West and its failure to help advance justice in this case requires further research.

The different narratives of the Maidan massacre and regime change in Ukraine have complicated peaceful resolutions of the conflicts in Crimea and Donbas and Ukraine-Russia and the West-Russia conflicts, and poisoned relations between Russia and Ukraine. They have also fed into the proxy war over Ukraine between the West and Russia, and are therefore likely to complicate Ukrainian-Russian relations long after the war. Bringing the actual perpetrators of the Maidan massacre in Ukraine to justice is a difficult, but necessary, step in resolving these dangerous conflicts."brill.com/view/journals/…