Eyeing 0.027/0.028 for ETH/BTC. The blue level represents the last zone for ETH/BTC as it would mean rebalancing the whole move initiated in 2021, a very HTF one.

If you scroll back, this area is something I was expecting since 2023, so it’s not a mystery to me that Ethereum is performing in such a “bad” manner. (compared to the rest of the coins because alone it has already made significant gains).

This slow bleed has made plenty of ETH holders complain by the opportunity cost and wonder about the performance in relationship with the tech, but is never about the tech, is only about the liquidity.

When such HTF zones get fully rebalanced they often tend to produce at least strong bounces because they contain huge batches of orders pending.

Logically, nothing is 100% guaranteed as trading is about probabilities, but in this case the probability is relatively high considering that the pair is trading at extreme discount levels.

Furthermore, it’s curious to see this happening during a SOL outperformance since it’s mentally devastating for ETH holders to see a “competitor” taking over and they might dump their prehistoric bags to chase the hype of a new “groundbreaking” technology sustained by Trump.

If we see Bitcoin producing a correction with such a high BTC D, Ethereum will suffer twice leading to 0.027/28 and potentially going sub 3K, at least that's my idea.

In this case, if you see ETH breaking below 3K you should look at the last imbalance left behind in early November which is full of liquidity (there are 2+1 juicy levels where the “+1” represents a weaker one) also taking note of the USDT D.

Happening simultaneously?

You're likely gonna have a powerful confirmation for a big swing to catch.

I never talk about altcoins, but today I'm gonna make an exception using $KAS as educational example. (if you're sensitive or a fanboy, this post is definitely not for you)

On the 15th of August I shared a potential Wyckoff distribution schematic as the price was at its LPSY point in the scheme.

At that moment in fact, KAS was creating a daily BOS below the 2 EQLs at 0.1544$ + below the 19 November 2023 high + below the uptrend trendline.

These signs, mixed with the 3 drives bearish pattern were highlighting a lot of weakness which has been completely ignored by the fact that fundamentals were all pointing "up only".

Cult members and fanboys pushed the "hashrate is going up", "KAS is BTC with better technology" and all of these fairytales that serve nothing but forcing retails to buy this coin at extreme premium levels.

And almost 2 months later, this is the situation:

The price has broken below the 0.15$ confirming the thesis.

"Does this mean that KAS is cooked? Macro top?"

Unlikely, especially if BTC will reach new highs as we expect but this weakness is costing time (and money) since the HTF trend is bearish.

Apart from the classic laws of price action to determine further downside (therefore level by level) I'm quite sure that, sooner or later, Kaspa will see 0.050$.

Not now, it has still room in the overall cycle, but this is a warning to take profits once the harvest time will come.

Respect the patterns.

Respect the price action.

Respect the blessing of experiencing huge profits.

For the rest that will prefer to believe in Kaspa fundamentals..good luck, you'll need it.
The reason why I never share these types of things publicly is that X is a highly toxic place.

Just look at the replies below my post:

“You’re a noob”

“🤡😂”

“You don't know a sh*t”.

You have to understand that what I post is never to bash, but to make sure you don't fall for the illusions I’ve been sucked into and that cost me a lot.

Because at the moment it seems a pipe dream and you don't take into consideration the downside aspect, but when the real bear market begins, you will pray for having a time machine that allows you to take profits.

Assets are assets, they won't go up forever.

But I can understand on a side..is part of the learning process.

I’ve been in the same situation where, back in the past, I was made with people who were providing a contrarian view, blocking and labeling them as “stupids”.

Then, after plenty of mistakes and monetary sacrifices, I opened my eyes.

Those who read my post with an open mind will understand that I talk for the good.

The others will simply mock, insult and open their eyes later.

Part of this beautiful game.

Wider perspective on Bitcoin that adds confluence to what we said yesterday:

We lost that consistent demand zone with the last sharp BOS and we’re now retesting the 60K psychological level.

Outcomes are 2, in my opinion:

• Bearish retest
• Sweep the liquidity toward the last gap (💧) / spike into the bearish OB and continue down

Only HTF closures above the 0.382 would change the structure putting Bitcoin in a bullish posture. Liquidity swept as expected.

Now let's see what we got.

The majority continue to be skeptical remaining sidelined.

But at the current stage of the market, it can be a mistake.

𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 4 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧'𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞: First up, bookmark the tweet above so you can have a compass for the future. 👆

In this post:
• Macro chart
• Market structure
• DXY chart
• My plan and considerations

I lost a lot of time in my life paying attention to what didn't matter.

But this waste of time has been a supreme teacher for my growth.

𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝟏𝟎 𝐩𝐢𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐲 𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐞: 1. Launch a passion

I was scared to put everything of myself into this account.

People were mocking me.

“You’re ridiculous with this online stuff”

Now my life has improved and I found my vocation.

Never be afraid of what others think, just do what makes you happy.

Altcoin cycles are fascinating, as very juicy gains can be made.

But be warned: not every altcoin will soar to new ATHs.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗺𝘆 𝘁𝗶𝗽 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀: The altcoin sector tends to rise across a full bull run, performing extremely well during the alt season.

• Tokenomics
• Project
• Team
• Community

All of these things contribute to picking your favorite horse.

But what truly matters to perform?

Narratives and charts.

My 6-year crypto journey has been a wild ride of lessons.

Instead of wallowing in despair, these experiences have fueled my growth and profitability.

𝑯𝒆𝒓𝒆 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 10 𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝑰 𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒉 𝑰 𝒌𝒏𝒆𝒘 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒅𝒂𝒚 𝒐𝒏𝒆: 1. There is no free lunch in crypto

Along your journey, you'll find attractive APYs and projects that might appear as “the next big thing”.

Everything involves risk in crypto, no matter how promising it seems.

Use proper risk management and don't get scammed.

LUNA docet.

Laziness is something that holds us back from our goals.

It is the disease of the new millennium.

Here are 8 effective ways I use to avoid it and boost my productivity to the highest level. 1. Fractionalize goals

Bigger goals could be seen as barriers from our brains, holding us back to achieve them.

Breaking down big goals into small steps helps us to see them as more achievable, creating a positive loop where we will feel motivated and inclined to work more.

Having an exit plan sets you apart from 90% of the people.

I discovered it the hard way, during my 2017 first crypto bull run.

Here are 3 simple exit plans you can implement:

1/9 🧵 The 3 following plans contain different strategies depending on your risk tolerance.

There might be people who like to play more cautious and others that like to go full degen.

Everything must be adapted to your goals, time horizons and attitude.

We will use 1000$ as example.

Crypto influencers, like traditional influencers, make a living from their accounts.

Here are 5 ways these digital rockstars might be making money off of you, the good and the bad side + how to protect yourself. ~ Incentives attitude ~

When you look at an account, ask yourself:

“Why is he doing it?”

This will help you to avoid becoming sacrificial exit liquidity.

Let’s therefore analyze the most common type of business.

Market analysis, thoughts, considerations and potential outcomes.

Let's break them down.

1/13 🧵👇 1.
~ Bigger scheme ~

Where we could be in the cycle?

I'm seeing 3 different opinions:
• “New lows are coming”
• “ATH this year because no one expects it”
• Ranging market until the next year

I honestly tend to exclude the first 2 opinions, I'm moderate.

“The Wolf Of Wall Street” is one of my favorite financial films ever.

I extracted the best lessons applying them to business.

Here is a list of the 8 most effective ones that will help you to grow in business and make money.

1/21🧵👇 1.
~ Concept streamlining ~

The reason for Belfort’s success was because he was able to transform uneducated people into charismatic brokers and dictate his knowledge by simplifying concepts in a way that even the poorest employees could understand.

Being early to the right crypto narratives can be very lucrative.

And since this world is in continuous evolution, it's not easy to spot them.

Here are 8 narratives that I'm paying attention to, some related protocols + personal considerations.

1/19 🧵👇 1.
~ LSD ~

The Ethereum Shanghai update has given the possibility to investors to stake/unstake their ETH at any time.

This can hugely benefit Liquid Staking Derivatives platforms.

Some protocols I'm eyeing:
• RocketPool
• Lido Finance
• Frax
• Lybra

Speculative bubbles are a classic phenomenon that could lead to big profits but also massacres.

Being able to recognize them could make a huge impact on your portfolio.

Here is my speculative bubbles analysis and how to identify one before it's too late.

1/22 🧵👇 1.
~ What is it ~

A financial bubble is a situation in which the prices of assets rise to unsustainable levels driven by excessive speculation and investor optimism.

It is characterized by a rapid and exaggerated increase in asset price, detached from its intrinsic value.

Cryptocurrency drawdowns are gut-wrenching and can lead to poor decision-making.

Learning token dynamics will help you to identify which tokens to hold and which ones to dump ASAP.

Here is my top token drawdown dynamics list.

1/22 🧵👇 1.
~ Common fears ~

People sell tokens mainly because:
• They think the market will be doomed forever
• They hear FUD
• They’re way too overexposed
• They only hold low caps (which suffer the most)
• They rely on emotions

These are the common ones.

The crypto-gaming industry is one of the hottest sectors with many projects that have blown up during the last bull run.

But many others have died.

Here is my analysis of the health status of the gaming industry, and what we can expect from crypto gaming.

1/21 🧵👇 1.
~ Expansion status ~

The gaming industry has been in a growth mode during the last years, with the Covid pandemic that has accelerated global revenues.

And analysts expect the trend to continue, with 321 billion by 2026 as a possible target.

“The Art Of War” by Sun Tzu is one of my favorite books ever.

It contains a lot of powerful lessons that could be used to improve both your life and your crypto journey.

Here are my 8 Sun Tzu’s favorite lessons applied to crypto that will leverage your growth.

1/18 👇🧵 1.
~ Timing is essential ~

"The quality of decision is like the well-timed swoop of a falcon which enables it to strike and destroy its victim."

This means that is extremely important to choose the timing of when to engage the enemy.

Or the market, in our case.

~ Quick Market update ~

Let’s first take a look at the weekly chart.

We had our third red candle, below 27k and also below the Tenkan line.

This strengthens a little more the idea of short-term weakness. But let's zoom in on the daily.

The last days have been characterized by a lot of indecision.

That red ellipse contains proof of this idea, with a range of up and down candles not strong enough to decide the trend in one sense or another.

The volumes are also decreasing, which… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The Bitcoin halving is the catalyst that attracts many eyes to the crypto world.

Historically, it has always produced a bull run after this event.

Here is my analysis of the Bitcoin cycles, what to potentially expect + a bonus comparison that will surprise you.

1/20🧵👇 1.
~ What is it ~

The Bitcoin halving is nothing but a planned reduction in rewards miners receive.

When Bitcoin launched in 2009, miners were receiving 50 BTC per block.

• 2012 first halving: 25 BTC per block
• 2016: 12.5 BTC per block
• 2020: 6.25
• 2024: 3.12

Artificial Intelligence has been one of the hottest topics since the start of the year.

And many cryptocurrencies have exploded due to this narrative.

Here is my analysis of the A.I. sector, what to expect in the next decade + some tips to not get caught flat-footed.

1/24 🧵👇 1.
~ What is it ~

Artificial intelligence is a branch of computer science that focuses on creating machines that can perform tasks that typically require human intelligence:

• visual perception
• speech recognition
• decision-making
• language translation

Surviving in a bear market could be difficult.

But having experience tips could help you to make the correct choices.

Here are 10 tips that I extracted during my crypto journey that will help you to increase your bear market survival rate.

1/18 🧵👇 1.
~ Improve your TA ~

I wouldn't have made so many mistakes in 2017 with proper knowledge of technical analysis.

While focusing on fundamentals is important, knowing when things are turning bad from a price action point of view is crucial.

It could save your capital.