There has been a lot of focus on the $6trn of cash sitting on the sidelines being able to drive the next phase of this equity bull market…it certainly looks pretty spectacular 1/5 Relative to the size of the US equity market there is nothing unusual about the amount of cash on the sidelines - for either institutions or private investors 2/5

It was great to see that Simon White at @bloomberg @markets used this chart yesterday, linking the yield curve and the VIX... It was one of the first charts that @David_Bowers55 and I built together when we launched @asr_london back in 2006/7 1/5 This is what the yield curve vs VIX chart looked like back in 2007. It was signalling that the VIX would likely rise dramatically - and by the middle of the year this process had already started to happen - it also signalled that worse was yet to come... 2/5

As a thank you for people's patience while I was away talking to clients, three key charts we flagged to them. Maybe its our lack of imagination, but when we started @asr_london, we never dreamed we would have three macro charts giving signals similar to those seen in 1929! 1/6 2/6 #1 US 10yr Treasury - 3m Treasury Bill Yield Curve It's popular to doubt the usefulness of yield curves, but this is only the forth time in 100 years the Yield Curve has been this inverted: 1980, 1973 and 1929 were the others - they did not end well for US economy or markets

At @asr_london, we believe that you will see another down year for US (and Global) Equities in 2023. Two down years in a row are unusual (outside world wars), but a not unheard of... 1/8 There is no single indicator that has predicted multi-year down markets... apart from World War... but rapidly rising inflation or policy rates have played a role... 2/8