Hard to overstate how big of a deal this is for $BKTI

accesswire.com/800977/bk-tech… The word 'transformational' almost doesn't cut it. The transaction allows BK to focus on what they do best, engineering, and transfers the capital / labor intensive functions to an expert who is now a significant shareholder

This transaction transforms GFP

- Exclusively in Ontario, most valuable fiber basket
- Lowers overall cost to produce
- Focuses our capex on our low cost mills
- We have significantly more capital than we need go forward

businesswire.com/news/home/2022… Would note the price we sold these mills for is essentially the same as we paid for all six mills in 2021, and these are our highest cost mills (by a lot)

Private market values are well above current public market prices

The Story of Zales

This is my account of the story at Zale Corporation from the fall of 2007 to the spring of 2011. This is my memory of the events that at least in part define the investor I am today. This is a complete discussion, at least from a financial perspective. This was a very difficult time in my life, which I will get into. This was also a very difficult time in others lives that were involved. That I will not get into.
This is my personal journal. I’m sharing it for two reasons.

I don't have a lot of them, but here is my favorite Michael Price story

Summer of 2003 I'm an intern at MFP. I've been there maybe a month and Michael asks me to go to an IPO lunch for him He calls me into his office and says "Mike, I want you to go to this IPO lunch at the 21 club. Its an IPO of this new REIT thats going to own commercial office space leased to banks"

If you were all knowing and could precisely predict a businesses cash flows from now until the end of time you wouldn't put any weight on the quality of that business

So why do people care? Because cash flows are not predictable and quality offers downside protection*** BUT, there are plenty of things that can erode that downside protection

- overpaying (see KHC)
- competition
- regulation
- mismanagement
- technological / societal shifts

@ElliotTurn has the thread of the day going (could end up begin thread of the year) on selling discipline

I'm no genius and if we're all being honest with ourselves I'm probably an average analyst / investor (ok maybe below average)

But I think about this topic a lot And for me, there are two reasons to sell (neither are easy btw)

1) when your thesis changes
2) when the stock overshoots your (conservative / rational) estimate of fair value

The *key* imo is that these two things have to be mapped out BEFORE you buy

OK - totally out of $QRTEA as of this morning at roughly $6

What changed? I have two strong signals that my thesis is wrong
- The business deteriorated through December (materially), that isn't supposed to happen
- My strong guess is capital returns will be put on hold Stock is certainly cheap here (as it was yesterday and the day before and the day before), but that wasn't the thesis

The thesis was that the business is stable and that we're going to get all of our capital back within 3 years (+/-)

How I got a job in research at an investment bank as an outsider from a less than non-target school with zero experience (1/n) First, I identified someone in the industry who was in a position to give me a chance and I made it my job to get him to like me (Michael Price gave me a 3 month internship in the summer of 2003)

This was my foot in the door (2/n)

Debt levels, valuations, the health of the US consumer, growth vs value factors, and the direction of the market

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this and I’m finally ready to offer up a roadmap of where we’re going from here

A thread (1/n) It’s possible there will be a rotation and the market will react favorably before pulling back. It’s impossible of course to rule out that current winners don’t sustain momentum pushing new highs until the eventual correction brings us lower (2/n)

There is an absolute legend on twitter

Someone I follow (incidentally doesn't follow me but who's counting) who never really posts

A few years back this person made a somewhat large bet on a micro cap Shares were trading weak on some news this person figured wasn't that bad

He bought over a million shares for a little under a dollar (he is a hitter)

Today those shares are trading close to $60

It is my understand he hasn't sold a share

I've been asked more than a few times about the "normal" price of lumber and how to think about valuation. That really is the key question. Here's how I'm thinking about it

https://twitter.com/IgnoreNarrative/status/1382665576322113536

First, and I cannot stress this enough

I HAVE NO IDEA

I've been spending a lot of time thinking about this $ICLTF deal (obviously)

Main line of thinking has been an attempt to figure what this asset looks like at different lumber prices

To that end I've run some numbers 👇

They are very rough - will update as new info hits This is just reverse engineering what we know so far

First, the historical financials plus the numbers management was underwriting

* utilization assumption a guess
* to calc net I assume C$20m of D&A & 5% on the term, implies 38% tax rate

Rights Offerings

A (very) basic thread on how they work and why they are used

And apologies in advance, this thread is really long so its coming in two parts

(1/x) So you have stock in a company that just announced a rights offering. What do you do?

First, lets understand what they are

According to Greenblatt :

A rights offering is most commonly used when a company seeks to raise capital. Usually rights are distributed to owners.

(2/x)

ITS HAPPENING

$ICLTF deck has dropped

gffp.ca/wp-content/upl… Take a look at this 👇

OK folks, here we go

GFP entering the big leagues buying mills from RYAM
- capacity from 150 to 905mmbf

Looks like a good price
- 3.4x 2020 ebitda (which was just 80% utilized)
- $185 per 000 bf (replacement closer to $600)

https://twitter.com/IgnoreNarrative/status/1381598329709199361

Sounds like there is room to improve the mills
- 80% utilization is very low
- release mentions lowering cash costs and increasing capacity further

Financing
- $120m sr debt (2x 2020 ebitda)
- seller taking stock
- rights offering for the balance (Senvest backstop)

Thoughts on writing puts

Was asked about this by @WealthRemedy and figured I share my view with everyone. Sorry if I misjudged public interest in this.

For those that care about my opinion on the topic, read on

(1/n) 1) I think most people shouldn't write *uncovered* calls or puts, but there are rare circumstances where it can make a ton of sense

2) Covered calls / puts can make a lot of sense depending on the situation (I hardly ever do it but I understand why someone would)

(2/n)

Thread on $ICLTF (TSXV: ICL, OTCBB: ICLTF), Itasca Capital soon to be renamed GreenFirst

drive.google.com/file/d/1XDC07O…

Thread could get long so I've linked to a PDF in case thats easier. I'll probably add to this thread over time.

Disclosure: I own a bunch

1/n TL:DR

ICL was a pile of cash run by @kcerminara . They bought a lumber mill in Canada out of bankruptcy. Price paid looks really attractive. Two secular changes making CA lumber mills look like decent assets. Two very legit outsiders wrote a $5m check to get involved...

2/n