I have prepared a small bedtime story about a thought experiment for what kind of talent distribution you ought to expect among players in an "apex" sporting league. (It is a bedtime story because it is heavily simplified and relies primarily on the pictures.) For argument's sake let's use the nhl as our "apex" league, but there's no data here, only expectations. I have been thinking about this for the sake of setting priors for my models, so I want something "pre-data".