Croaky Caiman 🐊🇺🇸 Profile picture
Nature’s humble janitor cleaning up the political mess. Deep-dive analysis on politics & Federalism #NewFederalist https://t.co/CNRbZ4ZePC
Apr 12 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Since @FmrRepMattGaetz will just ignore my requests to get on a Space, even though he really wanted access on the Space's @reeseonable and I would do last year I'll just make this a thread🧵👇🏾 :

They’ve gone from calling it taxpayer theft to calling it money laundering through nonprofits.

The problem? They still don’t have a single law, a single charge, or a single shred of proof that anything illegal happened. 1/ In September 2024, Centene settled a longstanding dispute with the State of Florida.

They agreed to pay:
✅ $57.25M directly to the state
✅ $10M to the Hope Florida Foundation—as a voluntary donation
All signed off by AHCA & the Florida AG’s office.
Apr 10 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Someone made millions betting on a stock market rebound minutes before Trump paused tariffs.

SPY call volume surged 10x
QQQ calls up 2,100%
Announcement hit shortly after
This isn’t trading. It’s transmission

Here’s what happened a thread🧵 ⬇️ 2/ At 1:00 PM ET on April 9, Trump’s team announced a 90-day pause on tariffs.
Markets instantly soared:

S&P 500 up 9%
Nasdaq up 12%
Call options printed wealth like a Vegas slot machine
But some people got in early. A little too early 👀

croakycaiman.substack.com/p/the-call-hea…Image
Apr 5 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
🧠 Victor Davis Hanson’s Argument Sounds Plausible… Until You Understand Trade Math
He claims:

“We're just matching other countries’ tariffs. It's reciprocal. So what’s the big deal?”

But here's what he's not telling you—and what I've been trying to point out in these articles lately. Here's a thread 🧵⬇️ 1. Trump’s Tariff Logic Isn’t Reciprocal—It’s Mathematically False
What Trump calls a “90% tariff” isn’t a tariff at all.
It’s trade imbalance misrepresented as tax policy.

The formula his team used is literally:
🇺🇸 U.S. trade deficit with country ÷ 🇺🇸 U.S. imports from that country = “Tariff equivalent”
It’s just bad math. It’s like saying you’re taxed 90% at a store because you buy $100 of goods and they don’t buy $90 back from you.

Hanson’s argument assumes that number is meaningful.
It isn’t.
x.com/InstaGator2024…
Feb 1 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Here’s the TRUMP Act—not the bill itself, but the PR script being handed out to influencers to astroturf fake support for a weak immigration bill.

They know it’s bad. That’s why they’re paying people to pretend it’s strong. Let’s break it down.

Remember every accusation is an admission from these people 🧵🔽Image 2/ The TRUMP Act is a performative bill designed to look tough on immigration while actually weakening enforcement.

They rerouted ICE cooperation through the Ag Commissioner—deliberately making enforcement harder. But notice what’s missing from this PR script?

They don’t mention that.
Aug 29, 2024 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
I decided to use AI me make a story to help out the Trumpers that don’t like me using “big words.” Hopefully it’s at their reading level to help them understand my point of view.

A Thread 🧵

Croaky and the Passing Storm Image In the heart of the Everglades, where the waters ran deep and the cypress trees stood tall, lived Croaky, a curious little gator. Croaky wasn’t just any gator; he had a heart full of questions and a mind that never stopped thinking. He loved exploring the swamp, not just for food or fun, but to understand the world around him.Image