Arrow Intel Profile picture
Ph.D. student studying world politics at @UniWarszawski. Currently residing in Kyiv. All opinions are my own.
Nov 10, 2022 15 tweets 4 min read
I am getting reports that Ukrainian army has advanced towards Kherson faster than Russian generals have anticipated.

Now remaining Russian troops are desperately trying to swim across the river leaving all of the equipment behind. This is not a joke by the way.

We might see a lot of Russian casualties tomorrow.
Nov 9, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Kherson front update:

Multiple reports by Russian journalists of a complete military withdrawal from the Dnipro river right bank.

Take those reports with a huge grain of salt. Such fake rumors were spread multiple times before. Image Ukrainian soldiers in Kalynivske. There were reports of it being under Ukrainian control for over a month, though. Image
Oct 2, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Meanwhile, Ukrainian army has advanced 25km deep into Russian lines in the northern Kherson region. The largest advance in the region since the war began.

Ukrainian forces consist of at least 4 motorized and 1 tank battalions.

Russian war experts are in "a little" panic. Apologies, it's almost 30km deep in under 2 days. Information was relevant around 6-12 hours ago and Ukr forces most likely advanced further.

The main axis of advance is downstream of Dnipro river. There are fortified Russian positions to the west, but they are in trouble now.
Sep 10, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Found perhaps the most complete and insightful description of the situation as of now from the Russian war journalist.

Translation:
"So, things are extremely shitty, the reserves that were thrown from near Lysichansk and Donetsk did not reach Kupyansk and were..." 1/🧵 Image " completely ruined by the Ukrops. The fuck does not end there: the city of Izyum was surrendered today at 6 am, Kupyansk was surrendered yesterday, Liman is almost surrendered. Our entire Kharkov grouping is broken, there are no reserves." 2/🧵
Jul 11, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Newly delivered HIMARS allows Ukraine to destroy operational-level Russian infrastructure 84km deep into enemy territory.

However, it is not enough to stop Russian advances. It will set them back a month or two and force them to reroute logistics, but nothing game-changing. Image On the other hand, ATACMS rockets will allow Ukraine to destroy STRATEGIC Russian infrastructures like the Crimean bridge or Sevastopol naval base 300km away from the frontlines, which will halt Russian advance permanently.

If Ukraine will receive ATACMS, it's game over. Image
Apr 26, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Russia attacked an important bridge across Dniester Lyman in Odessa region with Kalibr rockets.

Bridge is currently closed, forcing people to make a 100km detour to reach southern part of the Odessa region.

It also provided half of railway traffic between Ukr and Moldova. Hmm, yeah, that's pretty bad damage.

However, if no support structure is damaged, we might see temporary fix within next week or two.

Otherwise bridge is out of commission for at least a year.
Apr 13, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
Ukrainian sources report that the Russian rocket cruiser Moskva has been hit with Neptune rockets and has sunk.

No visual proof yet, but if true, will be a huge blow to the Russian navy. That is a large ship with over 500 people onboard. Largest Russian ship in the Black sea. Extra details: apparently it was hit by 2 Neptune rockets, but since that ship is so large, it didn't sink yet. It is on fire and requires "tactical flooding" to fight the fire.

We should be able to see proof of the damage in the coming days as the ship gets back to the port.
Apr 12, 2022 5 tweets 4 min read
Not great news coming from Mariupol.

Based on pro-Russian reports, most of the 36th brigade has surrendered after an unsuccessful attempt at breaking the siege. 1,200 soldiers POW.

This means that the northern front of Mariupol was captured, but Azovsteel still stands. I doubt the alleged "1,200 soldiers" number, but there indeed was an attempt to break the siege, and at least 100 soldiers have been taken as POWs.

There is a chance that the rest of the brigade returned back to their positions, but need more info to know for sure.
Apr 3, 2022 14 tweets 9 min read
🧵A thread/rant about #BuchaMassacre and why ordinary Russians vote for Putin and don't mind commiting war crimes.

Things are a bit complicated, so we need to dive into Russian culture and society to understand it.

I promise you, the ride will be worth it. A lot of foreigners who never had to deal with Russia or Russians hold stereotypical view of "vodka and bears" that was created as a cold war propaganda and doesn't have anything to do with modern realities.

The reality is both better and worse.
Mar 14, 2022 16 tweets 5 min read
🧵Long-ish thread about humanitarian disaster that is slowly, but surely approaching Ukraine:

So far only Mariupol experienced true horrors of total war, with thousands of civilians dying, compared to only hundreds of soldiers KIA there. But things might start to change soon. While first week gave us hope that Russian army won't start brutally and indiscriminately destroying civilian population and infrastructure, things quickly turned sour, with bridges, TV towers, pipes and electric grid getting bombarded in all Ukrainian cities, one by one.