Trading can make you filthy rich.

However, 99% of traders do it poorly.

Here’s an example of a trade idea framework to 10x your earning potential today 🧵☕️ 1. Most traders start their day starting at charts, hoping to find the "Perfect setup".

But, without a proper bias and system, you're trading in the dark my friend

I'll give you a report I used to come up with part of my bias for this short trade idea in $XLY cyclical stocks this week

And it starts with this picture below, I want you to notice two things:

1. Consumer confidence is plummeting
2. Capacity utilization is at recessionary levels

That tells you something, and it's that there's no spending from either the consumer nor the business side of things

No bueno for $SPY $QQQ, who seem to be held up only by $NVDA earnings hopes ⬇️

🏘️Signs the housing market is cracking—right now:

Home prices vs. incomes? Highest ever

Mortgage rates? Still suffocating buyers

Supply? About to surge as vacancies rise

Builders? Pulling back fast

Smart money? Already moving before you notice

You think the music is still playing—but the dance floor is already empty

Here's what to watch, and what to do about it 🧵☕️ 1. Prices are still 30% higher than pre-COVID days

Which is crazy considering that $SPY $QQQ and most large cap names are also at obscene highs

Yet there's not much to show for them in terms of GDP and other macro data

But, here's what matters

Incomes have fallen largely behind the rise in home prices, making them further debts (not assets), a worse situation than the financial crisis

Sure, there's no fraud that we know of going on today, but that doesn't mean this obscene amount of leverage is not dangerous

All things must come back to norm 📉

I think veganism is the worst thing you can do for your body

But, as a trader I must admit $BYND looks sort of okay for a buy

The reason is, PPI data came out hot yesterday, with eggs being the clear outlier

So look, everyone's concerned about the $MCD $TSN $WMT margins etc

We actually found a way to benefit from the whole thing, with two stocks being potential buys here 🧵☕️ 1. As you may know, the $SPY $QQQ rotation is starting to take place

Out of $XLK large tech into $XLI $XLB $XLE names, and this PPI improvement shows it along with PMI new order readings

But, eggs are a different story

I mean look at that chart, there is a supply issue obviously which has only been exacerbated by a new poultry influenza breakout

So expect this to last a couple more quarters 📈

You saw our call last night for a 0.6% to 1.0% decline in the $SPX $SPY ahead of a hot CPI reading

Then, you saw our call to buy the dip at $6022 on $ES before the market open

Right after a 30 point rally, we decided to leave the trade and leave another 20 points on the table before the market reversed

No, it's not charting, it's global macro and some volume analysis

The same ones I learned to use when at Goldman Sachs

And I'm bringing it to you, right here 🧵☕️ 1. Yesterday, as you would've read from Monday's newsletter, a few things aligned

Some of which we also broke down in our market recaps, such as:

- $XLP defensives outperforming $XLY for the day, and $SPY $QQQ having bad breadth

- $TLT $DXY spreads did not converge, which is inflationary in this case, no chance CPI would've been good for stocks

- $IVE / $IVW spreads (value vs growth) also reached cyclical low extremes, leaving us with a similar conclusion here

- PMI data brought us into this $XLK rotation into $XLI $XLB as well

But, ultimately, it was all about the volatility as far as timing goes 👀

You might have missed the $GS $C $JPM price action last week

If you did, here's what it means for $IWM $SPY $QQQ equities moving forward

Especially as the rotation theme out of $XLK big tech down into $XLI $XLB

Let's break it down to the price action and narrative level to make it all make sense 🧵☕️ 1. Last week, banking stocks like $C $GS $JPM rose to lead the week in $XLF

Now this matters for a couple of reasons, and one is that banking stocks always do well when the underlying economic view is bullish

The second is that both the $XLY $XLP are set to do well in the coming months considering that both commercials and investment banks are doing well

With falling $TLT bond yields and a convergence to $DXY, I think that a move to small caps might be called for here

That's also if the implications from this banking price action plays out as well

But get this, institutions are already behind this play 👀

I've been waiting since July 2023 for this moment, and finally the market is going to let me write about it

You see, my view on $SPY $QQQ had turned slightly neutral back then, and slowly more and more bearish

But get this

Bought every dip, and still kept a net long in $XLK names like $GOOGL $TSLA $AAPL $AMZN

That changes today though

Here's why I see a lot of tail risk ready to break out in the market, and how you can time it through $DXY $TLT as well as $IVE / $IVW spreads

Plus, a clear opportunity to buy in two sectors

Let's break it down 🧵☕️ 1. The two economic reports responsible for 85% of our trade ideas are:

- Services PMI
- Manufacturing PMI

And did you know that manufacturing had been in a 28-month contraction up until last month?

Yet, services carried on along with inflation, pushing GDP into continued expansion

No reason to panic and cut $SPY $QQQ in the middle of its run, $TLT wasn't even a thought either

However, that all flipped on its head 👀

I watched portfolio managers and asset managers come up with ideas at Goldman Sachs hundreds of times

Needless to say, I picked up on their process to come up with winning trade ideas

Today, I want to share one of my own, a pick outside of the $SPY $QQQ darlings like $AAPL and $NVDA

One that is going to spike on Trump tariffs inside the $XLI $XLB sector

This one is $TX, a Brazilian steelmaker in the overly discounted $EWZ

Let's break it down 🧵☕️ 1. The first step in this process of global macro strategies is to go through the "Top-Down" approach

For which we use tons of data, so don't worry, we got you covered

Primarily, the PMI indexes are responsible for 85% of our trade ideas, and if you read our newsletter on Wednesday, then you'd know this:

- $DXY dollar is set to decline along with a $TLT rally
- $SPY $QQQ are set to rotate outside of $XLK big tech and into $IVE value names

Where is value? The $IVE / $IVW spreads suggest it'll be in manufacturing stocks

So we drilled back to $XLI $XLB in primary metals as the breakout led us there 👀

You might be wondering what's behind the $TLT spike today

And while there are many reasons, I want you to focus on something that is very recent and just as important

It's not a chart pattern or breakout, it's actually the complete opposite of technical analysis

Here's why bonds are rallying, $DXY falling, and $SPY $QQQ are set for massive volatility ahead 🧵☕️ 1. On Monday morning, the manufacturing PMI data came out, and needless to say it was a surprise

This was the first expansion in $XLE $XLI names in over 28 months, but that's something we warned you about a month ago in our YouTube channel

It's not just the breakout, but how it broke out, as there will be key industries and stocks to watch in the coming months for massive upside

But more on that later, first, I want you to understand why manufacturing is breaking out. 📈

If you're a trader, you're going to love this setup

It might actually not be for you though, if charts and patterns is what you're used to

This setup in shares of $CLF has to do with where $DXY spreads to $TLT bonds are right now, and how the latest PMI data points to a coming $XLI $XLE breakout soon

There's an easy 65% upside rally here, which can cushion the $SPY $QQQ Trump tariff volatility that's coming

Let's break it down 🧵☕️ 1. Yesterday, we saw the first manufacturing expansion in over 28 months, with new orders flying to 55% on the index

We've warned in our newsletter that this might be a sign industries are adjusting to the lower $DXY dollar regime to come

But

That won't happen until $TLT bond yields are where they need to be

That's fine though, it'll give us more time to accumulate a decent holding in the industries that pushed the most growth:

- Primary metals $XLI
- Petroleum $XLE

That leads us to... 👀

Here's my non-expert truth about tariffs

You see it in this morning's PMI data, and how $CL $USO crude oil outperformed $GC $GLD gold last night on the tariff opening

With this, a few things become clear for the $SPY $QQQ large caps and $IWM small caps

Tariffs will be good, maybe not in the short-term reaction, but definitely in the next 3-6 months

Here's the fundamental & price action take as to why I believe this 🧵☕️ 1. So look, it isn't like the market wasn't aware of these tariffs in the first place

The $USDCAD rate had been shifting since October 2024 to run ahead of these developments

On that note, I think that the $SPY $QQQ is pricing in the wrong narrative right now, only because these indexes are made up of mostly $NVDA and other $XLK large cap tech

The true essence can be seen in $IWM small caps

Let me explain... ⬇️

There are three main themes markets are watching in the $SPY $QQQ equity market right now

Which will make the average investor draw down 8-12% from today's levels

Now most people think this is because of the $NVDA selloff and DeepSeek going after $XLK big tech

But it turns out, it has nothing to do with that. A broader indicator today in $IVE / $IVW spreads is signaling something big

Here's why you should hedge today 🧵☕️ 1. What you're looking at here is the $IVE / $IVW spread (value vs growth)

Keep the following in mind:

- When Value outperforms Growth, the economic view is pretty pessimistic, and so it brings assets like $USO $CL crude oil lower

- When Growth outperforms Value, the opposite is true, and that's when areas like $IWM small caps and $GLD $GC gold take off

Today, we're at early 2022 lows, the point where $SPY $QQQ equities topped as fears of recession kicked in 📉

Imagine waking up and $BTC Bitcoin is $250,000

Unfortunately, that day is going to take a little longer than expected, but we're not just going to give you a half attempt at a Bitcoin chart

No sir, not even $SPY $QQQ $IWM equity charts or none of the $TLT bond yield effect

We're zooming out and showing you why InvestiBrew is worth a follow (and newsletter subscription)

Here's actually why Bitcoin might have topped for the time being 🧵☕️: 1. Just like in any other asset class, like $XLRE real estate or $SPY $QQQ $IMW stocks

Sentiment matters, but it matters more for $BTC Bitcoin

Since the main premise of price action is dependent on people willing to pay more than the previous guy

So, we are taking the current positioning of $COIN in the $AAPL App Store, to see how this recent Bitcoin rally has ranked

But before I show you that, let me remind you that you can still download a free Excel & PDF guide in our bio to generate pro-level trade ideas

Would have saved you from the $NVDA DeepSeek debacle yesterday

Anyway, let's get back to Bitcoin 🪙

Give me 10 minutes

And I will show you why this DeepSeek $NVDA $QQQ selloff is not the reason why markets are red

I know what it's like to wake up to a big gap in the market, but there's a way to prepare yourself before it even comes

And no, it's not $SPY $SPX technical analysis

Here's what to watch to days like this don't catch you off guard again 🧵☕️ 1. Today's $NVDA DeepSeek selloff was a sort of Black Swan event

But

We warned you last week there would be some sort of exogenous catalyst coming to bring $SPY $QQQ $IWM equity volatility higher

The first of which was our PMI breakdown, and there's actually a 37 minute YouTube video about it

You can also grab a free Excel model & PDF guide to go along

Anyway, it was obvious from this report that we should be wary of $ES and bullish on $TLT bonds as they were looking to converge with $DXY dollar

See exports breakout as reference:

Did you know that Goldman Sachs traders make money 97% of the time?

No, it's not clickbait, they really do. But that's something we can break down further in tonight's YouTube video

For now, I want to show you a simple yet powerful tool that these guys use to time their entries and exits around trades

It's the one I showed you when calling the recent $TLT bond rally from $85, and the one that would have gotten you into $NFLX pre-earnings

By the way, it also works on $DXY dollar, $SPY $QQQ $IWM indexes and more

Come break it down 🧵☕️ 1. You all should be familiar with this image, it's the volatility index $VIX

Derived from $SPY $SPX option pricings and implied volatility measures for the next 12 months, it's what drives most of the systematic rotations in the market

However

Each asset class carries its own version of a VIX, with a slight twist

It's not made from $DXY or $TLT options, it's purely statistical

And it's how professional traders time their execution (along with order flow analysis, but you can check @TicTocTick for that) 👀

1.27 billion tons in 2025

That's how much iron ore China is looking to import from Brazil, and it's no coincidence that Lula is back in power now

While you're focused on what the $SPY $QQQ $IWM US equities do on Trump's first week, a few weirdos have found a 100% upside opportunity

All inside the closed-door dealings between $MCHI and $EWZ, and no it's not $BABA, though that's another easy double

Today's double actually comes from $VALE

Come break the deal down 🧵☕️ 1. In 2022, this was one of the deals that I posted on my LinkedIn and actually went viral

Got the stock from $12 a share to nearly $20, and always kept an eye on it since

Now the stock has actually gone below this $12-mark, trading at only 60% of its 52-week high to give me high hopes of a new run

However

There are a few factors that need to be in place for that to happen, so let's go over them 👀

The amount of leverage in the $SPY $QQQ $IWM equity market insane, record high levels according to $IBKR

But get this, this leverage is actually centered around one single player today, and it's not the banks or prime brokers

It's the retail trader, and while everyone is excited about the Trump rally and a new all-time high on equities

Others are starting to pull back in preparation of a rug pull

Come with us to find out what to exit, and what to start buying right now

A 🧵☕️ 1. You guys may have seen this picture a few days ago, it went viral

And it shows the cost of leverage in $SPY $IWM $QQQ equities today, as well as other products

It's collapsing due to the decreasing demand right now, as a lot of capital has started to systematically leave the market in recent days

And we can tell you exactly who is starting to deleverage ahead of a potential selloff 👀

What happens when a stock's price runs up ahead of earnings?

Most people think that it is a sign that the stock will report good earnings and then continue to rally

But it turns out, this is where 90% of traders miss out on making significant profits down the line

Today we want to show you our short thesis on $UAL stock as the $AAL $DAL earnings season for airlines kicks off

And why we think that most of the good news is already priced into the stock today, leaving it with some downside potential

A 🧵☕️ 1. When a stock runs hot ahead of earnings, such as $UAL has done now that it trades at its 52-week high

It could signal that the stock has already priced in all the good news for the previous months, here's why we think that's the case in United stock today:

- The rally happened during the holiday season, which reported record TSA daily traveler numbers

- This also happened when $USO $OIL crude oil prices were trading at the low $70s range

- We've seen a decline in TSA numbers for January, as well as weaker retail sales numbers despite it being a holiday month report

With this in mind, while we expect United to report a good quarter, as $DAL did and likely as $AAL will

The guidance for next quarter, or management commentary cannot be lenient to this momentum keeping up the pace 📉

Your cash balance

Will never be as big as Warren Buffett's, especially not now that he's gone into 25% cash for $BRK.B, by the way that's the highest since 2004

There are many reasons for him to do this, but what nobody is telling you is that he sees the same $SPY $QQQ $IWM equity tail risks that he's seen every time he goes to cash

It goes hand in hand with the newsletters we've been sending you, how $DXY dollar needs to sell off and trigger the $XLE $XLI rally along with $TLT $TNX bonds

Come find out why he's selling $AAPL and other names 🧵☕️ 1. Let's start with the man's thinking

Buffett is known to be a creature of habit, never stepping outside of his tried and tested methods

So back in 1999, he said that there would be a lost decade in $SPY $QQQ $IWM equities, based on a couple of factors

More on those later

What you need to know is that these factors, which were present in 1999-2004 are back with twice the intensity

Hence his record cash position 💵

Mercedes Benz

Has become the epitome of car repossessions in 2024, along with BMW and Dodge of course

Car payments are through the roof, and we don't see this changing any time soon, so more people will be holding on to their used cars

This gives us a near perfect setup in $AAP stock, one that is near the top of the $XLY retail sales data for the year

While most focus on $CVNA, $KMX, $CARG and $ORLY, we found the near perfect setup in Advance Auto parts

Come find out why Wall Street agrees 🧵☕️ 1. Even though credit markets and profiles for consumers have improved, according to the recent $GS and $BAC quarterly earnings figures

We see that car payments, and repossessions are up more than 25% on the year, so there's the pain point for most Americans along with credit cards

This will set up used car dealers, and owners, to look for parts dealers in bulk, such as $AAP, to help them restore and upkeep used cars

As you will see in just a minute, there is a reason why institutions are accumulating this stock right now, and the thesis seems to be sticking up so far 👀

Today's CPI isn't just news - It's the latest domino to fall and trigger a MASSIVE bond rally you can't miss

I want to walk you through how the $TLT $TNX bond setups next to $DXY dollar, $GLD $GDX gold, even $OIL $USO crude oil all point to one thing

The only outcome here is a bond rally, as all our newsletter subscribers would agree on

After you read this thread, you too will want to end up buying bonds 🧵☕️ 1. Let's recap what just happened this morning

CPI came out cooler, but inflation is still above 3%, so a lot of you out there call for a $TLT $TNX bond selloff due to this "higher for longer" norm

Well, here's why you'd be wrong:

Inflation is actually coming from one sector, and that is services as you'd know from our newsletter PMI breakdowns

More than that, the price inflation in services is coming from two main sources

1. Shelter (rent)
2. Insurance

That's not real inflation, that's a cyclical bubble based on elevated $SPY $QQQ valuations and $XLRE asset prices

We have no inflation, just sustained high prices after the 2020-2023 leveraging cycle 📉

What no one is telling you about the behind the scenes of $SPY $QQQ

Particularly with last week's NFP report, followed by today's weak (if not recessionary) PPI

It's all a big rigged market right now, and we think that despite $XLI $XLE calling for a $DXY dollar selloff, nothing will happen until Trump is in office

They want to bid Biden farewell with a "strong" economy and market

Yet, today's thread will show you otherwise

Let's break it down 🧵☕️ 1. I want to bring you back to August 2024

This date is significant because it's what revealed just how bad the economy actually is right now

It was the month that the NFP was revised lower by 818,000 jobs

This should get you thinking about a couple of things…

Such as: Were they trying to make the economy seem stronger than it actually was, to give the election a different sway?

What about the Fed, were they trying to bully the fed into cutting rates early to bail out some of the failing regional banks?

Or: If they are willing to lie that much, are they still doing it?

The answer rhymes with misleading markets, or in other words, fraud ❌