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Isaac Florence Profile picture
Isaac Florence
@IsaacATFlorence
Field epidemiology plus data & software engineering @UKHSA. Tweeting on epi, code, and global health.
Jan 31, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
*The Episodes Thread 🧵*

@UKHSA is changing the Covid-19 case definition today, meaning our published figures are changing too. Here is a run down of the key points on the changes, what they mean for those interpreting them, and some other bits
1/
 coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-… If you only take three points from this thread, they should be:
1) The case definition is moving from person-level to episode of infection-level
2) This affects surveillance processes & outputs, increasing the case numbers
3) Subsequent episodes are a proxy for reinfections
2/
Jan 31, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
*Episodes Case Definition change - pt 1*

Whilst we’re eagerly awaiting the dashboard to publish the data, I thought I’d write a little precursor thread just on the teams that made the upcoming changes possible.
1/ First & foremost, the team behind the Second-Generation Surveillance System. Massively dependable, patient, & good humoured in the face of massive pressure. Responsible for collecting *all* laboratory positive test results + negatives for Covid. Nothing short of Herculean.
2/
Jun 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is unfortunately not the correct interpretation of this data, @DFisman

Common exposures are not evidence of transmission

Common exposures are where cases have been before in the 2-7 days before their symptom onset, but this doesn’t mean this is where they caught Covid. 1/2 This means places people visit a lot form the biggest proportions of all common exposures, so when cases are high amongst young people, schools will appear more in common exposures (because that’s where young people go more often!). 2/2
Jun 4, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Although Twitter doesn’t need another thread of individual thoughts on the latest PHE variant technical briefing, as half the team behind the new outbreaks and clusters data, I feel it’s important to highlight a few things about this data which are missed in discourse here 1/ Data from the Case and Incident Management System (CIMS) is hugely biased towards Health Protection Team (HPT) prioritisation. During Covid this means what data is captured there varies through time and by region ... 2/