Director, Global Risk at Federation of American Scientists, @scientistsorg, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Host of "We’re All Going to Die" Radio, CNAS Adjunct
Oct 2 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
It is tempting to urge Israel to go after Iran's nuclear program, but a few key realities should temper that temptation. 1/1) Iran is within weeks of producing enough material for a bomb. It might be able to produce one quickly once the uranium is enriched. If Iran targets Iran's nuclear facilities, it better not miss. Certainty will be hard to achieve via bombings alone. 2/
Jun 19 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
A Tale of Two Avoidable Nuclear Tragedies - a 🧵 on #NorthKorea and #Iran
Two major news stories today have me thinking of how US diplomacy worked to prevent or delay nuclear confrontations, and domestic politics led by increasingly assertive and populist leaders turned those wins into losses now threatening US power and global stability. 1/
Mar 25, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A further sign of Russian weakness in my view. Does not change the military dynamic in Ukraine or in Europe. But another effort by Putin to use his nukes without using them.
Any actual use of nuclear weapons would risk larger escalation none could control. And this may take months to do, if it ever happens. Best NATO approach is keep with its strategy, enable Ukraine to win conventionally and make clear Putin loses even if he tries to use nukes.
Mar 23, 2023 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Building off of yesterday's commentary about a new report from @Livermore_Lab on the challenges posed by China's increasing nuclear capabilities, it is clear up front what the study group members are aiming at. cgsr.llnl.gov/content/assets… 1/
Page 1 of the executive summary in fact shows the money quote for this perspective - 2/
Feb 10, 2023 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
I am always honored to have my thoughts included in the @PostOpinions Here is my latest. I am always struck by how many practioners today do not remember or never knew this critical piece of history. A 🧵
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
The bottom line up front - Ukraine did not keep any of the 1900+ nuclear weapons left on its territory in 1991 for lots of reasons, but major 1 was US made it our business to ensure that did not come to pass. The #1 US goal in collapse of USSR was that only Russia kept nukes. 1/
