What's new in 🇦🇴 #Angola's economy this week

📈 Oxford Economics projects 2.2% growth in 2024, driven by increased oil production, higher oil revenue, + conditions in oil refining, mining exploration, & renewable energy infrastructures.

Follow the thread🧵 #AngolanEconomy (+) 🔮Our own perspective at BFA is similar; some investments in Blocks 15, 15/06, 17 and the new Begonia field in Block 17/08 should cause a slight uptick in crude production this year. +oil revenue to help in fiscal situation, and gradual improvements in non-oil economy. (+)

🇦🇴 #Angola's economy has been heavily dependent on oil exports, the primary source of its forex.

There's a need for economic diversification and it remains muted; however, we see some green shoots, exports rising

Follow the thread🧵 #AngolanEconomy

(+) According to the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity, Angola's exports indicated the lowest ranking in the World in 2020.

Exports are 99% crude, refined oil, LNG, and diamonds.

(+)

1/10 Last week on the 🇦🇴Angolan economy

🏦Treasury started issuing short-term public debt, totaling AOA 3.5Bn in 364-day Treasury Bills, at a yield of 10.75%, -0.25 pp to the last issue of the same maturity in the end of 2022.

Yield dropped another 0.25pp this week.

#Angola 2/10 📊 In the first auction, the offer stood at AOA 30Bn, with demand at AOA 12.6Bn. The Treasury chose to issue less and bring the yield down, setting th tone for the following issues.

3 and 6 month issues should follow in the coming weeks.

🧵Last week in the economy of #Angola

👨‍🏫👩‍⚕️The unemployment rate dropped 4.1pp in Q3 2022, to a still very high level of 30.0%. Still, the largest drop since the statistical series began, in 2019.

Graph makes it look like decrease not as good as in prev. quarters, but this (+) is because the labour market is seasonal. Unemployment always rose from Q2 to Q3, so a mild decline is good news. In fact, this is the lowest unemployment rate since Q2 2019 (29.0%).

🎓Youth unemployment rate still super high at 54.2% - a drop of 5pp from same quarter 2021. (+)

🇦🇴Last 3 weeks in the Angolan economy (I was on vacations for a week 😅)

1. 📈Q1 economic sentiment improved, rising for the 5th quarter in a row.

Almost all sectors recorded quarterly and year on year increases, with the exception of 🏪Retail (-4 against Q4 2021).

#Angola 🚍Transport sector again showed the largest yoy growth (+37 pts), followed by Tourism (+23pts), consistent with the trend of more relaxed anti-Covid measures in Angola.

Pieces of news reporting more buses have been a constant, by the way.

rna.ao/rna.ao/2022/04…