National Audit Office report published today concludes homelessness in England at its highest level recorded (since 2000).

Identifies risk that expenditure on homelessness and temporary accommodation (TA) may bankrupt councils, as some spend up to half their net budgets on TA. And as above map shows - a much higher share of households are housed in temporary accommodation across certain types of geography, typically larger cities and costal cities in particular.

Why have British sea-fronts gone from Tourism hotspots to Housing Benefit hotspots?

Take Blackpool - along the seafront there are over 6 private rented HB claims for every 10 households (of all tenures), with over £1 in every £3 in rent paid through housing benefit.
🧵⬇️ This isn't constrained to seafronts, we also see disproportionately high private rental housing benefit claims in:

- The centres of post-industrial cities and towns

Almost half a million homes in England are second homes owned by households in England - one home in every fifty.

The number owned as second homes has doubled since 2008-09, according to new data from Government⬇️ Primarily second homes are used as holiday homes or seen as a long-term investment.

Over half of households who have access to a second home live in London and the South East of England.

58% were aged over 55, and almost half (46%) were in the highest income quintile.

You might think benefit levels are based on a logical, objective calculation of the cost of what families need.

You would be wrong - this has never been the case.

Rates are essentially arbitrarily set* and have been eroding in value (including relative to earnings as per graph) *Current benefit levels are the result of a historical sequence of successive rate changes, each based on a range of considerations (previous years rate, inflation, welfare reforms, political assessment of affordability) - but never an objective measure based on need.

£10 billion would buy all 42,000 homes in Rishi Sunak's constituency of Richmond.

The Government spends twice that amount on housing benefit each year - around half to private landlords.

And we argue Govt should spend even more on HB.. At least in the short term. ⬇️ We have a rental affordability crisis in the England (and across the UK).

Recent ONS stats show the largest EVER year-on-year private rental growth on record to December 2022 (series starts 2006).

The share of incomes private renters spend on rents has tripled since 1979.

Why aren’t they getting it?

Our social safety net is there for those unable to work or who fall out of work, and boosts income of those on the lowest earnings.

So why are as many as 41% of working-age adults (2.7m) on the lowest income (bottom 20%) not receiving any support?🧵 Universal Credit and its predecessors (JSA, tax credits) are passporting benefits that grant access to cost-of-living support payments.

It's important people are in receipt of the benefits they're entitled to, to ensure they also receive these vital support packages.

Is the Housing Benefit bill out of control? In 1979 we spent £2.5bn on HB (2019 prices), today we spend £21bn.

Yet new research published today finds that, relative total 'housing costs', the value of all rental subsidies are much lower today than in the past.🧵⬇️ There's a consensus that we have a rental affordability crisis, with rents swallowing up 3x more of renters income than it did in 1979.

New research from @InstituteGC for JRF concludes the erosion of housing subsidies over four decades has been a critical driver of this crisis.

New Census data shows the number of households renting privately doubled in twenty years, while the share who own the home they live in has plummeted.

This huge tenure shift has major implications for the distribution of housing wealth 🧵⬇️ In every region in the UK, the share of households who own their home has fallen substantially, while the numbers who rent privately have more than doubled.

In the North East and East Midlands the numbers renting privately have tripled.

Has the social contract between generations been broken?

A person born in 1956 will on average have have paid £940k in tax during their life, but are forecast to receive state benefits amounting to £1.2m, net £291k. A person born in 1996 will receive less than half that figure, receiving barely more than a person born in 1931 would have!

ONS have published housing census data today 🏘️

Huge potential for lots of interesting analysis (another time!). For now - here’s a quick thread with some data on overcrowding, tenure change, central heating and car use which I found interesting at first glance ⬇️ Overcrowding
Top ten local authorities for over-occupancy are in or around London.

Over a fifth of homes in Newham are over crowded (22%), as are 18% in Barking and Dagenham, 17% in Brent, 16% in tower Hamlets and Slough.

We’ve got used to low interest rates over the last decade, but this week the average mortgage rate jumped to 6%.

Thread of new analysis explaining why 6% mortgage interest rates are VERY scary for family finances, particularly for families on low incomes.
🏠🧵⬇️ New analysis we’ve carried out (above graph) finds that a mortgage interest rate increasing from 2.1% to 6% means a family buying with a mortgage could see their monthly mortgage payments increase:

- From £630 to £1,100 (by £470 / 70%)
- From 19% of monthly income to 28%

What’s driving England’s housing crisis?

In part, it’s because we’re now a country of *multiple* home ownership and private renters.

In the last 20 years the proportion of adults owning multiple homes doubled, the %s of 16-34 y/os buying a home almost halved. 🏘️🧵 Fixing the housing crisis requires not only a focus on new supply of homes, but a focus who owns them.

This is the at the core of the argument in a paper JRF Housing Lead @DarrenBaxter has published today; we need a focus on shifting the distribution of ownership of homes.