Jack Niewold 🫡 Profile picture
Founder of Crypto Pragmatist, an email newsletter on the narratives and assets shaping crypto.
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Nov 29 5 tweets 1 min read
In the same way that Uber’s cheap rides generated adoption, money losers in crypto tend to attract new users.

Examples:

• inflationary yield farms
• AVAX gas fee refunds
• Airdrops
• GMX zero-slippage swaps

But these are advertising expenses, not product features

1/x
Remember the justification for Luna? For Celsius yields?

‘It won’t go on forever—it’s for driving adoption’

But these advertising gimmicks were too good (and had a cost), and hid a sub-par product.

Remember when Anchor cut rates? But just 1%, they couldn’t risk capital flight
Nov 25 14 tweets 4 min read
It's Black Friday: so what cryptos are 'on sale'?

I analyzed the top 100 crypto tokens from exactly one year ago and tracked their performance over the last 365 days.

Only one project has gone up in price.

Here's a breakdown of how the projects have performed: Some disclaimers:

1. This doesn't count any staking rewards, interest, or rebasing.

2. I've removed wrapped tokens, liquid staking derivatives, and stablecoins because it's more fun this way.

Without further ado:
Nov 23 5 tweets 1 min read
1/x

Dani Sesta got one thing right: DeFi needs memes in order for it to be successful--at least until more sophisticated capital comes into the space.

Products like Degenbox (the UST looping strategy) were exciting and accessible to retail.

Add a memecoin and it took off. 'Serious' protocols that need governance token issuance and sophisticated capital to come in when there's no appetite for risk are simply ngmi.

Why would a hedgefund LP your synthetic forex pair when they can just sit in treasuries?

Retail stays, sophisticated capital flees.
Nov 18 26 tweets 7 min read
There is only ONE best way to keep your crypto safe:

SELF-CUSTODY.

Not crypto exchanges, not yield platforms, not FTX, not Celsius.

Today, I'll teach you what self-custody means, how to do it, and why it's so important:

A CRYPTO SECURITY AND SELF-CUSTODY MEGATHREAD: LESSON ONE:

How do crypto wallets work in the first place?

Crypto wallets from a user perspective are actually quite simple.

They have just two parts:

• A public key (used to generate your wallet address)
• A private key (the 'password' for your crypto wallet)
Nov 15 18 tweets 5 min read
BOTTOM SIGNAL ROLL CALL:

Pre 3AC-blowup, I asked a bunch of cryptocurrency OGs about how to detect market bottoms.

They came up with 14 bottom signals—and at that point, we had only seen 4.

Where are we today? Tl;Dr:

10/14 bottom signals hit
Nov 7 23 tweets 7 min read
FTX, the #2 crypto exchange, is experiencing a bank run.

Pushed to the brink by a debt crisis & an announcement from its #1 competitor, ~$1b has bled out from the platform in the last few days.

What happened? Will FTX survive the crunch? Will the rest of crypto dump?

Read on: THE CAST:

• Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF): the CEO of FTX, an 'effective altruist' who has spent much of the last few years getting cozy with lobbyists and politicians in the US

• Chanpeng Zhao (CZ), speculated to be the richest man in crypto, the founder and CEO of Binance Image
Nov 3 13 tweets 6 min read
good signal is hard to come by in the bera

here are 10 (small) accounts that have continued to pump out good alpha despite market conditions: 1. @TheoDelarosa_

Imagine Messari Enterprise but instead of a $10k/mo dashboard, it's a free weekly substack.

If you're gonna read one thing a week to stay up to date on crypto, read this:

theodelarosa.substack.com
Nov 2 17 tweets 7 min read
It’s okay to take the foot off the gas pedal during a crypto bear market; it’s not okay to stop paying attention.

In honor of that, some free alpha.

Here are 9 catalysts/events to keep your eye on in November: 1. ARBITRUM SZN 2.0

Arbitrum Season, after a brief pump in August, might be back.

The L2 has been hinting at an airdrop and the restart of their community program, Arbitrum Odyssey for months now, but for some reason, it finally feels imminent. Image
Oct 17 25 tweets 8 min read
MEV, relays, blockbuilding, Flashbots, Ethereum?

You've read the articles, but it hasn't all clicked yet.

Why?

Because no one has done a good job of explaining it.

How can we best understand MEV and Ethereum?

By following the chain of events of a single transaction: Most of us know how an Ethereum transaction works from a user perspective: you can swap, bid, buy, sell, or do pretty much anything else.

Today, let's look at a token swap transaction: it's one of the simplest, most frequent transactions on the network.

Let's sell ETH for USDC
Oct 17 4 tweets 1 min read
MEV question: if I submit a TX with no priority fee, but its execution would create a lot of MEV, will it likely get found and submitted in a bundle by a searcher? Better way of wording my question.

Asking about mechanics of priority fees getting paid/ how to get a tx included without paying a tip
Oct 13 7 tweets 2 min read
I think people in crypto are way too hard on Layer 1s and big protocols while being wayyyyy to easy on the rest of the crypto ecosystem.

1/x
Ethereum is one of the most technological leaps of the century and and people were complaining about 7-year-old tech taking a while to execute on the roadmap.

Damn, give it a sec guys. Ethereum has to be up there in the fastest growing assets of all time.
Sep 22 19 tweets 6 min read
WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS?

The crypto Youtube reply-bot scammers have made Twitter practically unusable.

But have you ever wondered how the scam they advertise actually takes your money? It's 10x more clever (and more interesting) than it seems.

Here's how it works: Before we get into the scam itself, let's talk about some general rules to protect yourself on Crypto Twitter:

• Don't respond to DMs from people you don't know/big accounts
• Don't give your seed phrase to anyone
• Use a hardware wallet
Sep 15 13 tweets 5 min read
Now that the merge has gone through successfully, it's time to level up your research skills.

One way to do that?

Directly investigating the chain with block explorer Etherscan.

Here are some powerful features on the platform that can help you generate your own alpha: Etherscan is a block explorer: it allows you to explore the depths of the Ethereum chain.

It's not as user-friendly as products like Nansen and DeBanked but it has all of the information they have and more.

Every transaction, contract, and wallet can be examined on Etherscan. Image
Sep 12 14 tweets 4 min read
Crypto is a game of information.

He who controls the information controls the outcome.

Average information = average results

Asymmetric information = outstanding results

Create your own luck. Here are 5 FREE tools that can help you develop an informational edge: 1. Governance Tracking

While governance proposals are public, it often takes an official social media announcement for the price to reflect the change.

Proposals normally happen on:

• Project Forums
• Snapshot

Before they get pushed to social media.
Sep 8 21 tweets 6 min read
WHAT CAN THE EARLY DAYS OF INTERNET TEACH US ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CRYPTO?

Did people see the potential of the internet right away? Or did it take time to find novel use cases?

I interviewed an expert on the early internet era to find out: Ok, I've got something to confess.

The expert? He's my dad. He's well-qualified, though:

• CompSci graduate (1983)
• Worked on the B2 stealth bomber
• Was among the first consumer internet users in the late 80s
• Now retired and lives on a farm
Sep 7 4 tweets 1 min read
Discounting L1s and L2s, I think LIDO has the best chance of attaining a trillion-dollar market cap of any crypto out there Let's say ETH attains a $10T mkt cap and Lido has a 49.99% market share.

Lido charges 10% fee on all staking rewards and we estimate rewards to be 10%.

Lido will earn 50b a year in rev with virtually no costs

P/E of 30 easily takes us to a 1T mkt cap
Sep 6 8 tweets 2 min read
NFTs are lottery tickets. They're altcoins w/ pictures, but they have different mechanics.

People don't buy NFTs to trade in volume at the floor, they buy them cause they want to turn $500 into $500k That's why I don't think sudo-style passive liquidity models will work, it just enables dumping.

Getting dumped on was the whole reason retail stopped playing alts/never really came on chain to trade.

Retail wants zero or infinity, they don't care about if its liquid or not
Aug 29 15 tweets 6 min read
Arbitrum has been popping off recently, and it's not just GMX and DeFi bluechips that have driven adoption.

Today I put out a call for small, underrated projects on Arbitrum.

After some investigation, here are 5 interesting projects on the L2 that I'm excited about: Some background:

Of all of the Layer 2s, I think Arbitrum has the most built-in innovation.

Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of interesting projects (including forks and L1 deployments) on other L2s, but it's undeniable that Arbitrum has a strong lead for now.
Aug 16 15 tweets 4 min read
This thread won't spoonfeed you an altcoin that does a 100x.

This thread will help you become the type of speculator or investor that can FIND a 100x: In the bear market, we return to the fundamentals.

The fundamentals of assets (cash flows, tokenomics, product-market-fit)

And...

The fundamentals of investing: honing the process, actions, disciplines, and emotions of speculating and investing.
Aug 12 14 tweets 5 min read
THE ATTACK ON TORNADO CASH IS AN ATTACK ON DIGITAL FREEDOM

We WILL respond to the injustice of the Tornado Cash arrest/sanctions.

Tools of financial and human liberty must be protected, here are four organizations protecting crypto/privacy that need your help: Tornado Cash is an Ethereum-based tool that allows users to mix and move funds from a 'doxxed' (known) address to a different address without connecting the two, preserving a degree of privacy for the users.

While it has been used by hackers in the past, most activity is legal.
Aug 11 6 tweets 1 min read
SENTIMENT SURVEY:

Three questions to gauge Crypto Twitter's sentiment around current market conditions: Have we bottomed?