Brigham Young University sociology professor Jacob Rugh doesn’t “see the GOP making inroads with voters under age 35 as long as Trump or Trumpism as embodied by more extreme candidates rules the party in the public consciousness.” @KUER
1/
kuer.org/politics-gover… “Only time will tell, but my guess is the effects of these last seven or eight years with the rise of Trump and the years to come will indeed manifest among Gen Z voters for a very long time to come. It won’t just automatically ‘go away’ as they age.”
2/
kuer.org/politics-gover…

Independent challenger @EvanMcMullin beat MAGA Republican incumbent Senator Mike Lee 48.3-47.6 in tri-county Utah Wasatch Front Metro.

🟠Davis: Lee 54-43 (R +11)
🔵Salt Lake: McM 57-19 (I +19)
🔴Utah Co.: Lee 62-35 (R +27)
🟣TOTAL: McM 48.3-47.6 (I +0.7)

(FYI, statewide: R +10) 2/3 of Utah pop. lives here.

2020 PRES
Trump 52-Biden 42 (R +10)

2022 SEN
McMullin 48.3-Lee 47.6 (R +0.7)

🟪2020-22 Swing: I +11 (map by Friday)

Salt Lake City had the highest winning margin (I +63_ and cast the most votes, giving McMullin the foundation for his metro win.

As the election canvass is nearly over @Thorongil16 & I can confirm:

✅McMullin did achieve the HIGH SUPPORT Dems (D +88), Ind. (I +23), and est. 27% of GOP voters (Lee +46, huge defection) needed.

❌Evan McMullin lost historic 2022 Utah Senate race 53-43 (!) due to LOW TURNOUT Latest results: electionresults.utah.gov/elections/fede…

Official turnout by party (you'll have to swap in all registered voters instead of active voters denominator that inflates figures):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
via
utahcounty.gov/dept/clerkaud/…

Voter registration:
vote.utah.gov/current-voter-…

I mourn the mass murder of LGBTQ people in Colorado and send my love to all my LGBTQ students, family, and colleagues everywhere.

I am saddened to learn the shooter was a member of my LDS faith community. I condemn his hateful action and any and all hate directed at my queer brothers and sisters, including words of those of my faith.

Even and especially because we do not have class this week, I want you to know that my classroom and office will always be a safe space.

Hat tip to @Thorongil16 @lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ for collaborating on our exploration of the Senate race in Utah.

The Lee-McMullin contest is the most competitive Utah Senate race in my lifetime.

A McMullin upset is unlikely, but we show 1 scenario (of 3) how it could happen.

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1586101573494931456

While a Lee +8 win (scenario 2) is most likely, McMullin has a narrow path via:
☑️ Anti-Trump/Lee vote in highly educated cities like Provo
☑️ High Dem/Ind turnout, though could still be 7 pts < GOP turmout
☑️ 80%+Dem, 65%+ Indy vote share
☑️ AND >30% GOP vote
A very narrow path

"Lee talks about the Democratic party the way red-baiters used to talk about the Communist party: Any association with it is suspect. It’s true that McMullin courts Democratic voters and donors, along with independent and Republican voters and donors." 1/ thebulwark.com/evan-mcmullin-… "That’s the whole point: McMullin is campaigning on unity."

"...But what’s more dismaying in the smears against McMullin is the moral emptiness of today’s GOP." 2/ thebulwark.com/evan-mcmullin-…

Research by Jacob Rugh, a sociologist at Brigham Young University, has found that the foreclosure crisis depressed voter turnout in the 2012 and 2016 elections among Black voters in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. In Florida, he found that the loss of homes to foreclosure as well as underwater mortgages lowered turnout among Latino Democrats and independents, but not Latino Republicans.

"Recently the Black Student Union at BYU called for all of the buildings at BYU to remove the names of various people from the history of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, many of whom promoted pro-slavery & other racist views." -Don Izekor
sltrib.com/opinion/commen… Don writes this brilliant OpEd "in response to some of the rebuttals I have received about [their] call. The most common of them is the presentism argument. This usually follows the lines of, 'We cannot judge the past by today’s standards.'" -Don Izekor
sltrib.com/opinion/commen…

“Lower home ownership depresses voter turnout and homeownership for Black Americans has been declining for the past 15 years. Clearly this year is going to be a very high turnout election, but having said that, Black Americans will still be uniquely disadvantaged.” (SHORT THREAD)

https://twitter.com/BYU/status/1280910351198859264

According to a new study by Rugh published in Race and Social Problems, Black homeownership has fallen to the lowest level since the 1968 Fair Housing Act. [H]omeownership is strongly tied to voter turnout, even after controlling for other factors.
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

<Thread as promised>
As an infant in 1978, my parents moved with me to Chicago's South Side. For the next 16 yrs, I would be taught, led, & shaped by Black women.

More Black women still guide my life tremendously.

This is dedicated to them and the next generation of Black women My very first Church leader in the children's nursery was a Black woman named Cathy Stokes, a famed Black LDS pioneer who taught me Jingle Bells, which she still tells me I loved to sing in July. Cathy rose to become the 1st Black woman head of the Illinois Dept of Public Health.

The day after the 2016 election was the most difficult day to teach.

I mourned with students of color who had family who had been deported, who had been abused by police. They cried, afraid.

Several white students didn't get it.

In 2020, most get it:
link.medium.com/2pPoq80906 medium.com/@jakerugh/i-as…

Last week our new BYU Latino Civil Rights seminar met Diana Trochez, DACA recipient, @BYULawSchool grad, and immigration attorney practicing law in California, which is one of a very few states to allow undocumented immigrants to take the bar exam. Diana is one of two 1/ Diana Trochez is one of two plaintiffs to file a potentially historic petition with the Utah Supreme Court to allow DACA law degree holders to be admitted to the Utah state bar and practice law, joining only CA, CT, FL, NJ, and NY. /2