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Jay C. Shambaugh Profile picture
Jay C. Shambaugh
@JayCShambaugh
Director of The Hamilton Project. Professor of Economics & International Affairs at GWU. former Member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. He/him
Sep 21, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
@jasonfurman A few reactions.
1.Normally CA deficit gets smaller in a recession (private S rises, I falls), so stimulus is usually overwhelmed by private actions. (figure from 2010 ERP). If CB cuts rates during recession (and currency depreciates), not surprised to see CA improve. @jasonfurman 2.But this time, rest of world in recession too AND big fiscal surge. So maybe we expect deficit to get bigger. Really a question of us vs. rest of world. AND monetary reaction.
Feb 6, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
A lot of talk of risk on overheating if we do 1.9T relief bill (e.g. @LHSummers @ojblanchard1 ). Of course there’s a risk of anything. Question is balance of risks and costs of different outcomes. A thread on why risks of too much should not be overstated. 1. Virus persists / mutates. We don’t really come out of pandemic very well, stagnation in job market keeps up. In this case. We’re very glad to have done a big package (though we’d probably wish we’d done more using triggers, especially on UI and SNAP). Cost of too little is big
May 30, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Important thread from @itsafronomics . I think many economists on this platform feel a temptation to stay close to what they know and research, but the current protests are certainly in our lane too. (thread) It’s a good time to re-read @drlisadcook @TrevonDLogan and @jmparman 's work on lynchings or Trevon’s work on the importance of Black politicians or @SandyDarity ‘s work on racial wealth gaps
Mar 3, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
New post on how to respond to COVID-19 impacts on the economy. We need to fund health needs; fund states’ responses; fix holes in the safety net; fix specific business concerns; & most of all pass automatic stabilizers that kick in if economy deteriorates bit.ly/38lYO1d First: fund everything needed: testing, vaccines, equipment for medical personnel and first responders. Make sure funding is not the binding constraint on responding the health needs that the virus presents.