Some quick reactions to Nasrallah's speech. The topline takeaway is that we now have another data point suggesting the 10/7 operation is not producing the strategic results Iran hoped for, and it + its proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah) are motivated to wrap this misadventure up. 1/x First, let me just say that anyone who predicted (or, in ghoulish cases, hoped for) some sort of big pronouncement from Nasrallah that Hezbollah is taking its talents to the Golan, with fireworks behind him or whatever, is not someone you should pay attention to on here. 2/x

For obvious reasons, I’ve been thinking a lot about antisemitism lately. If you found my threads about the IDF useful, I hope you take a moment to read and share these thoughts. 1/x Prejudice rarely appears in cartoon form. Sure, there are some lunatics out there who proclaim, simply, “This group is inherently evil.” 2/x

Friends, do not give way to despair. Yes, many of our institutions have been hijacked by legions of the depraved. But I send you a message of hope from the unlikeliest of places, San Francisco, where we’ve been fighting those legions for the past 5 years. And we are winning. 1/x In 2019, our city took a dark turn. We elected a radical DA who set criminals above victims, racist education commissioners who vilified Asians and replaced algebra with political indoctrination, and corrupt Supervisors who fed poison to the homeless dying on our streets. 2/x

Wrapping up my prior thread on my time in the IDF and how operational decisions are made when civilian lives are at risk. Again, feel free to share if you find helpful. Going to break this into two parts and identify where you can take an intermission or just skip the rest. 1/x First, I want to respond to a couple good questions I’ve received over the last few days, starting with: Is the order to evacuate northern Gaza legal? 2/x

Some more perspective from my days in the IDF: In the weeks ahead, you'll struggle to reconcile your anger at Hamas with awful images of civilian casualties in Gaza. To help you arrive at your own conclusions, here's a primer on the IDF's moral framework for urban combat. 1/x It's worth noting that most of what I'm about to cover applies to all western militaries, not just the IDF. 2/x

Most people here know me from my involvement in SF politics, but from 2002-2005 I served as an infantryman in the IDF during the Second Intifada. I figure my local friends might benefit from the perspective of someone they know and trust, so here goes. (Feel free to share) 1/x If you need a primer on why there is no moral equivalency not just between Israel and Hamas, but the vast majority of the Israeli population and the vast majority of the Palestinian population, I recommend this clip. 2/x

https://x.com/SwipeWright/status/1710695934445694993?s=20

If we limited the use of EBT/food stamps to government-run grocery stores, while letting the rich buy groceries wherever they wanted, there'd be rioting in the streets. But, for some reason, Dems think this exact scenario is perfectly acceptable when it comes to K-12 education. Don't like school choice/vouchers/charter schools? Guess what? School choice already exists. It just exists only for rich people. The rest of you plebs can go pound sand, according to Democrats.

A couple years ago, Krugman wrote a book about "zombie" economic theories: arguments proven false, but that refuse to die and keep coming back. Most of the arguments supporting Chesa Boudin, such as those in yesterday's Chronicle editorial, are zombie theories of CJ. So... 1/x San Francisco does not practice mass incarceration. Anyone who tells you different is either a liar or a fool. We sentence fewer San Franciscans per capita to prison than noted carceral dystopias like, um, Greenland, New Zealand, Portugal, and Canada. 2/x vera.org/projects/incar…

Happy Sunday! Here's your weekly update of political goings-on in San Francisco. Kicking things off today w/ a shameless plug for my🎙️with @stateofbay. I discuss @BrionesSociety's vision for SF: good schools, safe neighborhoods, & a govn't that works. 1/x podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bus… Two recalls, two special elections, a primary, a general election, redistricting, and more. 2022 in San Francisco is the Barkley Marathons of local politics. Only the strong will survive. Glad to see you all made it another week :-) 2/2 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barkley_M…

In SF, our gov responded to COVID (~430 deaths in 2021) with all the resources & energy warranted by a crisis. Yet our DA has launched ZERO new initiatives or prosecution strategies to address the human misery wrought by drug merchants on our streets (~650 fatal ODs in 2021). 1/x Folks often ask whether the DA can meaningfully impact the fentanyl epidemic in our city, and question the wisdom of recalling Boudin. After all, what could he actually do different? The answer is becoming increasingly obvious: 2/x

ITT (long), everything you ever wanted to know about crime and incarceration, but were afraid to ask. I’ll also offer what I think is the strongest case for recalling Chesa Boudin -- a simple argument that can be embraced by almost everyone, both on the left and the right. 1/x One claim that has been made about Boudin is that he is an adherent of what I call the Jean Valjean School of Criminal Justice: First, if only offenders had more access to social and economic opportunity, they would not turn to crime. 2/x

Last week, literally on the day my new wife and I came home to SF after our wedding, an intoxicated man confronted us on our doorstep, blocked the way out of our home, and threatened to stab me. 1/x Unfortunately, this isn’t an unusual occurrence in our city, and my experience is no more special than anyone else’s -- so this isn’t a thread about the incident itself. For what it’s worth, we live in what is typically considered a “safe” neighborhood. 2/x

Two months ago, I examined crime trends in San Francisco and other cities to see whether Chesa Boudin was misleading the public by claiming that crime here was down. I concluded then that he was. Today, I’m updating my analysis, finding even more support for that conclusion. 1/x

https://twitter.com/JayNDonde/status/1378103957499772936

Part of the reason for this update is that I’m still seeing really bad takes bouncing around Twitter on this topic — analyses that don’t normalize to population, tourism flows, or nationwide trends. 2/x

Articles like this are so disappointing, because they parrot a narrative that is easy to disprove with a little bit of research. So, I did that research. A thread on the donors for and against recalling Chesa: 1/x

https://twitter.com/meganrcassidy/status/1379174752707694594

Before I start, let me just say that I find this entire discourse unproductive. People from all backgrounds and incomes, living in all parts of the country, are entitled to participate in the electoral process. 2/x

In response to claims by some that crime in SF is down despite most residents’ experiences to the contrary, I decided to dig into the data and see whether this claim is true or we’re all being gaslighted. A thread on crime, punishment, and Chesa Boudin. 1/x The first important conclusion is that SF is a relatively safe big city in terms of non-property-related violent crimes. The second is that we are very much not a safe city in terms of property-related crimes, both violent and non-violent. 2/x