🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼 Profile picture
Environmentalist and CIO Hayman Capital Management 🇺🇸Happy to Block ccp Twitter bots, Fan of Democracy, Rule of Law, and National Security. Life Member CFR
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Sep 1 • 5 tweets • 7 min read
Chat GPT’s LLM gave an outright false answer to an important question tonight. This interaction is an important reminder that AI output shouldn’t be treated as truth. Was Chat GPT’s answer politically motivated or directed by its chief philosopher? : 🧵 @elonmusk Question: What would be the potential ramifications of a U.S. military attack on mexican cartel leadership might be on mexican soil?

Answer: A U.S. military strike against cartel leadership inside Mexico would be unprecedented and extraordinarily consequential. The ramifications would span diplomatic, legal, security, and domestic political arenas:

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1. U.S.–Mexico Diplomatic Fallout
•Violation of sovereignty: Mexico would likely view such an action as a blatant breach of its sovereignty, similar to how Pakistan reacted after the U.S. raid on Bin Laden.
•Collapse of cooperation: Bilateral efforts on trade, migration, and security (USMCA trade pact, border enforcement, counter-narcotics programs) could be severely damaged.
•Rise in anti-American sentiment: Nationalist backlash inside Mexico could destabilize its politics, with Mexican leaders under pressure to distance themselves from Washington.

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2. International Law and Norm Precedent
•Question of legality: Unless done with Mexican consent, such a strike would likely be seen as a violation of international law (UN Charter’s prohibition on use of force in another sovereign state).
•Global precedent: Other countries might justify cross-border strikes on “non-state actors” within another country, weakening international norms.

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3. Security and Retaliation Risks
•Cartel retaliation: Cartels could escalate violence against U.S. officials, citizens, or businesses in Mexico—or even across the border.
•Potential spillover: Armed responses might target U.S. consulates, oil & gas assets, or American tourists in Mexico.
•Border violence: Escalation at the U.S.-Mexico border, including attacks on law enforcement or infrastructure, could follow.

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4. Domestic U.S. Political Ramifications
•Polarization: Some Americans would see it as decisive action against cartels; others would denounce it as reckless and unlawful.
•Military precedent: It would expand the scope of U.S. “war on terror”-style actions into the Western Hemisphere, potentially opening the door for broader interventionism.
•Congressional challenges: Legal authority (AUMF, War Powers Act) would be contested unless the President had prior authorization.

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5. Mexican Political & Social Consequences
•Destabilization of Mexico: An external strike could undermine Mexico’s institutions, empowering cartels that exploit nationalist anger.
•Shift in alliances: Mexico could deepen ties with powers like China or Russia to counter U.S. military pressure.
•Weakening of rule of law: If Mexico is seen as unable to control its territory, it could encourage calls for more radical U.S. interventions—or spark internal unrest.

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6. U.S.–Latin America & Global Implications
•Strained hemispheric relations: Other Latin American countries may condemn U.S. “imperialism,” complicating regional cooperation.
•Global blowback: If perceived as unilateral aggression, it could undermine U.S. credibility in criticizing Russia, China, or others for territorial violations.

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✅ Bottom line:
A U.S. military strike on cartel leaders inside Mexico could eliminate specific high-value targets, but it would also risk severely damaging U.S.–Mexico relations, destabilizing Mexican politics, and triggering cartel retaliation. It would mark a major escalation—comparable in impact to drone strikes in Pakistan or Yemen, but magnified because it involves America’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner.

Would you like me to also sketch out possible scenarios (best-case, middle, and worst-case outcomes) to show how this could play out over the short- and long-term?
Dec 28, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
For the security of the United States, @tiktok_us and its controlling algorithm MUST be in the hands of a U.S. company. TikTok US does $12 billion in revenue and it’s rumored to have bids north of $50 billion. Matt Pottinger (former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor) 🧵 Image has filed his own Amicus Brief with the Supreme Court on the issues around TikTok. One terrible ‘tell’ of the Chinese Communist Party’s control of the Trojan horse algorithm is the fact that they forced TikTok US to stop divulging its data immediately after the hearing in 2/5 Image
Dec 27, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
‼️ Award-winning Australian journalist and author, @SharriMarkson , breaks the story that President Biden CENSORED U.S. intelligence analysts and scientists on the origin of COVID-19. ‘US President Joe Biden’s 90-day probe into the origins of Covid-19 censored the input of 🧵 Image intelligence agency scientists who concluded the virus was most likely genetically engineered.’ Markson was one of the first to research and report about the behind-the-scenes activities of U.S. authorities in her groundbreaking book ‘What Really Happened in Wuhan’. 2/5 Image
Dec 7, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🚨 China 🇨🇳 has an epic reveal to be exposed between now and January 19th. A reverse Pascal’s Wager…whereby #TikTok either must be sold to a U.S. company (plenty of suitors have shown keen interest) OR it will be shut down and wiped out.. 🧵 Image A wipeout happens if the Chinese Communist Party won’t allow the algorithm out of their hands. TikTok USA has approximately $12B of revenue annually and is worth a minimum of $50 billion in a sale. If you are a shareholder in Bytedance, a sale is certainly their
Nov 19, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I believe World War III began the moment Putin invaded Ukraine. My belief is rooted in the idea that there are no off-ramps, there isn’t a solution that won’t melt down (think Munich Agreement 1938), and Putin has told his story about the rat he cornered in his kitchen 🧵 as a boy. Putin told President Bush (43) a story during his administration. Putin told Bush that he cornered the biggest he had ever seen in his kitchen. Putin moved in for the kill and when he did, the rat lunged at Putin and bit him in the neck…barely missing his
Sep 7, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
🚨 United States issues dire warning to U.S. businesses that operate in Hong Kong 🚨 in the press release below the U.S. State Department issued a stark warning to U.S. businesses about the serious risks to their operations and activities in Hong Kong. 🇭🇰 🧵 Image state.gov/hong-kong-busi…
Aug 3, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 It’s game time for radical Iran, Khameneni, and their illegitimate governments (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and others). An Iranian attack on Israel is imminent and so are the counter strikes. Biden/Harris administration’s blunder was giving Iran access to over $100B. 🧵 U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and Carrier Strike Group 3 to the Middle East due to an imminent attack by Iran 🇮🇷 on Israel 🇮🇱. Image
Jul 25, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Just spent time with a senior US Border official who shared a series of alarming stories. First, the Chinese and the Mexican cartels are flying drones from Mexico into the US to surveil US law enforcement. The FAA (overseen by @PeteButtigieg ) doesn’t allow any kind of 🧵 Image Drone interdiction or destruction by U.S. law enforcement. We can set up detection equipment to ‘detect’ if they are flying over, but we legally can’t do anything about it once we find them. This senior official installed detection equipment that had each detection Image
Jul 1, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Elections across the Western world are about runaway/weaponized migration and crippling inflation. Incumbents that have presided over both will be voted out of office. From France 🇫🇷 to the UK…🇬🇧 to the United States 🇺🇸 the media misses the point.🧵 Image According to the UN World Migration Report 2024, the number of displaced migrants hit an all-time high of 117 million (with the largest share of migrants to population being in Europe and North America (excluding island nations with scant populations)). worldmigrationreport.iom.int/news/world-mig…
Jun 25, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Phenomenal reporting by @Kate_OKeeffe on how the Chinese government continues to undermine U.S. national security by secretly funding scientific non-profits in the United States (Optica is either willfully negligent or a launderer) This is a MUST READ. 🧵 ‘The top Republican and Democrat on the House Science, Space and Technology Committee wrote in a May 16 letter to Rogan that Optica’s earlier failure to disclose Huawei’s involvement in the competition either showed deep ignorance toward research security or was a “willful strategy to launder funds from Huawei to anonymously bolster the Optica Foundation’s reputation and finances.”’
Jun 6, 2024 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Spending the 80th Anniversary of D-Day in Normandy with over one hundred 100-year-old Veterans of the liberation has been one of the ultimate highlights of my life. Here is Clayton Baum from San Diego. Clayton is 101 yrs-old and was a member of the 29thID. 🧵 Image I met Woody Woodhouse of the famous Tuskegee Airmen yesterday. While he wasn’t a pilot himself, he is an American treasure. Woody wears two watches and you should ask him why. Image
May 28, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
There are four wars the United States can fight against China:
1. Kinetic/Hot War - where the U.S. has the top war department in the world
2. Cyber War - U.S. again number one
3. Economic War - U.S. doesn’t have an economic war department. We field economic missiles like 🧵 Image fly balls. Some to Treasury, others to Commerce, few to the U.S. Trade Representative…and even DOD.
4. Propaganda War - U.S. doesn’t have a propaganda war department. Our enemies spend billions annually developing and circulating propaganda. We need a propaganda war dept. Image
Mar 31, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
China sent their top ‘retired’ PLA General and their ‘retired’ ambassador Cui Tiankai to threaten U.S. Combatant Commanders this week. They told us that they will ‘take’ the Second Thomas Shoal in the Philippines 🇵🇭 and that the U.S. should stay out of their business.
Image Looking at Hu’s propaganda feed over the past few weeks, he has been diligently setting the stage for a Chinese attack on the Second Thomas Shoal. He desperately has tried to make their belligerence appear to be A US and Filipino instigation. China’s ships and water cannons
Mar 9, 2024 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Trump is wasting no time compromising US national security with his head-scratching support of China’s TikTok. After listening to his top NSC advisors in 2020, “President Trump announced a decision ordering China's ByteDance to divest ownership 1/12 nypost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/nypost.com… of the application, and threatened to shut down its U.S. operations through executive action as soon as August 1 if the company did not comply.” Trump publicly decried TikTok as an urgent national security threat. Just a few short years later, Trump has flip-flopped into 2/12
Mar 1, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Take 2: On the suspicious death of Angela Chao…now a criminal investigation (a quantum leap from ‘an unfortunate accident’). A few critical facts that this journalist didn’t include in this article: 1. Her husband’s VC partnership IDG Capital was classified as a ‘Chinese Operation’ just days before her death.
2/9asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
Feb 29, 2024 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
After my shocking breakfast, I dropped by McNally Jackson bookstore in NYC’s Rockefeller Center. Just inside to the left, I found the table of ‘New Non-Fiction Books’. The books seem to have a common theme: 1/8 #programming
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Feb 27, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I followed a group of ‘special interest aliens’ from the CBP ‘processing center’ to the NGO (funded 100% by taxpayer money from the Biden Administration) called Mission Border Hope. All charities must file a Form 990 with the IRS that’s public. There, they received a ziplock Image Bag with papers that allow travel anywhere in the USA 🇺🇸 by airplane. They go to a window at Mission Border Hope and receive a plane ticket to wherever they would like to fly. No photo ID…no ID of any kind other than the ‘paperwork’ given to them by CBP’s ‘processing Image
Feb 22, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
And her Tesla launching Into the pond. The ranch is allegedly owned by Mitch McConnell and her sister Elaine Chao. The family had it ruled an ‘accidental’ death and had Chao’s car delivered back to the family immediately after the suspicious death. A blood test was taken 2/8 And a toxicology report is forthcoming. How local law enforcement fumbled these events early-on helped complicate this case exponentially. Once true investigators have their way with the car, the toxicology report, and the witnesses, expect some better reporting on the 3/8
Feb 14, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
‼️ Angela Chao’s death at a private Texas ranch in Blanco, County is suspicious. ‼️ Chao entered her Tesla and backed into a pond on the ranch and passed away. Chao, almost certainly a high-ranking member of the Communist Parry of China (she sat the board of state-owned Image Bank of China…one of the five largest banks in China. She also sat as a board member of China Ship Building Corporation (which was sanctioned by the U.S. Government in 2020 for building ships and weapons for the Chinese Navy). en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Sta…
Feb 3, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The WSJ just shut down its coverage of China in the U.S. The announcement contains a non-sensical quote from the Editor: Editor in Chief Emma Tucker said the Journal’s Washington bureau will now focus specifically on “politics, policy, defense, law, intelligence and national Image Security.” Editor and Chief says they will focus on ‘national security’ and the first they do is sack people like @Kate_OKeeffe ?!? Something more sinister is happening here. Kate is an amazing investigative journalist and will land somewhere better…but watching Washington Image
Jan 20, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
With China facing a real estate collapse, a banking crisis, a local government debt crisis ($13 trillion market), and a youth unemployment explosion…the Chinese are at Davos and ready to engage to attract more investment into the middling kingdom. Forget losing (1/7) money over the last 15 years (in the face of +500% reported GDP growth), PLEASE invest MORE in China…we promise to ensure a positive return! I stopped attending Davos the year Xi was invited to be the keynote. It’s a perfect place for the hollow platitudes of the Communist (2/7) Image