NEW @Instituteforgov REPORT OUT TODAY from @jillongovt, @jameskkane, @DanGoss222 and me.

🐄 Agriculture after Brexit: Replacing the CAP 🚜

TLDR: The government has ambitious plans, but may struggle to meet the high expectations it has set

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/a…
🧵 Brexit means UK politicians have taken back control of – and responsibility for – large swathes of policy previously decided by the EU. Reform of the much-criticised EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a clear test case of the challenges of delivering a ‘Brexit dividend’

The government has published a 100-page paper on the 'Benefits of Brexit' setting out:
- What's changed so far
- Reform of the better regulation system
- Vision for future change

It is long, but a few v initial thoughts
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… First, the report seems to lump together quite a few different things. Major changes (new immigration system) and small ones (crown stamps on pint glasses). Changes that have happened (VAT reforms on sanitary products) alongside things still in motion (financial services)

Over the weekend there's been more talk about pending 🇬🇧🇪🇺clash over the Northern Ireland Protocol and how the EU might respond should the UK trigger article 16

(Refreshed)🧵on what might happen 👇 Firstly, what is Article 16?

It allows the UK or EU to take 'safeguarding' measures if the protocol leads to “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/nor…

New NAO report on the post Brexit border.

Christmas come early for border nerds like me
🤓🎄🛃🚫😢

A few initial reflections from a quick skim

🧵

nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl… The report is a great account of gov and biz prep for GB-EU and GB-NI border controls, the impact they've had so far and what more needs to be done.

Many of the messages about prep and how things have gone mirror our @instituteforgov report in March instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/b…

Lots of talk about pending 🇬🇧🇪🇺clash over the Northern Ireland Protocol and how the EU might respond should the UK trigger article 16

🧵on what might happen 👇 Firstly, what is Article 16?

It allows the UK or EU to take 'safeguarding' measures if the protocol leads to “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/nor…

What's going on with the UK-EU relationship, and what could happen?

Recent days have seen threats of legal challenges over 🐟 and expectation of a clash over NI post COP

Our new @instituteforgov material sets out the possible legal disputes (h/t @melissaittoo + @DanGoss222) 🚨Article 16 🚨

First up - we could see the UK trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol and take safeguarding measures. The EU could take proportionate 'rebalancing' measures in response.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/nor…

Brexit is done? Well not quite.

Full checks at the EU - Great Britain and Great Britain - Northern Ireland borders have yet to take effect.
🚛🚛🛂⛴️🛂🚛🚛

Our @instituteforgov timeline shows the changes still to come 👇 Full checks on goods imported from the EU to GB are due to be introduced between October 2021 and March 2022 (having already been delayed).

Last week, the government published a revised Border Operating Model explaining how these checks will work.

🛂🚛

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Brexit provides the freedom to do things differently to the EU... but how should ministers use it?

The PM-commissioned Taskforce for Innovation, Growth and Regulatory Reform (TIGRR) has just published a report suggesting how...

Some initial thoughts🧵

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… As we set out in our recent @instituteforgov report, there are good reasons why the UK might want to regulate differently.
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

Brexit is done, yes?

Well, not quite.

Various deadlines, delayed Brexit changes and ongoing dialogues mean the UK-EU relationship will continue to evolve over the months and years ahead.

@instituteforgov we've tried to capture the important save the dates

👇 So, where do these come from?

We've listed four categories:
🤝Dates in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and Joint Decs.
🔖Dates in the NI protocol
👋Dates in the rest of the Withdrawal Agreement
🇬🇧🇪🇺Dates set unilaterally by the UK and EU

Draft legislation to implement the UK-EU deal now published

A few quick thoughts (although very much first takes...)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… It seems like the bill contains a mix of some of the options outlined in our @instituteforgov explainer on UK ratification

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/fut…

There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…) instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/p… First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security cooperation
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/fu…

There is talk of this being *the* crunch week in Brexit negotiations

But, I'm sorry to say, the end of negotiations won't mean the end of Brexit.

Many consequences of Brexit will play out well into 2021+ beyond - demanding gov and business attention

Just a few examples...
🧵 Deal or no deal, the end of the year will be a watershed moment in the UK's trading + security relationship with the EU-with new customs + regulatory barriers to trade, clunkier security coop + an end to free movement of people

Despite this, we can't waive bye to Brexit just yet

Brexit talks are in the 'tunnel' or final stretch, with rumours of a deal as soon as next week.

But what difference would a deal make?

🧵

Tl,dr: Not much in terms of what needs to be done to prepare, but a big difference for business and future UK-EU relations

1/ In terms of what needs to be done to prepare-not much

The type of deal the Johnson gov has sought means the UK will be leaving the single market + customs union deal or no deal

The UK + EU will apply different reg. regimes and there'll be new customs and reg checks on goods 2/

What could happen if MPs vote down the government's proposed timetable for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill?

Well, despite the Prime Minister's 'my timetable' or 'election' posturing, the truth is several options are on the table. 1. The government decides not to 'pull' (or park) bill and call an early election, as the Prime Minister indicated. Would need
- 2/3 majority in favour or
- A short bill bypassing the 2/3 requirement - but needing to get through all parliamentary stages and risking amendments

So the WAB is published publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill…

Twitter will be awash with analysis, but I'm going to stick to pointing out some of the key bits for now. First, the bill saves the effect of parts of the European Communities Act for the length of the implementation period. The ECA is the key legal pipeline giving effect to EU law in the UK. It also saves other pieces of legislation needed to give effect to transition (clauses 1/2)

Quick thread on Saturday in Parliament:
- What the votes mean
- The key parliamentary groupings
- What happens next First, passing a motion to approve the deal is only step 1 of the process. If passed, it will do 2 things:
1. Remove the Benn Act requirement to request an extension
2. Pave the way for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to put the international agreement into domestic law 2/

What has the Supreme Court decided?
supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uks…

Quick thread on reasoning and implications. 1. The court highlighted the significant distinction between prorogation, recess, adjournment and dissolution in term s of parliamentary activity- including its ability to hold government to account. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pro…

There is a lot of confusion on Twitter about the possibility of the gov asking MPs to approve ONLY the Withdrawal Agreement part of the deal tomorrow.
This may partly be a result of the different requirements at play in EU law and UK law: - As a matter of UK LAW, MPs need to approve the WA and PD before the UK can ratify the WA (unless the requirement in the EU (Withdrawal) Act is changed by a new piece of primary legislation). This is what the 'meaningful votes' have been trying to do.

1 ’What Brexit drama do we have to look forward to this week?’ Lots, it seems.

Over the weekend, many others have considered the latest developments in detail. This thread tries to summarise things a little. 2 There are 3 things in play:
- Gov attempts to win MPs round to a version of the PM’s deal
- Attempts by MPs to take no deal off the table, or at least delay it
- Attempts by MPs (and maybe the Gov) to find out what kind of Brexit MPs want

1. A thread attempting to make sense of what has been happening in Parliament (also, as always, things are evolving) 2. MPs are currently debating the Gov's porposed deal ahead of the 'Meaningful Vote', due to be held next Tuesday, having previously been delayed before Christmas. Our @instituteforgov explainer outlines what this means. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…

A few thoughts on last night's events in Parliament.
1. As Grieve said himself, his amendment does not prevent a no deal (still the legal default), but does make it less likely by allowing Parli step in and tell the gov not to let it happen. 2. As @ThimontJack has said, by making Parli's 2nd vote amendable - the Grieve amendment allows MPs to push the can down the road again, using the first vote to reject the PM's deal, but only having to make substantive suggestions on what they want instead in round 2.