Joe Mayes Profile picture
U.K. Politics reporter for Bloomberg, covering the Treasury, Brexit and trade. My DMs are open. Ping me for WhatsApp or Signal. Email:
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Jun 23 18 tweets 6 min read
New: On the 6-year anniversary of the Brexit vote, the UK government was asked to identify the biggest benefits of the split. The answer raised some eyebrows... 1/… Boris Johnson's spokesman was invited today to identify the most important ways that Brexit has improved lives. He chose: New trade deals, the ``bill of rights'' and repealing retained EU law. Let's look at those... 2/
Jun 18 14 tweets 6 min read
New: Boris Johnson won power in 2019 by appealing to the pro-Brexit industrial heartlands of Britain and traditional Tories in the south.

The by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton will show that electoral coalition under strain 1/… Wakefield is a typically ‘Red Wall’ seat - 66% vote to leave the EU in 2016, had voted Labour since the 1930s - that Johnson won with the ‘Get Brexit Done’ campaign. Voters are going to the polls on June 23… 2/
Jun 14 9 tweets 3 min read
New: Liz Truss backtracks on Article 16 Brexit threat. This is an interesting development in the government's position... 🤔1/… Remember, for more than a year, the British government via David Frost and then Truss repeatedly threatened to activate Article 16 of the NI protocol - which allows emergency action to address disruption. See Truss op-end from January 2/…
Jun 14 6 tweets 3 min read
New: Johnson's plan to override the Brexit deal is heading for a fight in Westminster.
Tory MP Roger Gale: `I do not see how I or indeed any Member of Parliament can vote for a breach of international law' 1/… w/ @EllenAMilligan Lord Pannick, who represented Gina Miller in the Supreme Court case which ruled that Johnson unlawfully prorogued Parliament, says: `I would be very surprised if the government were able to obtain the approval of the House of Lords for this bill' 2/…
Jun 13 9 tweets 3 min read
Breaking: The DUP says publication of the government's bill to override the Brexit deal won't restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland 1/… “If the government ever thought that simply the publication of the bill was going to trigger us going back into the assembly, it was never ever going to happen,” Sammy Wilson says in an interview 2/
May 26 17 tweets 7 min read
Here's a thread on everything you need to know about Rishi Sunak's cost-of-living package... 1/… What did he announce?
£15 billion of new government support, bringing the total support package to £37 billion, or 1.5% of UK GDP. That's comparable to what's being done in France and Germany 2/…
May 18 17 tweets 8 min read
New: 86% of the seats Boris Johnson won from Labour in the `Red Wall' have fallen further behind London & the South East since he became prime minister 1/… If you missed it last week, Bloomberg's Levelling Up Scorecard tracks the performance of all 650 constituencies across 12 socio-economic metrics, showing their performance vs London & SE since 2019 2/
May 12 14 tweets 6 min read
Exclusive: Most of the UK has fallen further behind London & the South East since Boris Johnson became prime minister, a major blow for `levelling up' 1/… Bloomberg has analysed 12 socio-economic metrics across all 650 constituencies in the UK and compared their performance to London & the South East since 2019. The results show Johnson's promise to `level up' is in trouble 2/…
Apr 8 8 tweets 3 min read
New: The U.K.'s post-Brexit border IT system has crashed and will remain out of service until at least next week 1/… The Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS) -- which allows companies to clear customs forms in advance of reaching the U.K.-EU border -- is out of action until at least Monday, according to HMRC… 2/
Mar 17 12 tweets 5 min read
New: What could Rishi Sunak do to tackle the cost-of-living crisis? Here are his options... 1/… Context #1: Brits were facing the worst squeeze on living standards in decades even before Russia's war with Ukraine. Spiking oil and gas prices now only make it worse 2/…
Jan 31 6 tweets 3 min read
What to look for in the (redacted) Sue Gray report? Publication is imminent and here's what could hurt Johnson... 1/… w/ @elashton On Dec. 1, Johnson said in the Commons: `All guidance was followed completely in No. 10.'
Will Sue Gray say that *at any moment* guidance was not followed in No. 10? If so, Johnson can be accused of misleading Parliament 2/
Jan 19 5 tweets 2 min read
Note - there’s far from unity among the 109ers. One texts to say: ‘I was sounded out and it’s a self-destructive move. There are just a bunch of w****** who want their 5 mins of fame. Most are just pissed off their brilliance has not been recognised’ … 1/… Numerous other 109ers I spoke to last night were simply unaware of the plotting or continued to express support for Johnson. Feels like many sitting on the fence, seeing which way the wind will blow/waiting for Sue Gray 2/
Jan 4 9 tweets 3 min read
Breaking: a new post-Brexit IT system is holding up lorries in the EU, as the latest wave of red tape kicks in 1/… You'll remember that new Brexit restrictions kicked in on Jan 1 -- imports to the UK needed to be processed on the Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS). Well companies are already having trouble with the system... 2/…
Dec 22, 2021 22 tweets 9 min read
One year of Brexit has led to:
-- Reduced trade and economic growth 📉
-- Higher cost of living 🛒🥵
-- A weaker City of London 🙅‍♂️💰
Here's what Brexit did to Britain in 2021... 1/… Trade has suffered. As of October, goods trade was £12.6 billion lower than it would've been -- or 15.7% lower -- than if Britain had stayed in the EU, according to modelling by @CER_EU 2/…
Dec 21, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
Some job news - I'm taking over Bloomberg's political coverage of the Treasury! It's a big new responsibility and can't wait to get stuck in😁1/ I'll still be writing on Brexit (because Brexit is for life, not just a ruined Christmas😅) but my primary focus will be the work of the Chancellor and how he steers the U.K. economy in the years ahead 2/…
Dec 17, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
Is the game up for Boris Johnson? Here are six reasons to think the answer is currently no... 1/… w/ @kitty_donaldson 1/ There's no obvious successor ready to swoop. Sunak and Truss get talked about as front-runners, but neither currently has the backing of a big-enough caucus of MPs to challenge Johnson...
Dec 16, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
New: A new wave of Brexit red tape will hit firms on Jan. 1, just as they wrestle with disruption from the omicron variant… What's changing? Imports from the EU will need full customs declarations at point of entry (no option for deferral). Food imports will have to be pre-registered on an IT system... 2/
Nov 29, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read
``We've probably got the worst government in my living memory'' - I went to Old Bexley & Sidcup ahead of the by-election this week to talk to voters, and here's what I found... 1/… Old Bexley & Sidcup is an affluent outer London borough and a safe Conservative seat. The by-election was triggered by the death of popular former minister James Brokenshire, who had a near 19,000-vote majority in 2019 2/
Nov 24, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Remarkable exchange at trade committee just now.
Q: How do benefits of trade deal with New Zealand compare to the economic harms of Brexit (e.g. 4% reduction in GDP, per OBR forecast)?
A: ``I haven't done those statistics,'' Britain's trade secretary says 🤷‍♂️ 1/ Well the government's scoping assessment of an FTA with New Zealand said there would be no long-run positive impact to U.K. GDP 🧐 2/…
Nov 5, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
New: the U.K. has spent more than 1 billion pounds on its post-Brexit border measures, as trade with the EU fell 15% in second quarter vs Q2 2018 1/… The £1bn spend - which is about 1/3 of what the govt will spend on new hospitals over the next three years, and 2x the budget of DIT - is highlighted in this new report by the NAO on the border 2/…
Nov 5, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
Exclusive: the government's original analysis of the Australia trade deal would've shown a negative impact on Northern Ireland.

But officials have now changed their workings, so now it will show a positive impact 1/… You may remember back in 2020, when the government's preliminary assessment of a trade deal with Australia was that - under full tariff liberalization - it would leave Northern Ireland worse off, due to NI's high exposure to agriculture.. 2/…