'Baseline' has been bandied about since January but never explained. It's a measure of deaths under usual circumstances. It may be simple long-term average (e.g. 5 years, so events cancel out, like noise about a zero mean), or a model of the average (like FluMOMO used here).

https://twitter.com/ritalouise/status/1322521336380608512

FluMOMO takes into account annual influenza deaths and deaths from excess temperature (cold, heatwaves), hence the wavy pattern. So respiratory deaths from the usual pathogens are taken into account. When Covid struck, it caused a pattern of deaths that was well outside ...

1/n Covid hysteria is a threat to democracy. It is has now filled the entire arena of political discourse. The only political issue is now Covid. Ruling governments/leaders claim to following the science and doing everything to save lives. So how can anyone oppose them? ...

https://twitter.com/ChrisGodlak/status/1322235786222292992

2/n Come 2022, what is any challenger to Macron supposed to fight the election on? Accuse him of not locking down hard enough? That seems to be the only issue (feebly) raised by opposition parties Europe-wide. Ditto Merkel. Incumbent powers are now...

Your reading of the data is wrong. Covid deaths may be increasing again, but it doesn't mean they are excess deaths. Unlike March-May, the recent deaths would have happened anyway. In a nutshell: people who die of old age/disease WITH Covid. 1/n

https://twitter.com/jnordvig/status/1315123962607796225

2/n In the first wave, life expectancy of victims was cut short, by years in a few cases, but mostly by months (data: average age of victims is roughly equal to life expectancy of respective countries). This led to an excess of deaths above the usual baseline and a depletion of..