Media relations and sometime scribbler on economics and financial markets. Cycling, politics, markets. Tweets in a personal capacity
Jul 22, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Short 🧵 outlining the arguments in my new @PJOpinion piece.
What the first minister means when she uses the term 'respect democracy' is that we must accept her particular, self-serving, and very nationalist, interpretation of democracy. 1/7
pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/opinion/456…
Nicola Sturgeon appears to believe democracies function on the basis that a minority party going into coalition with another minority party to take control of a devolved, sub-state legislature automatically has the power to re-write the constitution of the state. 2/7
Apr 20, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Maybe there's another way of looking at this. Thread of musings👇:
We could start by recognising that separatist referendums in free democracies are almost never heard of (Quebec and Scotland are outliers), and ask the question why that is. 1/
It's because the norm since the start of the modern democratic era, post WW2, is that if you're part of a society characterised by liberty & democratic representation then there's a reasonable expectation you should tolerate the diversity and inclusivity that comes with that. 2/
Nov 25, 2020 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
This was interesting. One takeaway was the reveal - more a confirmation - from @AndrewWilson that a key leverage point for an SNP gov't in any future separation negotiation would be to threaten to walk away from accepting an effective fair share of UK debt. Thread 1/
Leaving aside how morally repugnant it would be to leave that debt solely as the responsibility of the people of the remaining UK just after a pandemic in which the UK has borrowed so heavily to save lives & jobs in Scotland, it's also revealing of SNP strategy in another way. 2/
Sep 14, 2020 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
While I respect people changing position on this issue, in either direction, I do think McGregor is failing to see the bigger picture and makes one crucial fundamental analytical error 👇 1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/the-fo…
First you have to understand that different voting patterns don't point to fundamental differences between the people of Scotland and England/rUK. Social attitude surveys consistently show that the ancient border dividing line is mostly irrelevant to our attitudes. 2/
Jul 8, 2020 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
This would entail Scotland issuing vast amounts - billions of pounds worth - of 'sub-sovereign' bonds directly to the market. Potentially a good idea? Maybe, but ironically it's likely a non-stater because of SNP policies. Here's why (thread). 1/
Sub-sovereign bonds are debt instruments 'issued' - sold - by sub-national governments & are not uncommon, especially in federations. The Free State of Bavaria for example issued €3 billion of bonds in March to help finance lockdown. 2/
Jun 12, 2020 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
I see some are seeing posts like this and deploying the straw man "too wee, too poor" argument & saying Scotland would just be borrowing and furloughing workers like any other country right now if we had gone indy. Let me explain why that doesn't stand to reason. Thread 1/
First, no one is saying a country of 5 million people with an advanced economy can't issue debt, have a central bank controlling its money supply etc. The argument is one of transition - going from being an integrated part of a single monetary & fiscal entity, the UK, and 2/
