John Ferry Profile picture
Dad. Ex journo comms guy. Cycling, politics, financial markets
14 Sep
While I respect people changing position on this issue, in either direction, I do think McGregor is failing to see the bigger picture and makes one crucial fundamental analytical error 👇 1/…
First you have to understand that different voting patterns don't point to fundamental differences between the people of Scotland and England/rUK. Social attitude surveys consistently show that the ancient border dividing line is mostly irrelevant to our attitudes. 2/
One myth for example is that we Scots have a more progressive attitude to immigration, the idea being that Scotland is open & outward looking compared with a closed, inward-looking England. But the evidence points to no real difference in attitudes. 3/…
Read 17 tweets
8 Jul
This would entail Scotland issuing vast amounts - billions of pounds worth - of 'sub-sovereign' bonds directly to the market. Potentially a good idea? Maybe, but ironically it's likely a non-stater because of SNP policies. Here's why (thread). 1/
Sub-sovereign bonds are debt instruments 'issued' - sold - by sub-national governments & are not uncommon, especially in federations. The Free State of Bavaria for example issued €3 billion of bonds in March to help finance lockdown. 2/
The @scotgov argues it wants to take advantage of current ultra-low interest rates & become a big sub-sovereign borrower, but that assumes @scotgov will, like the Bank of England, be able to borrow at ultra-low rates. 3/
Read 15 tweets
12 Jun
I see some are seeing posts like this and deploying the straw man "too wee, too poor" argument & saying Scotland would just be borrowing and furloughing workers like any other country right now if we had gone indy. Let me explain why that doesn't stand to reason. Thread 1/
First, no one is saying a country of 5 million people with an advanced economy can't issue debt, have a central bank controlling its money supply etc. The argument is one of transition - going from being an integrated part of a single monetary & fiscal entity, the UK, and 2/
then unilaterally removing your economy from those functions & trying to transition to operating on a stand-alone basis with a new currency regime & credible fiscal systems in place. Let's be clear how momentous & challenging that would be. 3/
Read 18 tweets