There has been a massive marketing campaign this fall to convince Americans that crime is the top issue in the mid-terms. It hasn't worked. A short thread on why the fear of crime narrative has mainly failed.

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1587027024476082177

First, the narrative. A headline from Gallup last Friday reports a “Record-High 56% in U.S. Perceive Local Crime Has Increased.” And here’s the data below, showing a sharp increase in Americans’ belief that local and national crime is increasing.

A very thoughtful primer from @RTI_Intl, @BJSgov, and @FBI on data imputation methods to correct for nonreporting in NIBRS data. I would encourage researchers and reporters to take a look. But... bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pd… Limits in NIBRS coverage mean the data are a step back from prior years in measuring state and national crime. "Agencies contributing NIBRS data covered 65 percent of the United States population, compared to the 95 percent of the population covered ... in prior years" (pg. 5).

1/ An important study from @Everytown and @MomsDemand @shannonrwatts. We do not know how many people are shot and survive in America each year. This study is an important step in filling that gap. It's a big number--70,000+ annually: escholarship.org/uc/item/5qh240… 2/ We have a data system that tracks fatal shootings--the National Violent Death Reporting System. Researchers review every death certificate and determine whether the shooting was intentional, accidental, or self-inflicted. We do not have a similar system for nonfatal shootings.

I keep hearing the average age of the few protestors who were arrested during the Capitol attack was about 40 years old. There were some really dangerous people in that crowd. III Percenters, neo-nazis, the vanguard, the fist of hate in America. Do not let them off the hook.

Policing is a choice. Who to police and how to police them. True today. True every day.

https://twitter.com/abbydphillip/status/1346912544192032770

nytimes.com/live/2021/01/0…

I have a couple of ideas in here, but I think there's a bigger idea that I can no longer avoid: there are way too many police officers in the US. It's not just a bad apples problem, it's a too many apples problem.

https://twitter.com/germanrlopez/status/1267539734873681922

The typical math for figuring if more cops should be hired is 'how much crime does one officer prevent?' The cost of that officer, measured in damage to a community, is never monetized.

A report card on a decade of crime in America 2010-2019. 10 ways to reduce crime and violence that were well known on Jan. 1, 2010. How did we do? *Spoiler alert: not great. Read on. Written w/@caterinaroman 1/N Ending Mass Incarceration. We have known for a long time not only that there is no proof that prison reduces crime but that long periods of incarceration are assoc. with continued offending and are destructive for families and communities. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11… @johnpfaff 2/N

A fun tale about where everyday 'facts' come from. I happened on a widely reported statistic (the number of cruise ships (16) that have sunk in the last 30 years) and thought I would track it back to see if it was real or if it was a zombie. Spoiler: eh, no spoiler. Read on. 1/n You probably heard about the Norwegian Sky cruise ship that lost engine power in high seas. After 24 harrowing hours, the ship limped into port on Sunday. In the interim, 479(!) people were lifted off the ship’s deck by helicopter, one at a time. 2/n

How do we fix communities besieged by gun violence? Intensive policing? Community-justice partnerships? Anti-poverty programs? Harsher punishments? Evidence-based human services? Philly is grappling w/all these questions. All cities should pay attention. @caterinagroman 1/n Both progressive reformers and law + order advocates should note the energetic debate in the @phillynews opinion pages. An Inquirer editorial, an op-ed, and letters from city leaders w/strongly divergent opinions. @caterinagroman and I will summarize and offer our thoughts. 2/n