I'm looking at the numbers and here is an estimate of what I think is the most likely scenario in Clark County, NV. It's not intended to be an election prediction, but an idea of what I expect based on the existing trends. First, I expect somewhere around 200k more mail, including election day drop offs. Given current trends and an estimate of how Others will break with different voting methods, this would give Dems an 86k vote margin in Clark with EIP+Mail. Candidate vote margin (not partisanship)

Clark County Elections Division is saying about 7000 mail ballots still need to be cured. If I'm understanding this correctly, it means another 2000 mail ballots have been cured. These should be very heavy for Cortez Masto.

I believe I was the only one to suggest NV03 was leaning D. Definitely on.

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589857628162732034

Remember when this tweet of mine blew some people's minds?

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1586553843378266112

New Mail ballots counted and reported

Cortez Masto 17,150 (63%) +8,190
Laxalt 8960 (33%)
Total 27,229 So, when I was posting that Masto would net 12.5k from all 50k outstanding mail, that was the minimum. However, it seems like she is doing better with Others than that minimum estimate. If the rest go the same way, she would net another ~6,500, tanking her to 14,800 net gain.

Clark County, NV 11/10

Mail
Total 335143
Dem 157277 (46.9%) +76,031
Rep 81246 (24.2%)
Other 96620 (28.8%)

EV+Mail
Total 529937
Dem 222469 (42.0%) +52,877
Rep 169592 (32.0%)
Other 137876 (26.0%)

All
Total 673717
Dem 263225 (39.0%) +32,776
Rep 230449 (34.2%)
Other 180043 (26.7%) These are all processed ballots (not including ballots needing to be cured) as of 11/10/2022. Note that there are 335,143 mail ballots that have been processed, but Clark has only officially counted and posted the results for 283,914 mail ballots. Meaning 51,229 aren't counted.

New Huge Batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/10/2022
Added 35,183
Dem 14,756 (41.9%) +6,068
Rep 8,688 (24.7%)
Other 11,739 (33.4%)

@RalstonReports These would have to be EDay drop-offs. So, a few points more Rep than regular mail. Again, I expect the Others to go heavy for Dem, so probably at least a 9k gain for Cortez Masto with this batch alone.

New Mail ballots counted and reported

Cortez Masto 7480 (61%) +3,285
Laxalt 4195 (34%)
Total 12239 I think this is mail that was delivered by the USPS on Wednesday.

New Very Big Batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/9/2022
Added 26,392
Dem 10,547 (40.0%) +4,117
Rep 6,376 (24.2%)
Other 9,469 (35.9%)

@RalstonReports I think this is a mixture of drop-offs from EDay and some USPS mail from today. It is possible that this is just EDay drop-offs. If so, this is good for Dems.

Here's the thing, Dems are going to win the Others heavily, so I acutally expect Cortez Masto to net about 8k votes.

Mail ballots that I posted last night have been counted and posted.

Cortez Masto 9,158 (+4,889)
Laxalt 4,269

So, like I said, Dems are winning the Others big on mail ballots. Dem minus Rep would have only netted 3.1k votes for Cortez Masto. This makes a comeback for Cortez Masto much more likely.

@RalstonReports

My estimate for Clark County, Nevada Eday drop offs was 55k. I was so on. Remember there are probably another roughly 40k that will come in through the regular mail, plus the 15k I reported last night. This adds up to over 100k mail ballots.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590500798361845760

To be clear, the 100k I am talking about is Clark alone. I'm not including the 57k from Washoe. So, I'm estimating 167k mail (assuming I'm right about he 40k). I'm not including any late arriving mail in Washoe, so could be more.

Clark vote right now:
Cortez Masto 55% 248,243
Laxalt 42% 190,526 This is the early and mail up to yesterday probably. So, Dems would be winning the Others in that group.

Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

12:30pm
Total 61,645
Dem 15,343 (24.9%)
Rep 29,580 (48.0%) +14,237
Other 16,722 (27.1%)

@RalstonReports A good number of ballots in a half hour, giving Reps another boost of 1,736 ballots. Rep margin % dropped another 1% and is now at 23.1%. Faster than the last drop (only in a 1/2 hour).

Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

8:12am
Total 12543
Dem 2971 (23.7%)
Rep 6332 (50.5%) +3,361
Other 3240 (25.8%)

@RalstonReports Reps were up by 14.4% in 2020, but at 9:30. I expect the margin to drop as time goes on, but don't know how fast. Dems probably need it to drop faster than 2020. Turnout seems up over 2020 already. However, no drop-off mail is included here. Dems are more likely to drop-off.

New medium batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/7/2022
Added 11,879
Dem 5,424 (45.7%) +2,848
Rep 2,576 (21.7%)
Other 3,879 (32.7%)

@RalstonReports All Mail Ballots (problematic ballots removed):
Total 258,645
Dem 125,587 (48.6%) +62,717
Rep 62,870 (24.3%)
Other 70,188 (27.1%)

All Mail + EV Ballots
Total 453,439
Dem 190,779 (42.1%) +39,563
Rep 151,216 (33.3%)
Other 111,444 (24.6%)

Reminder, I will be live tweeting the ballots in Clark County, Nevada all day tomorrow. This will include Dem/Rep/Other breakdowns of who is voting and turnout. This is what it looked like in 2020. Started out with Reps winning at 41.6% at around 9:30am. This declined through the day as Dems started to win new ballots in the late afternoon. This ended with Reps around 35% and Dems around 31% with a lot of Others.

So I took a quick look at the rurals and I'm seeing some similar signals that I see in Clark. In rural counties with >1500 votes in early voting, the Dems % margin is down compared to 2020. These #'s are similar to Clark. The issue is, at least in Clark, is that we know there will be more mail coming in that will change these numbers and reduce the margin that Dems are down. It stands to reason that similar late mail could occur in the rurals as well.

New tiny tiny batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/6/2022
Added 122
Dem 55 (45.1%) +29
Rep 26 (21.3%)
Other 41 (33.6%)

@RalstonReports @RalstonReports This is what happens when you don't allow people to turn in their ballots on a day.

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589483752191057920

So, given what information is available (using Pew and the Nevada Independent polls), I'd estimate that election day turnout will be about 2x the turnout of 2020 in Clark County. I'm estimating around 230,000 votes. This, combined with remaining mail would give ~75% 2020 turnout I expect Rep EDay margins to not be as high as 2020 with more Dems and younger voters waiting for EDay this year. However, given a much larger turnout than 2020, Reps don't necessarily need the same margins to win (e.g., mail doesn't come in for Dems or Indies go Rep).

New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/5/2022
Added 28,372
Dem 13,970 (49.2%) +8,076
Rep 5,894 (20.8%)
Other 8,508 (30.0%)

@RalstonReports Huge day for Dems with an uncontested 8k gain in raw ballots margin over Reps. They got a 28.4% margin over Reps for the day, an improvement over 2020. This was 86% of the turnout for the same day in 2020.

Clark Minor Update

EIP
Total 194,794
Dem 65,192 (33.5%)
Rep 88,346 (45.4%) +23,154
Other 41,256 (21.2%)

Mail
Total 219,291
Dem 106,582 (48.6%) +52,062
Rep 54,520 (24.9%)
Other 58,189 (26.5%)

All
Total 414,085
Dem 171,774 (41.5%) +28,908
Rep 142,866 (34.5%)
Other 99,445 (24.0%) This includes updated numbers for EIP. There are more ballots than originally recorded and these leaned Rep. Not clear what the difference is, but I'm guessing these include same-day registrants from EIP.

Mail may be a bit different from SOS, but I am excluding uncured ballots.

New big batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/4/2022
Added 18792
Dem 8957 (47.7%) +4,704
Rep 4253 (22.6%)
Other 5582 (29.7%)

@RalstonReports All Mail Ballots (problematic ballots removed):
Total 219,836
Dem 106,784 (48.6%) +52,158
Rep 54,626 (24.8%)
Other 58,426 (26.6%)

All Mail + EV Ballots
Total 407,738
Dem 169,500 (41.6%) +29,273
Rep 140,227 (34.4%)
Other 98,011 (24.0%)