Cutting through the noise, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg makes two substantive criticisms of my cost of Brexit estimates in The Express. express.co.uk/comment/expres… First, he argues that the doppelganger does not match UK growth between 1999 and 2008, so it's worthless as a predictor of what would have happened to the UK after 2016.

My latest estimates for the cost of Brexit are out. A short thread rebutting the model's critics. 1/

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1605474579383832577

@julianHjessop, Graham Gudgin and Harry Western argue that it's "heroic" to assign "any slower growth after 2016 Q2 to Brexit". briefingsforbritain.co.uk/what-impact-is…

I'll leave it to others to discuss the political aspects of @DavidGHFrost's speech to @UKandEU today. But he makes these claims about my estimates, so I thought I'd clear some things up. 1/ @DavidGHFrost @UKandEU I don't "change the doppelganger group" in different versions. The doppelganger countries, which I use to as a counterfactual UK that didn't leave the EU, are chosen by an algorithm. 2/

Cost of Brexit for December is -15%, similar to previous months. More interesting thread follows on the Great Exports Puzzle. 1/

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1501966113638273054

What is the puzzle? Analysts have been scratching their heads about why UK imports from the EU appear to have suffered more than exports to the EU. After all, Britain hasn't been fully enforcing its border. The EU has.

The European Commission plan to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds is here energy.ec.europa.eu/repowereu-join…
Use windfall tax on energy firms and ETS revenues. State aid allowed in supporting businesses, as is breaking fiscal rules to finance subsidy. EU to mandate 90% full gas storage by October 1 each year.

My latest estimate is out, using the March data published this morning. It's worse than in February (trade was 5% lower than our old friend doppelganger UK then). 1/

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1392434381101277189

That's because trade in the countries that make up the doppelganger grew more quickly than the UK's, and because the ONS revised February's trade data downwards. 2/

My estimates for the impact of Brexit on trade are out. Thread.

Leaving the single market and customs union in January reduced Britain’s total goods trade by £16 bn, or 22%.

cer.eu/insights/cost-… That is on top of a 10% reduction in total trade between the referendum and the end of the transition period, compared to a doppelganger UK that remained in the EU.

Some initial thoughts on the election result. In sum: Brexit will happen, but the economic risks will make it difficult for Johnson to bounce the country into an FTA. 1/n This was no endorsement of Johnson’s FTA. He and Corbyn ensured there was no debate in the campaign about what it entailed. The EU will drive a hard bargain, with level playing field provisions and fishing rights being the demand for a quick and narrow agreement. 2/

My latest on the EU budget and climate change. TLDR: The Common Agricultural Policy is terrible for the climate. (Thread.)

cer.eu/insights/eu-bu… The CAP consumes 37% of the EU budget. But emissions from farming have been flat since 2005, despite the EU spending 20% of the farm budget on climate action.

People I respect often say that economic and political gravity will force the UK into a close relationship with the EU in time. I've made that point myself in the past. But I'm worried that this may not be true. 1/ This is the share of UK and German exports going to the EU since 1948.
The UK's decision to stay out of European integration was very costly, defying trade gravity - the rule that nearby, rich countries will be biggest trade partners. 2/

1. NI in single market for industrial goods and agri-food
2. NI de facto in EU customs union, with rebates for imported goods from UK that are bought by *consumers* in NI (with supply chain checks to be settled later)
(Thread) 3. Consent by majority of MLAs in 2024 = 4 more years of protocol. Consent by dual majority = 8 more years.
4. No alternative arrangements references

Quick thread on my latest cost of Brexit estimate. The economy is 2.9% smaller than it would've been if the ref had gone the other way. 1/ The way the estimate works is this - an algorithm takes economic data from 2009 to the referendum from 22 countries. It selects those countries whose economies are most similar to Britain's. 2/

My latest, thinking through how negotiations between the UK and EU would play out after no deal. cer.eu/insights/how-w… 1/ Any mitigation by the EU will be limited, and will require the UK to sign up to the main provisions of the withdrawal agreement. 2/

.@COdendahl and I have a new paper out on regional economic performance in the EU today. It includes an interactive map of regional productivity across the EU. cer.eu/publications/a… The map shows big differences in regional productivity performance, especially in Germany, Italy and the UK. Compare the city of Manchester with Greater Manchester northwest. The city has a productivity level around that of Denmark. The north-western suburbs, Cyprus.

A reminder that a customs union is not soft Brexit. It only eliminates some tariff costs. The biggest costs of Brexit come from leaving the single market. Have been asked to elaborate. Here goes. Being in the CU would help car manufacturers that import a lot of car components from outside the EU. Think of Nissan, Honda, and Ford. 2/

Right. Have now read the Northern Ireland protocol. The original backstop, which May said no PM would ever sign up to, is largely there. It is complemented by a customs union for the whole UK and EU. That customs union is minimal. As @alexebarker points out, there aren't regulatory agreements (free movement for lorry drivers, absence of vet checks, agrifood regulatory alignment) that allow for no hard border. ft.com/content/6b6f8a…

It's now 2 years since the Brexit vote, and we can tell what the Treasury's much-maligned short-term forecast got right. 1/ It was too negative on output. According to our estimate, the economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been if Britain had voted to Remain. The Treasury's 'shock' scenario had it at 3.5%. cer.eu/insights/cost-…

This was always going to happen (as many of us have been saying for a long time) telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… Whole UK customs deal was always going to be needed past 2020, because there's no hope of getting the infrastructure done in time.