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Johnathan Wood Profile picture
Johnathan Wood
@Johnathan_Wood1
Fan of the Bears, Bulls, Cubs, and Northwestern Wildcats. I write stuff for @DaBearsBlog. College chemistry professor and proud nerd.
Dec 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 Something to keep in mind when talking about the Bears' resources this offseason: they have a TON of needs. Let's start with a look at their current 2023 depth chart, showing every player under contract for 2023 (per Over The Cap). Positions where I am really not happy with the current starter on that list:
RB (at least need a platoon pass catching guy)
WR (VJJ not a starter)
LG
C
RT
DEx2
NT
3T
LB (Sanborn 1, assuming base nickel)
CB (Vildor not a starter)

That's 11 starters needed, at a minimum.
Dec 19, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A note on Fields' passing volume: in his last 9 games, Fields is throwing for 175 yards per game. That's not great - would be just under 3000 yards for a 17 game season. He's been efficient when he throws, but doesn't throw it much. A big reason for the lack of throws is Fields scrambling, often due to combination of poor pass protection + nobody getting open. In the last 9 games, Fields averages 24 passes + 5 scrambles per game. So about 1 in 6 pass plays end with Fields needing to run.
Dec 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Justin Fields was really bad for the first month of the season. 51% completion, 7.0 yds/att, 2 TD/4INT, and only 37 rush yards/gm (4.3 yds/carry).

A switch flipped in MIN game. Now 9 games since: 66% completion, 7.6 yds/att, 13 TD/6 INT, and 95 rush yds/gm (7.8 yds/carry) For a little more context, NFL average is 65% completion, 7.1 yards/attempt, and 1.9 TD/INT (Fields at 2.2 over last 9 games). So Fields has now been an above-average passer for over 2 months.

Fields' NFL ranks if you look at his last 9 games:
CMP %: 16th
YPA: 7th
Rating: 8th
Aug 27, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD:

One thing I've been thinking about in the wake of Javon Wims' cut yesterday: Chicago's offense should be much less predictable based on personnel.

They've been very obvious in terms of run/pass splits based on who's on the field in the past. I've been tracking this for years, but here's the writeup for 2020, when the Bears had 4 players who were obvious run/pass tells.

dabearsblog.com/2021/examining…
Aug 22, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Thread: Whole lot of people using yesterday as an opportunity to say Nagy failed Trubisky, not the other way around. I'm just over here like... no. The Bears' offense has distinct problems that come from both of them. The Bears have frequent issues with getting the play call in on time, confusion lining up, taking delay of game, wasting timeouts to avoid delay of game, too many pre-snap penalties. That's on Nagy.
Aug 21, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Nagy can say all he wants about playing starters more in the preseason, but their WR1, WR2, TE1, LT, RT, and RG all sat today. Of course Andy Dalton looks like shit. He can't elevate backups.

Bears know this and don't care. They clearly already made up their mind about week 1. so what actually happened today that mattered? Not a whole lot, honestly.

All of Chicago's CBs fighting for starting roles had terrible days. Bilal Nichols got hurt. That's about it.
Mar 23, 2021 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD

Here's what people miss when they say "Bears have a ton of cap space next year, they can push money to the future with no issues."

Bears currently slated for just over $60M in cap room in 2022 on Over the Cap. overthecap.com/salary-cap/chi… $60M seems like a lot of money, right?

Well, that doesn't account for the rookies Bears will draft this year, who have contracts that eat into it. We'll say probably $5M, depending on where exactly they end up drafting.

Or 2022 rookies, another $3-10M, depending on picks
Mar 19, 2021 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
If Fuller is traded, new team takes on $14M cap hit, not $20M. That's a big difference in a tight cap year.

But the lack of value for trade is likely because that's still a big number, and teams are feeling the cap crunch this year. Darius Slay got traded for 2nd round pick on an expiring contract last offseason, and promptly signed a new deal paying him nearly $17M per year. Fuller's money is in line for a good CB1, but the market is depressed this year because the cap is about 15% lower than teams planned
Mar 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Wow. The Bears now have two backup defensive linemen set to make more than $2.5M/year over the next 2 years.

That feels really odd considering even their 3rd "starter" is only a starter in base, which is <50% of snaps. Chicago's DL played a total of just under 2600 snaps last year. Hicks (~800) and Nichols (~600) combined for over 1400. If you assume Goldman slots back in at 500-600 snaps, his typical level from 2017-19, that leaves 600-700 combined for backups.
Mar 17, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Nothing that is happening right now with the Bears is a surprise. I wrote this already in June 2020, almost a full calendar year ago.

dabearsblog.com/2020/enjoy-202… I wrote in November that the Bears would need to move on from Fuller and Hicks this offseason. These are basically the only 2 big contracts they can actually get out of right now. I won't be surprised if we hear something about Hicks soon. dabearsblog.com/2020/bears-mus…
Mar 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Why? Legitimately, what's the point?

Dalton/Foles careers stats:

Completion %: 62.2%/62.3%
TD:INT: 1.7/1.9
Yards/attempt: 7.1/6.8
Adjusted net yards/attempt: 6.0/5.9
Passer rating: 87.5/87.1

Why pay $10M you can't afford for a different flavor of the turd you already have? I've been on the "Bears are fucking screwed for the next few years" bandwagon for a while now.

Then Russell Wilson was dangled as a possible miracle.

Looks like that's not happening, so...

Bears are fucking screwed for the next few years.
Nov 17, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Here's the offseason the Bears need to have in 2021. Before I lay it out, understand very clearly the goal is that they are not going to be competitive in 2021, but are aiming for a quick turnaround with a young team in 2022, with their real window coming in 2023-25. 1) Fire Pace. Let new GM decide whether or not to keep Nagy.
2) Trade anybody 30+ who has value (basically Mack, Fuller, Hicks) for some extra mid-round picks. Maybe see if you can give Trevathan, Graham, Whitehair away for late picks if you eat some of their money.
Nov 17, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Ryan Pace mortgaged the future this past offseason to go all in on 2020 because he thought this was a Super Bowl contender. They have very little cap flexibility for 2021 without moving a lot more money down the line in ways that will hurt them worse in 2022-23. The Bears are officially at a point where they need to take their medicine next year. Absorb the cap problems, don't spend in FA, sell off anybody aging who has value (Mack, Fuller, Hicks), draft for the future. Hope to be competitive again in 2022.
Nov 9, 2020 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Thread: I know everybody wants a big Bears reset this offseason, but the truth is they're pretty limited in what they'll be able to do with their personnel. Currently projected with about $1.5M in cap room, and that's with only 34 players under contract. Prominent free agents include

Allen Robinson
Roy Robertson-Harris
Mitchell Trubisky
Mario Edwards
Tashaun Gipson
Germain Ifedi

All their other key players are under contract for 2021.
Nov 8, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Allen Robinson has to run that route to the sticks. WR error on his part. and Robinson's mistake comes back to bite the Bears, as they can't convert on the ensuing 4th and 1 after they should have picked up the easy 1st down.
Sep 14, 2020 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Dug into the lineup data to see how Bears used their TEs yesterday. Not going to focus too much on efficiency because it's a lot of small sample sizes, more on what they tried to do. Bears had 3 TEs on the field for 11 snaps yesterday, and threw it on 7 of those. Looks like they were trying to catch the defense thinking run and exploit that.

They had 10 plays with 2 TEs, and ran it 8 times. That's about what you'd expect for a jumbo package.
May 30, 2020 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Here's the most important, and most difficult thing, for white people like me to accept about George Floyd: his murder wasn't a tragic isolated incident by one lone wolf bad police officer. That event (like so many others that have captured national attention in the last few years) reflects the nationwide problem of a police force - and criminal justice system - that does absolutely nothing to serve or protect African Americans. This is the norm, not an exception
Jul 19, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I've been thinking a lot about Chicago's week 2 game in Denver and how they can best approach it to avoid getting beat by the altitude. Denver is notoriously difficult to beat at home early in the season because of that altitude advantage. The basic science behind altitude isn't complex: at higher elevation, there's less oxygen, so your body can't do as much. Your body can adjust by changing chemical levels in your blood, but that takes a few days.