One element is certainly changing our Grida: the rise of large-scale batteries. A short thread to introduce a longer post I am writing.

1/13

Here is the project of Engie Belgium. First, what we are witnessing in Europe is a massive growth of utility-scale projects, and actually a reduction of home batteries.

Large scale has increased from 3.6 GWh to 11 GWh new capacity installed in 2024 (source: @SolarPowerEU )

2/13

Dunkelflaute for tomorrow.

936 €/MWh in Germany and Denmark at 5 PM.

Even during the energy crisis of 2022, day-ahead prices have never been so high.

The difference with France, Poland, and the Nordics is striking.

1/4 And the daily average is close to 400 €/MWh.

This is 9 times the price of natural gas. Quite a stretch.

2/4

The rise of solar and its impact on electricity markets.

Here is an overview of a presentation that I am making. A thread 🧵

First, solar is now very cheap...

1/14 ... that's why we plan to install a lot of it.

Installed peak power in the EU will be
•Above 300 GW in 2024.
•Above 500 GW in 2027.
•About 750 GW in 2030 (EU objective).

EU load is about 300 GW.

2/14

Solar Capture Rate is defined as the weighted average of solar production by the (day-ahead) market prices. It gives the price that solar would get if sold on the market.

A tour of Europe of the last few years and some reflections. 🧵

1/10 As solar pushes market price down and as solar is concentrated on few hours (especially if you are from the Equateur), the effect can be quite fast.

We have several countries that have a solar capacity equal of higher than load in afternoon (Germany, the Netherlands).

2/10

Renewables should provide power reserves, not just energy.

Why? Because it could be profitable.

How? I explain here in a thread.

This is from my new post, you can have the long version by reading it (link in my bio).

1/11 First, market revenues of renewables are declining, and fast for solar.

This year, in Spain, three months with a capture price for solar of 10 €/MWh on average.

France, below 30 €/MWh since April.

Germany, around 40 €/ MWh since April.

2/11

There are more and more negative prices in the electricity markets.

Paying others to consume something is like considering it as "trash". Does not seem logical.

So, here is a thread with the reasons for negative prices. 🧵

1/11 First, let's be clear, negative prices are increasingly present when solar is generating (at least in Germany, see below)

Here is a distribution of the number of negative price per hour. Already more negative prices in 2024 than previous years.

2/11

What's the marginal cost of wind and solar ? We tend to say that it is zero, but is that correct?

At what price should they bid?

A thread 🧵to introduce the reflection (to be explored more)

(Idea from a colleague)

1/8 First, let's skip all the cases where wind and solar are bidding at negative prices because of the support schemes (whatever it is). Let's consider a wind and solar plant that is fully bidding on day-ahead markets

What should they bid ?

2/

The missing piece of the energy transition is long term storage

We have everything else, from very cheap sources, batteries to dampen short variations, to improved tech to transmit and manage the grid.

But, long term storage is the missing piece.

1/ By long term, I rërë to a storage that would do a few cycles only per year max.

If you take Europe, you have virtually no solar in months (10x more in July than December in Germany).

And wind is great, but would it be enough? I doubt it. Hello dunkelflaute.

2/

Fun day today in EU power markets.

Due to a Partial decoupling, a local Auction has been done for the countries below.

A little tour of the local results 🧵 Germany: hello prices at +2000 €/MWh. Peak prices being really really high ...

Peaker plants to be remunerated nicely.

Have you noticed recently how peak hours have been in Europe ? Simple, very high. But why? How?

A quick thread 🧵

1. Prices for tomorrow at 8 PM.

Peak in Poland at 290 €/MWh. Germany and Southern Nordics at 200 €/MWh.

1/8 Hungary as well at 275 €/MWh.

Pretty flat and then, boum a peak.

2/8

Germany under the sun. Summary of my new post in a thread.

Everything you need to know about the recent data on solar in Germany.

Capacity, concentration, negative prices and capture rate. A rapid look.

Check my site for the long post - link in bio.

Let's explore

1/13 First. Solar is in its second wave in Germany.

More than 1 GW per month installed since 2023 (summer load is 50 GW in Germany).

The current installation rate is about 10x the one of 2014/2018.

Target for 2030: 215 GW. Possible if we keep the same installation rate.

2/13

Solar in Germany - an update of the impact with data up to May 2024. A 🧵

This is an extract of my post to be published soon (subscribe to it, link in bio if you want).

First, solar is booming. More than 1 GW per month currently. +50% in 3 years.

1/10 But solar is really concentrated. On 14 May, record of 47 GW ("only" compared to a peak installed cap, of 80+).

In winter, you have some days when solar barely goes above 1 GW.

2/10

The challenge of distributed solar for our European electricity grids and markets. A thread 🧵

It is a great success but it is not without consequence.

And we can fix the issue. Let's explore.

1/12 Most important element: many households and small business still receive a fixed amount per kWh, whatever the market value of solar. Tariffs for new PV is now 8.1 c€/kWh (for 20 years !) while the market value was only 3.8 c€/kWh in April 2024 (see below).

2/12

Wind is complementary to solar.

I am sure that you have heard that many times. Is it true ? Well, it depends on how you look at data. Let's find out together with a specific case: Germany 2023. 🧵

First, the monthly generation presents some nice "stability".

1/8 Of course, this complementary depends on the installed capacity. As solar is growing faster now than wind, we might have a different picture.

If you have Germany with half wind / half solar (in energy produced), the picture is already quite different.

2/8

Day-ahead prices are low today in Europe.

Here is for Germany. Going down to -120 €/MWh.

With these prices, you have much less flexible gas power plants running. And price for flex can be very high.

A short thread 🧵

1/4 As I explained here, you have 30 GW more must run supply in the market.

Consequence of not forcing solar to stop producing during negative hours.



2/4linkedin.com/posts/julien-j…

You think that it is not right when people use LCOE to compare solar and nuclear?

You are right. But you should extend the reasoning behind that to all aspects

The core reason is the time-varying nature of the electricity value.

Let's explore 🧵

1/11 Historically, the electricity value was quite constant. When you burn stuff, the cost is relatively flat. See here for a random week in Germany 2017. For days, the hourly price does not vary more than 5 €/MWh

(but it crashed already in the weekend as we burned less)

2/11

/1/The rise of large-scale batteries.

If you are in the power sector, large-scale batteries are set to change grid operations, as their ramp rates are extremely high.

They will cover all power reserve needs in the coming years.

Let's discuss in a 🧵

1/6
1 Batteries are coming, fast, in large quantities and bigger.

Here, is a project for 600 MW in Belgium (4-hour storage).

2/6

I love the hydrogen ladder from @MLiebreich. If you do not know it, please have a look.

I think that besides the first line and probably steel + chem. feedstock, hydrogen will simply not be used (at least in my career and I am 35).

Let's discuss one: Long-term storage 🧵
1/8 Long-term storage for electricity is our ability to save some energy in one month and give it back a few months later.

Often forgotten, we do already have that in Europe. It is called hydro with reservoirs. Collectively we can store around 2 weeks worth of consumption.

2/8

Right in time for spring ;-)

605 MW: what could be the impact of such project on capture rate for solar?

Let's calculate together

1/5

pv-magazine.com/2024/04/10/eur… Using this formula:

605 MW : around 600 GWh, 0.12% of market share gained.

Capture rate to decrease by 0.00468.

Capture rate in 2023 was 0.756, so, it will impact it by 0.62%.

2/5

https://twitter.com/LionHirth/status/1691347083687546881

Rooftop solar in Germany is going to have a massive impact on electricity markets.

It is expected that close to 96 GW of solar will be installed.

And this is rooftop solar is very inflexible.

1/5 It is inflexible because you will receive a fixed amount independent of the markt price. From 6 to 13 c€/kWh, depending on the size and if you auto-consume or not.

2/5

Th most challenging part of a decarbonized grid will be to manage the total energy (both surplus and deficit) on a weekly and monthly level.

Hourly and even daily variations will be challenging but we have the solutions. A short thread 🧵

1/10 Wind and solar have great potential for combination. There are many factors but more or less, they have some complementarity (see here for Germany 2023).

2/10