I wrote about the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report on union membership in the US. By the numbers, we're still quite firmly in an era of union decline, with *almost* every union, every industry, and every state facing more or less dramatic declines in unionism.

https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1617220679090192388

I think there are plenty of ways to think differently about the US labor movement; the militant minority may be growing, unionism is extending into new sectors, the changing shape of the economy at large is a huge factor. But the bigger, decades-long context is that of decline.

What Congress just did is make a rail strike illegal. They didn't make it impossible. From what I've seen, I wouldn't bet on a wildcat, but I wouldn't have bet on an illegal statewide West Virginia teachers sparking a national strike wave in 2018, either. The microcosm of the US labor movement here is that every incentive now points to taking an individual way out -- collect your three years of backpay and the contract bonus, and go find another job.
The collective version -- risk it all to shut it down -- is a path rarely taken.

People need to understand that we’ve reached this point in rail bargaining because of a failed union strategy to rely entirely on Democratic Party leadership to get a deal, and to avoid anything that could threaten that strategy, from progressive legislation to going on strike What happened today was the tail end of years of a union plan to hope the Democratic Party leadership would deliver. Biden sold them out, and they had no Plan B. Progressives scrambled to come up with a Plan B. Union leaders got on board when the Biden path had closed, not before

Full sellout from the White House for the majority of rail workers who rejected the deal the President brokered, preemptively denying them the right to strike.

This was the “which side are you on?” moment, and the White House chose the railroad bosses.

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… It is exceedingly rare in the US for the White House to have direct control over union negotiations. This one was a layup. Put forward a bill to include paid sick days. Costs the rail carriers a fraction of their insane profits. Improves freight rail service. And Biden refuses.

This! This is the most damning thing. The entire rail union strategy was “wait til the Democrats are in charge, they’ll get us a good deal.” And then the Democrats came up with a deal that 80% of rail workers can’t live with. And now there’s nowhere left to go but the picket line

https://twitter.com/JeffSchuhrke/status/1570246667164856320

And precisely *because* the rail union leadership strategy was “hope the Dems get us a good deal” they are in a totally deferential relationship to the party, especially with midterms coming up. Their strategy was to buddy up so they can’t now outright say “man, the Dems blew it”

"Three dozen" workers showed up to a protest at Boeing in Auburn, WA. The company employs over 5,000 workers at that location.

But I guess that's what counts for a rebellion these days?

Meanwhile, 15,000 workers are on strike across the country for wages and working conditions.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1455502512023343106

It seems to me this is a blue collar rebranding of a longstanding anti-Federal government politics. That doesn't mean it's not real; lots of workers won't take the vaccine.

New Deere contract vote is today. We will likely know results late tonight. I would bet $1 (but only $1) that it passes.

Notably, strikers have *not* seen actual contract language on most items.

UAW members, let me know how your ratification meetings go. What’s behind a potential no vote?

1) Deere has more money to spend, and members know it. The 10% raise, though impressive, represents less than 1% of Deere’s *profits* over the past year.

2) Wages still won’t be that great. By 2027, most will be making $25.25 hourly.

Whatever else happens, it’s pretty amazing that 10,000 workers struck a Fortune 100 company and got an immediate 10% raise and saved the pension for all new hires. Deere and the UAW leaders said 5% and no new pensions was acceptable? And the members overwhelmingly said it was not.

And then they struck and doubled the offer. If workers fight back together, you can win a battle against corporate America.

Take it with a grain of salt, but there’s a text message exchange circulating on Facebook that details supposed highlights of the new Deere tentative agreement, from someone present at negotiations. If it’s legit, the new TA contains… — An immediate 10% raise (up from 5%), plus 5% in 2023, and 5% in 2025, so 20% over 6 years (up from 11-12%).

— new hires will have option of pension or 401k benefit. So *sounds like* they killed the third tier, but devil is in the details.

No new tier, better wages. Wins.

Got my hands on another proprietary Wall Street analyst's report on what they think about the potential tentative agreement at Deere. Here are a few quotes that stood out to me: "The most significant issue will be whether Deere was willing to back down from the tier wage & benefit system. I'm not suggesting greater wage hikes aren't needed too, but the main sticking point is the tiered hires."

Here's a thread I'll keep updating of Deere strikers' responses to the question:

What would make you vote "yes" on this new tentative agreement? What would make you vote "no"?

https://twitter.com/Tobyhall75/status/1454498784117936135

Long thread, but important: John Deere workers have reached out to me frustrated about media repeating company talking points that workers make 60-70k a year. One who's been there over a decade showed me what they made in 2020: Under $40k. So let’s talk about wages at John Deere. First of all, the pandemic caused layoffs, for which workers were not paid by Deere. Layoffs even in normal times are not uncommon. Deere’s “$60k/year” figure is based on working 2200 hours; that’s over 42 hours per week for 52 weeks in a year.

For anyone just catching up on the 10,000 worker UAW strike at John Deere -- the largest strike in the US in two years -- here's how you can get up to speed, based on what I've written for @labornotes: @labornotes In early September, Deere presented a disastrously bad first offer to the membership. They likely wanted to lower expectations by super-lowballing them, but ended up pissing everybody off, and members authorized a strike by 99%.

labornotes.org/2021/09/ten-th…

It's on. Dubuque

From a salary worker @ Deere:

"The Deere "strikebreakers" are currently ~650 salary employees pulled from engineering & mgmt positions across Deere. Note: I say "Strikebreakers" because I can guarantee that with our lack of skill and numbers, we will not be breaking the strike." "To my knowledge, most of us will be allocated to the Milan Parts center. Deere's spent an enormous amount of time, money, & effort trying to get us all trained, but not many of us are really ready for this. We'll be working 12 hour shifts, 6 days/week, with day & night shifts."

Just got this beautiful (anonymous) testimony from a John Deere worker:

"We know it's not going to be easy, but we are all ready. This is only 2nd contract for many (a lot of new hires in 2010 & 11). I know I was there 6 years ago. People were angry then. We were ready then..." "This time, so much different. There is much more anger. We are tired. We are tired of making pennies. Tired of spending more time in the building then with our family. We have given them so much of our life. So many more are thinking of their future..."

This week I wrote a bunch of stories for Labor Notes, all righteous union fights:

A thread 🧵 On 10,000 union members at John Deere's fight for a fair contract, as trust erodes between members and the UAW International after years of corruption and concessionary contracts, and as the company tries to eliminate the pension and give meager raises:

labornotes.org/2021/10/surpri…