CEO/CIO at https://t.co/BgU67oTYtX (@LuptonCapital) - Signup for my investment service at https://t.co/Z2k5DpcCBj (Substack)
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Feb 15 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Last summer when $SMCI had a market cap below $10B I thought the stock could 5x over the next 5 years.
I didn’t expect the stock to 5x over the next 8 months.
I came into the year with a 13.5% position in $SMCI.
$SMCI is up more then 250% YTD
I’ve been trimming my position by 6-8% everyday for the past 2-3 weeks but the position barely shrank because the stock was going up by 6-8% every day (or more).
The last few days my trimming has gotten more aggressive.
Today as $SMCI started approaching $1,000 per share which was my price target by the end of 2025 it was time to get very aggressive with the trimming.
Today I sold approx 40% of my $SMCI position to get my current position below 10% for the first time since last summer.
I loved $SMCI in the $100s and $200s. I liked $SMCI in the $300s and $400s. I could justify holding $SMCI in the $500s, $600s and $700s but now that $SMCI is above $1,000+ the risk/reward is no longer in my favor especially with $NVDA earnings next week.
I will continue trimming my position if the stock goes higher, I’d probably be out completely at $1150+
I also bought some April puts today just to hedge part of my remaining position in case we get a big pullback into $NVDA earnings or because of $NVDA earnings.
I don’t love trimming my highest conviction stocks this quickly but I didn’t really have a choice. Paying the tax man won’t be fun but watching your gains disappear is even less fun.
Now that I’m up 75% YTD it’s all about protecting my gains. Thank you $SMCI for an amazing year. Hopefully I can stack a few more big winners over the next 45 weeks.
Kudos to anyone that has held most of their $SMCI from the $200s when I was loading up and banging the table. It’s been a fun ride for all of us.
If you made money on $SMCI please consider subscribing to my investment service at
It’s only $36 per month or $360 per year.
You not only get all my research (deep dives, mini deep dives and earnings analysis) but you get access to my exact investment portfolio, daily activity and daily notes/commentary.
You are legit getting me for 50-60 hours per week when you add it all up.
If you want the live chat and some alerts then I’d recommend the seeking alpha service which also includes my trading portfolio and morning newsletter…
If you want a shot at owning stocks that 10x over the next 3-5 years like $NVDA and $CELH then you need to figure out which companies are going to crush the current estimates over the next few years.
Here are the FY2024-2027 estimates for $NVDA from 3 years ago (Sept 2020) and where they are now (August 2023)...
FY2024 = $25.6B >> $53.9B
FY2025 = $29.8B >> $74.8B
FY2026 = $34.5B >> $91.5B
FY2027 = $34.7B >> $110.6B
With regards to $CELH, in February 2021 the analysts thought $CELH would do $300M in 2023, now those estimates are up to $1.25B with a couple analysts at $1.3B
Back in March 2021, the analysts thought $CELH would do $438.3M in 2024, now those estimates are up to $1.72B
In October 2021, the analysts thought $CELH would do $941M in 2025, now those estimates are up to $2.4B
Any thoughts on which companies might be next?
These higher estimate trends for $ELF are also very impressive...
Jan 24, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Just added to my $ALB position pre-market at $258
Last night $ALB announced preliminary Q4 results but more importantly they also provided some very bullish 2023 guidance which is above current estimates.
Q4 adjusted EPS $8.35-$8.75 vs consensus $7.66
Q4 revenue $2.59B-$2.65B vs consensus $2.61B
FY22 EPS $21.65-$22.05 vs consensus $21.03
FY22 revenue view to $7.29B-$7.35B from $7.1B-$7.4B, vs consensus $7.36B.
Jun 23, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I know that lots of investors on FinTwit know me as the $CELH bull so let me share a very meaningful development over the past few days (but it’s been brewing for several months).
Pepsi has terminated their distribution agreement with BANG which is good news for @CelsiusOfficial
A couple years ago BANG ditched their Anheuser Busch distributors after they struck a deal with Pepsi which required that Pepsi buyout Rockstar to get out of that exclusive distribution agreement (what a mess for Pepsi, they just keep compounding their mistakes).
2nd annual @FinTwitConf starts in exactly 7 days in Las Vegas.
I just talked to @Benzinga and I believe we're adding breakfast to the Friday morning schedule so now the tickets include 4 premium buffet meals plus the cocktail party.
To the person (or people) stealing my pictures from social media, creating fake accounts on IG and then trying to scam people… I hope you fall in the shower tonight and break every bone in your body. Getting hit by a bus would also be very cool. Scumbags!!!
One of my friends just sent the screenshots from their conversation because she thought it was me at first 🤦🏻♂️
Apr 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Our friends at @CelsiusOfficial just dropped another new flavor.
Last weekend it was STRAWBERRY LEMONADE which I’ve tried and it’s delicious…this weekend the new flavor is ARCTIC VIBE which you can find on Amazon amazon.com/dp/B09X22BTZT/…
I also ordered two other flavors that I’ve never tried yet.. CUCUMBER LIME and ORANGE POMEGRANATE
Hey @TobyDavid — I’m gonna see that @CelsiusOfficial cooler for the 8 cases that I now have piled up in my closet 😂
Apr 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Elon Musk did more for Twitter's stock price in one day than Jack Dorsey did in 8+ years.
PS: I respect Jack but here is $TWTR's stock price since their IPO in November 2013 -- the charts don't lie :)
Mar 19, 2022 • 5 tweets • 6 min read
If you made lots of money in the markets this week, treat yourself to a Vegas trip for the @FinTwitConf on May 13-14.
If you didn't make lots of money this week, invest in yourself and come to Vegas for the @FinTwitConf so our speakers can teach you.
Another 15+ speakers will be announced next week :)
Mar 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
Only 5 more days to buy your @FinTwitConf tickets at the discounted price of $279 which includes 3 premium buffet meals plus the cocktail party: fintwit2022.com
If you want to be a sponsor please DM me -- we have room for a few more.
Mar 15, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
One of my favorite growth stocks reported last night and confirmed my long term conviction in the growth story, the business model and the management team.
The company is $DLO @dLocalPayments and they enable payments in emerging markets like South America, Africa and Asia.
Let’s say you are Microsoft or Netflix or Salesforce and want to sell your products and services across the globe but don’t want to deal with dozens of different payment methods, currencies and tax reporting requirements — $DLO does all of this for them.
The full schedule with all speakers and sessions should be posted by the end of next week but I assure you we'll have two full days of awesomeness
For the next 20 days we're doing an early bird special:
$279 for the 2-day pass
$159 for the 1-day pass
Both days include 2 meals so most of your food will be covered by the tickets
If you're bringing someone to the cocktail party on Friday night you can just pay $70 at the door
Feb 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I just heard this from a close friend that has a very reliable source in Ukraine —
apparently Ukraine is letting prisoners out, arming them with AK-47s and putting them on the front lines to fight Russian forces.
I have no way of confirming whether this is true — it could certainly be a fabricated lie to scare the Russian soldiers.
Feb 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
If you're going to be adding on these bloody days (which I'm doing), I suggest adding to the companies that posted the best earnings reports and issued strong guidance for 2022 because once we find a bottom and bounce it's those companies that will be the new market leaders.
Just to put this into context, I spent approx 1/3 of my cash over the past two days adding to my favorite stocks at the most reasonable valuations where I see 50% upside potential over the next 12-18 months ie $CELH $UPST $SWAV $GLBE $CROX $SE $STEM $UBER $DLO $DOCN $CRWD
Feb 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$SNAP was down 24% after hours on the back of those disappointing $FB earnings
$SNAP is now back to the IPO price from March 2017 with the VWAP from the IPO at $24.66 -- $SNAP got down to $25.11 after hours
I started positions after hours in $FB at $247 and $SNAP at $25.40
After hours, $FB basically bounced off the VWAP from the December 2018 lows which is $245.85
$SI is 55% off the ATH from November; trading at just 28x 2022 EPS w/ rev growth in the 55% range.
$SI is a great way to invest in the growth of crypto assets, crypto banking and crypto-backed lending.
Last year $SI announced a partnership with $FB's Diem project (formerly Libra) diem.com/en-us/updates/…
Last week $FB announced plans to shut down Diem and sell the assets to $SI for $200 million. This could provide some substantial upside in the future coindesk.com/business/2022/…
Jan 24, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
This is ugly :(
Maybe we should all go back to bed
Jan 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I finally bought myself an air fryer so I can do more cooking at home — I’ve honestly never used one before so I’m kind of excited and kind of scared.
Any tips/recommendations would be greatly appreciated 😋
Here we go 😬
Jan 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Here you go, the most recent sales data from $CELH ...to say they're still crushing it would be a understatement.
Assuming this growth carries into 2022 (and it should) they're going to smash the current revenue estimates of $488 million. I think they do closer to $600 million.
$CELH will get more shelf space and cooler space in 2022 with 120,000+ approved locations doing their resets plus they're still adding more locations, more DSD partners and more branded coolers!!
$CELH beat Q3 estimates by 30% then dropped 50% but this growth story is not over.