Some scattered PA election thoughts as we wait for polls to close, starting with the big Senate race:

Still a ton of uncertainty about the outcome from people in both parties I spoke with in the last 48 hours. Both sides acknowledge it could easily go either way. Republicans sounded a *bit* more confident than Dems on the Senate race ... if only because of the direction of travel the last few weeks.

But again, no one would shocked if Oz or Fetterman won

Jeff Bartos - former Oz GOP rival, now Oz campaign chair - tells a story that he says shows a different side of Oz (and obviously he's an interested party here) ...
inquirer.com/politics/elect… It was early May, Bartos was weeks removed from thyroid surgery, exhausted + driving himself across PA for campaign events.
In the NW corner of the state one Sat night, he planned to drive halfway home, so he could get back to Montgomery County for Mothers Day ...

With the PA Gov race trending more and more Democratic, Mehmet Oz will likely need "Shapiro-Oz" voters to win.

There's not much sign of them so far - but he's pushing with a string of events in Philly, PGH and the suburbs:
inquirer.com/politics/elect… Oz seems to be trying to follow the path Pat Toomey carved in 2016 - when he far outperformed Trump in the Philly suburbs.

He's even using Toomey as a surrogate in Philly and Pittsburgh:
inquirer.com/politics/elect…

If you're looking for insight into the #PASen Q3 fundraising (and honestly, on a nice fall Sat. morning I truly hope you're not) - here are some details, in the story and coming in this thread:
inquirer.com/news/senate-pe… R Sean Parnell - now with Trump's endorsement - nearly doubled his initial fundraising, and raised more from donors ($1m) than all his GOP rivals combined.

(though others still have more cash overall):
inquirer.com/news/senate-pe…

A new Senate reports puts a heavy focus on PA Rs Scott Perry and Doug Mastriano and their efforts to pressure DOJ to investigate PA's election results.
Here's what it says about them:
inquirer.com/news/scott-per… Perry, trying to promote an ally within DOJ, told the acting AG Jeffrey Clark was “the kind of guy who could really get in there and do something about this”
inquirer.com/news/scott-per…

PA has to lose a congressional seat.

Me and @Elaijuh run down what districts might go, which incumbents could be at risk, and how the ripple effect could affect the delegation and balance of power in DC:
inquirer.com/politics/penns… @Elaijuh Some early analysis:
- GOP districts in the northern/central part of the state could be targeted for consolidation
- BUT - doing so could push conservative turf into some Dem swing districts, giving the GOP a chance to win a seat back
inquirer.com/politics/penns…

Toomey: "a lawless attempt to retain power by a president was one of the founder’s greatest fears" Toomey: "The First Amendment does not grant to anyone the license to incite violence and break other laws"

Dean and Bruce Castor are nearly the same age and grew up just miles apart in suburban Philly.

They're very different.
w/@jeremyrroebuck
inquirer.com/politics/penns… @jeremyrroebuck It's surely no coincidence that a PA Rep is on the impeachment team.
The state was one of the few at the very center of Trump's attempt to overturn the election results.

Republicans said this weekend that Trump suddenly took a darker turn after the election.

In Oct. - days after we found out about a plot to kidnap Gov. Whitmer - he attacked her at a rally and his supporters chanted “lock her up” 1/
reuters.com/article/us-usa… Whitmer said then “This is exactly the rhetoric that has put me, my family, and other government officials’ lives in danger while we try to save the lives of our fellow Americans,” 2/
reuters.com/article/us-usa…

PAs @SenToomey (R) on Meet the Press says Trump should resign - says there isn’t time for an impeachment (though has said Trump has committed “impeachable offenses”)

“The best way for our country is for the president to resign and go away as soon as possible.” Toomey - like some other Rs - says Trumps behavior after turned worse after the election
“it's important to make a distinction between the president's behavior prior to the election & his behavior after the election...After the election, he took this to an entire different place”

PAs Dan Meuser now speaking against PAs electors.

"The lawlessness and violence of today must be condemned … nevertheless a large number of PA-ans are enormously frustrated with the actions" of the PA Gov, Sec'y of State, Supreme Court Rep Joyce (R., PA) condemns "dark acts that transpired in this chamber today" but says "This has always been about upholding the law, it’s always been about protecting gov’t of, by and for the people"

PAs @SenToomey (R) speaking now:
"I rise to defend the right of my citizens, my constituents to vote in the presidential election - and let’s be clear, that’s exactly what this objection is about" @SenToomey Toomey notes one of objectors big complains is state Sup. Ct extending mail ballot deadline - but notes that affected only 10k ballots that HAVE NOT been included in the vote count.

"How could we possibly invalidate the entire PA election over 10k votes" not even included?

Debate now resuming in the House And after a few minutes of resumed debate the House chamber is again in lockdown. House members told to stay in their seats.

A little bit here on the challenge to PAs electors today ....

First, there are *3* known criminal cases right now involving voter fraud in PA this year. Out of nearly 7m votes cast.
All involving individual votes. All ID'd by local DAs, not the Trump campaign 1/ Republicans, though, are also arguing that Gov/Sec'y of State/state Supreme Court exceeded the law in setting election guidelines.

These claims have been litigated and defeated in court - with 1 very small exception on some mail ballots 2/

8 Pa Republicans in Congress plan to join the push today to overturn their state’s election results and disenfranchise millions of Pennsylvanians.

They say they object to election procedures; challenges to those procedures have been rejected in court
inquirer.com/politics/elect… Both Pa Senators oppose the push to throw out the state’s electors.

“I intend to vigorously defend our form of government by opposing this effort to disenfranchise millions of voters in my state and others,” said @SenToomey
inquirer.com/politics/elect…

Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes, exceeding the 44,292-vote margin Trump won in 2016.
With the result certified, me and @Elaijuh look at the numbers behind the results.

It begins with a huge Dem suburban surge:
inquirer.com/politics/elect… In every one of PAs 67 counties voters cast more votes for president than in 2016.

Ranging from a 1.8% increase in Centre County (Penn State) to a nearly 25% bump in Pike County (NEPA)
inquirer.com/politics/elect…

Pennsylvania, the state where Joe Biden spent his childhood years, seals his victory, and ascent to the presidency.
Me and @JuliaTerruso first rip at history:
inquirer.com/politics/elect… @JuliaTerruso Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania and with it, the presidency, attaining the nation’s highest office as the capstone to a life shaped by a remarkable public career and personal tragedy.
inquirer.com/politics/elect…

This is how big the Philly suburbs were for Biden:
He is +283,061 votes in Bucks, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery Counties

That's +94,708 (and counting) vs Clinton.
A 50% (!!!) increase over her margin And Clinton did GREAT in the suburbs.

Dem margins in Philly burbs:
20: 283,061
16: 188,353
12: 123,327

More than doubled in 2 elections.

While we wait, I've been thinking about a few voters who, to me, capture why Biden is at this point.
Their #1 priority, above any policy goal, was a sense of stability, decency, competence.
In fact, some actively opposed big, bold plans b/c they wanted calm
Examples: 1/ At a Beto event back in March 2019, when lots of Dems were talking about Green New Deal or Medicare for All, one PA woman said her priority was "Mentally rational human being with empathy would be a good start,” 2/
inquirer.com/news/trump-dem…

A snapshot from Erie, Pa, seen as a bellwether for the entire state:
Trump leads by about 3600 votes.
There are 11,300 mail ballots to count - and they hope to finish by 8 pm.
Biden winning about 78% of mail votes.
If that continues, he’ll narrowly win the county Erie is seen as a microcosm of Pa and the vote here seems no different.
A traditionally Dem area, It saw a huge swing to Trump in 2016, and he won it narrowly.
It appears to have swung back - but by a smaller amount.
Biden on track for a tight win, but nothing like Ds in 2018

Good morning. In PA, here's where Biden's hopes hang:
He has won 77% of mail ballots counted so far.
There are 1.4m left to count.

IF - if - that pace continues, he'd net a 787k edge - and is trailing by 657k
(and since much of blue PA is left to count, poss he might exceed 77%) On the Chester County question - a key suburb that looks tied, but that Biden expected to win big - a smart R says he thinks Biden's number climbs big, that he still wins a big margin there