Australia has relatively high state capacity.

That is, our administrative state is unusually effective.

This deserves study, but I was surprised to find that very little had been directly written on the topic.

So the economist Peter Bowers and I produced a literature review.🧵 (I should note that we think of our review as a draft / working paper. It was originally prepared in a short timeframe in preparation for my podcast with Steve Hamilton and Richard Holden. It's likely we've overlooked important sources. We'd be grateful for any suggestions.)

One thing I hadn't properly appreciated about America's inadequate economic response to the pandemic was just how much its policies were constrained by broken economic plumbing.

Two stories shed light on this:

(1/4) In contrast, Australia's robust economic plumbing enabled a much more effective economic policy response:

(2/4)

I speak with @stephen_wolfram on the podcast. A 4.5-hour conversation!

In the thread below, I share 32 specific moments I found especially insightful.

Enjoy!

Spotify:
Apple Podcasts:
Website:

(1/34) spoti.fi/3QLfzg1
apple.co/3QLUxxQ
bit.ly/44l5Gsy
@stephen_wolfram on how technology often precedes science, and what that might (or might not) imply for the future of the computational paradigm.

Full transcript here: .

(2/34) josephnoelwalker.com/148-stephen-wo…

Had a lot of fun speaking with @PalmerLuckey in Sydney.

Topics/questions we discuss in the thread below. Enjoy!

Website: bit.ly/3V9aGNO
Spotify: bit.ly/3L6596c
Apple Podcasts: bit.ly/41ZDcUE

(1/5) Topics we discuss include:
- @nealstephenson's hieroglyph theory of sci-fi
- how long until VR is virtually indistinguishable from reality
- the biggest lessons Palmer learned working with @ID_AA_Carmack
- whether the US government is reverse-engineering UFOs
- 'uplift'

(2/5)

Had the pleasure of interviewing Daniel Kahneman in New York. An absolute mensch.

Topics we discussed in the thread below.

Website: bit.ly/3zWo8Lx
Spotify: spoti.fi/3GJp1e4
Apple Podcasts: apple.co/3UxZ5YF

(1/6) We discussed:
- The biggest thing Michael Lewis missed in The Undoing Project
- Are pairs the fundamental creative unit?
- Should we be short @PTetlock's ideas as innovation or complexity increases?
- To what extent biases & heuristics are products of culture not biology

(2/6)

Peter Thiel presents a new explanation for the Great Stagnation: in the mid-twentieth century, drably dystopian narratives about science and technology began seeping into the culture.

People don't want to feel as if they're building the machines that will destroy the world. 1/3 Dystopian narratives have been facilitated by the dual-use nature of so many modern technologies.

For example, Thiel sees the turning point on nuclear power as 1975, when India got the bomb after the US transferred it nuclear technology. 2/3

Below is a thread on why lockdowns need not be "economic suicide" as Steve Waterson described them in a recent article (theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/natio…).

I'm no expert, merely synthesizing what I've learned. If errors exist, they are mine and I would love for you to point them out. 1/ I'm going to focus on Australia. Australia is not under a national lockdown. Rather, we have a collection of state-based lockdowns (pictured below; source: The Australian), which emerged in a piecemeal fashion through mid-to-late March 2020, with Federal backing. 2/

Below is a quick thread on why a short, sharp, sheer shutdown of 4-5 weeks will be effective and desirable, based on my conversations with @yaneerbaryam and others over the past weeks.

First, why are ~4 weeks enough to do the trick? 1/n The incubation period for COVID-19 lasts up to 14 days. With all citizens in lockdown, you need 14 days to identify and isolate the people who were infected just before lockdown began.

In a lockdown, the only other people they can infect are their cohabitants (eg family). 2/n