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Josh Rosenau Profile picture
Josh Rosenau
@JoshRosenau
Nature-poker, mountain lion defender, climate hawk, evolution fan. he/him @joshrosenau@mstdn.science https://t.co/FSX8Ew0rRe @joshrosenau.bsky.social
Mar 3, 2023 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
This by @KatzOnEarth makes a crucial point that gets glossed over in 99% of #OriginsOfCovid discourse. There’s no unitary “lab leak theory.” There’s nothing that generates testable predictions (a necessity for something to be science). theracket.news/p/there-is-no-… The Trump/Pompeo State Department had a whole special stovepiped team dedicated to claiming COVID was a Chinese government bioweapon released on purpose. Or maybe by accident. But probably at the World Military Games.
Mar 1, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Truly nothing I wrote to Mr. Barkan is a) accusing anyone of lying or b) politically polarized. @RossBarkan could obviously delete this, apologize, and respond to my request for a scientific basis for his conclusions (and rejecting the findings of 5 other intel agencies). Image To be very clear, here’s what I wrote. Each tweet specifically focuses on evidence rather than partisan alignment of the issue. The only one polarizing the discussion is @RossBarkan. I’m not accusing DOE of lying, but Barkan is. I expect better of @NYMag and @thenation writers. ImageImageImage
Mar 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Oh wow, Trump’s stooge agrees with Trump. I’m sure the FBI has a proud history of investigation microbiology… abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?… Image
Feb 28, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
If I were writing an essay about how “the way to follow the science is to *follow* the science,” I’d probably cite literally any of the scientific literature (which all concludes zoonosis is most likely), rather than just mocking tweets. Here are some of the top virologists and viral epidemiology experts, concluding zoonosis is most likely and lab scenarios don’t make sense. In Cell, one of biomedicine’s top journals: cell.com/cell/fulltext/…
Nov 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
MGP’s win in WA-3 could be the difference between Speaker Pelosi and Speaker Marjorie Taylor Greene. It was given 2% chance. Almost no help from the DCCC until nearly the end. Feels in some ways like Nancy Boyda’s surprise win in KS-2 in 2006. Hope MGP stays longer though. MGP didn’t run away from her party or it’s positions. She replaces Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of the few GOP Representatives to impeach Trump. WA’s top two primary meant she and MAGA insurrectionist loon Joe Kent were on a ballot with Beutler. Herrera Beutler finished third.
Nov 11, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
This by top virologist Bob Garry is a really exceptional rundown of what we know about the #OriginOfCovid and why a lab sceniario doesn’t make sense. Also really struck by this line: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… Image I was talking with a leaker recently who blamed the virology community and especially the leakers’ usual list of suspects for his personal case of Long COVID. It struck me forcefully (again) in that chat how leak conspiracies are psychologically powerful and socially harmful.
Oct 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Has @propublica @VanityFair or anyone else responded officially to the concerns raised about their lab leak piece relying on mistranslations and credulous repetitions of partisan lies about a routine safety training? Have they addressed who the three experts were who they cited as validating those mistranslations, and why those sources were granted anonymity in the piece? Have they explained how the science was so badly mangled?
Oct 31, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I’m not a checkmark, but as a user and someone who would happily be verified, I value check marks as a sign of platform-level trust, not as personal status. I wouldn’t pay a penny for it. It’s unclear what, if anything, a blue check means today. The value, AFAICT, is mainly that the platform confirms that its users exist as real people. I wouldn’t pay to be verified, but as an advertiser I’d appreciate knowing the platform confirms identities.
Oct 29, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Another thought on Eban’s report on the GOP lab leak caucus report. The dive into WIV’s reports back to the political bosses could make a really interesting story and, assuming the GOP staffer isn’t a 100% kook, may be an interesting look behind the curtain of Chinese politics. But Eban’s report and the GOP process for their report sound like some hack buried in the State bureaucracy was yanked out by a Senator to dig around for something to justify his prior beliefs, and then those findings were shopped to a reporter committed to justifying her story.
Oct 29, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I read the new Eban/Kao piece on the Senate Republican lab leak caucus investigation. It’s incredibly thin. The hero is some random Republican staffer who is apparently the only person in the world capable of scrying the soopers3kr1t meanings inside CCP documents. So he was able to discover a massive conspiracy involving WIV and top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party! Including Xi himself. Using only publicly-available records cleverly hidden on WIV’s own website! That no intel agency ever caught! Nor State Dept., where he worked!
Oct 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
So are we all going back to USENET now? The awesome thing about USENET was that it was built on an open protocol, documented by RFCs and all. It’s what Mastodon is kinda gesturing toward being, but actually interconnected so that no one has to know what server you use. Spam and Nazis are definitely a problem, but…
Oct 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The thing I find fascinating about this exchange (and the huge response to screengrabs of them), is that Phil (VeggieTales) isn’t saying anything extraordinary. Not saying abortion is OK, not speaking for trans rights. Just not letting bad arguments and racism go unaddressed. I regret to inform you about milkshake duck’s views on gay representation and marriage equality (addressing an episode of Arthur where a teacher marries a person of the same sex). lgbtqnation.com/2019/08/veggie…
Aug 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Curious if the Trump search warrant’s inclusion of obstruction is a pro forma component of most such warrants, or specific here. Could speak to J6/Russia/impeachment, or a routine catchall in case they saw something, or something the rumored tipster warned about. I could imagine that the classified material left feds an opening to do this search any time they wanted—they’ve been asking about that material for a while and know it exists. A judge would definitely OK. a warrant for it, but there isn’t necessarily special urgency.
Aug 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
The IRA’s climate provisions aren’t everything climate hawks and environmental justice advocates hoped for, but it’s the biggest climate and EJ bill ever passed in US history, or any other country. It isn’t perfect, but it’s a tremendous victory in an ongoing campaign. It’s fine to wonder what’s next and to worry about how people and corporations will game it. We’ll learn from it and the next climate bill will be better, at least if we elect more Dems. If the 49th/50th Dem isn’t Manchinema but Angus King or Mark Kelly, we’ll get a lot more.
Apr 29, 2022 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
Twitter’s would-be owner said a dumb thing about political polarization, which was very wrong and widely critiqued. (Claimed Democrats have gone so far left that centrists who remain centrist are now Republicans.) In fact, a decade or so of social science shows the opposite… 1/ Dems and Rs both became more extreme in recent decades For the last 10 years or so, people have known that Republicans went farther right than Dems went left. As @drvolts wrote in 2012(!), “The left’s gone left, the right’s gone nuts.” grist.org/politics/asymm… 2/
Apr 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My dude doesn’t even allow all legally-required speech in his factories, nor does he squelch all illegal hostile speech and discriminatory behavior there. #OnHere he has repeatedly said things that the law doesn’t permit. Image I mean, that is not even the most egregiously wrong misunderstanding this tweet displays about the company he proposes to run, in an industry where he will go from mere participant to one of the biggest players.
Dec 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
One of my metrics for judging how journalists write about "lab leak" claims has been how they discuss Nick Wade's racist book. Here's the paltry mention in Chan and Ridley's Viral. No way to know what his conjectures might have been, or why these scientists didn't care for them! All we can know is that Wade, formerly a feted science writer at the New York Times and elsewhere, is really an edgy outsider who will risk his reputation to tell the truth. About…something. No point in their describing these bold truths.
Dec 18, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
This thread of Alina’s is weird, and perfectly encapsulates the shifting goalposts that always accompany conspiracy theories. Let’s review: The furin cleavage site (FCS) is a feature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that makes it more virulent in humans, confers little (if any) benefit in bats, and is not a feature previously seen in the closest relatives of SARS. 2/
Nov 25, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
No shade on Amazon reviews, but if the only reviewers an author tweets out are Amazon reviews, they’re getting beaten up (or ignored), by the press and expert reviewers. Image I see why the authors didn’t decide to share this with readers. washingtonpost.com/outlook/amid-a… ImageImage
Oct 30, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This choice adds tremendous confusion, since it represents zoonotic spilllover and the average reader will hear "laboratory-associated" and think the infection was *associated* with a *laboratory*. It only merits celebration if you really want the "lab" conclusion no matter what. Alas, the IC doesn't separate "zoonosis in the field to lab workers who were exposed to what farmers, hunters, miners, hikers, etc. face routinely" from "someone stuck a poop swab in their nose" from "devious experiments created a monster that cinematically escaped the lab."
Oct 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
What?, indeed. An infection by researchers in the field, who are infected doing exactly what farmers, miners, spelunkers, etc. might do, is not a lab escape. cnn.com/2021/10/29/pol… This is all correct, though. Not a comprehensive version of the case for zoonosis, but sensible weighting of available evidence.