My new book 'THE REBELS' on Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the rise of the populist left is out today. Hope you'll check it out! amazon.com/Rebels-Elizabe…
Some early praise: "brilliant" (Semafor), "A revealing history of an epochal shift in American politics” (Publishers Weekly), "Fast-paced, sober, yet hopeful . . . Green is a first-rate journalist” (The Atlantic)

More bad news for Trump: as Covid relief expires tomorrow, airlines plan to lay off tens of thousands of workers -- hitting swing states especially hard since AZ, PA, NC, FL + TX all have airport hubs. My new @BW: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… this is reason #2,312 Trump should have forcefully pushed for a big stimulus: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

My new @BW feature on how Maricopa County, AZ and suburbs like it are the new frontier of U.S. politics -- trending hard against Trump and poised to determine control of the White House and Congress in November: bloomberg.com/news/features/… Diversity is one big driver of suburban change: 358 of the nation's 364 metro areas have seen fall in white population share since 2010. Census estimates also show total number of whites in U.S. has actually fallen last 3 years for 1st time in U.S. history...

Smart traders don't act on Navarro rants because he's often freelancing

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1275239729622142976

e.g.

https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1275243214732230656

My new @BW piece on a hidden danger lurking for Trump: "double haters" -- voters who dislike both candidates -- strongly favor Biden. A sharp change from '16 when they broke hard to Trump bloomberg.com/news/articles/… also, thanks to @NBCNews for sharing polling data for this piece

NEW: Coronavirus is hitting at worst possible time for Trump’s reelection. Studies show election-year economy - Q2 specifically - is “what really matters in terms of shaping voter outlook,” per @AlanIAbramowitz. And we’re entering a ferocious Q2 recession: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Recession-induced income loss will be critical. Research by Larry Bartels + Chris Achen found "a strong relationship between changes in real disposable income per capita in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of presidential election years and the incumbent party’s electoral fortunes."

Personal conspiracy theory: Trump's advisers are delaying him from speaking until after markets close at 4pm. wisely, I should add

Futures market reaction to Trump's Coronavirus address is...not good 😬 market still plunging, updated chart -->

Fascinating @peretti interview posits that Steve Bannon may be the human link between the fun, sharable early-era Buzzfeed and the alt right that came next (nymag.com/intelligencer/…): @peretti Source of long-ago @peretti-Bannon crossover is this passover from DEVIL'S BARGAIN (amazon.com/Devils-Bargain…):

For skeptics of @ewarren’s claim she was from her teaching job in 1971 for being pregnant, the practice was actually widespread. How do I know? Because my mom was fired from HER teaching job in 1971…for being pregnant, with me. A brief thread--> @ewarren Like Warren, my mom was a young, untenured teacher on a one-year contract. Once visibly pregnant, she was forced out of her job. But there was one big difference: my mom had union backing — and sued the school district to keep her job.

My new @BW cover on how @ewarren learned to use Washington power, nearly became Hillary’s VP, why she stiffed Bernie in ’16--and is hellbent on a big agenda that could beat Trump...or cost Democrats everything bloomberg.com/news/features/… @BW @ewarren Some highlights: Warren casts herself as an outsider, but the pivotal moment in her political career was choosing not to run in ’16 + betting on an insider, Hillary, to go all the way. Close advisers say she regrets it.

My new @BW piece on why Trump can't spin the trade war: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Trump's portrait of murderous immigrants resonates with followers who have little contact with them. But his phony claims that China's paying the tariffs aren't working because voters feel them directly, in their own lives: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Crunching the Mardi Gras booze data for @BW to measure alcoholic polarization: Dems drink cognac + brandy, GOPers bourbon + shitty light beer: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Here's a chart showing the partisan breakdown of alcohol consumption, via @WillFeltus of National Media Inc. (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…):

This is a result of a pressure campaign by @JuddLegum:

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1056902024732782593

https://twitter.com/JoshuaGreen/status/1057278854925074437

King's also hard up for money + this morning Cook Report shifted his race rating toward the Democrat (though it still "leans R")

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1057282599809253377

I've seen anecdotes about Kavanaugh enraging/energizing Dem voters -- here's hard data from MobilizeAmerica, the volunteer platform used by hundreds of D campaigns. Ford's public claim of assault led to big spike in volunteers: The spikes are driven by events, and each one drives Dem engagement higher: Ford's claim of assault; the Ford-Kavanaugh testimony, etc. It's jacked up Dem activists to *work actual shifts* (rather than just tweet, etc).

NEWS: I got hold of internal RNC poll @jmartNYT + @jonathanvswan wrote about and it's stunning: Trump's boast of a "red wave" has convinced many GOP voters House isn't at risk -- so they may not show up in Nov: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… @jmartNYT @jonathanvswan Also, the RNC poll finds Dems "hold a significant edge on both the generic Congressional ballot and 'campaign interest'" -- they lead the generic ballot by 9 points.

With Trump's tariffs imminent, I did a deep dive for @BW on the congressional districts that will suffer most. One GOP strategist told me: "It’s like he’s micro-targeting policy to screw his own supporters.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/… I found a remarkable stat on how badly Trump supporters get hurt in a trade war if China retaliates with soy tariffs as threatened. Of the 30 House districts most reliant on soybeans, GOP reps 25 + Dems 5 -- but all 30 districts voted for Trump in '16 (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…)

Useful history here for those who don't know it: Trump got mercilessly owned by both @sethmeyers + @BarackObama at 2011 WHCD as he sat in the audience. It was his "Rosebud" moment. I'll tweet the surreal scene as described in DEVIL'S BARGAIN (amazon.com/Devils-Bargain…) -->

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First off, Trump almost skipped the WHCD because he was invited to Steve Wynn's third wedding in Vegas the night before and Clint Eastwood and Frank Stallone were gonna be there. And '80s celebs are gods to Trump...

Yesterday I wrote about how Trump's trade war was hurting Kansas sorghum farmers. Today, Reuters has a great story/graphic showing ships wth U.S. sorghum literally stopping at sea due to new 178% tariff: reuters.com/article/us-usa… Hug a Kansan!

China's retaliatory tariffs not only crush Trump voters (see chart), but also hurt Republicans in Clinton states like IL + MN, where incumbents like @GovRauner + @RepErikPaulsen now have even tougher lift (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…) On the other hand, this is wind in the sails of vulnerable Dems like @SenDonnelly, @HeidiHeitkamp + @clairecmc since IN, ND + MO are all top producers of soybeans. Per @CookPolitical those are 3 of the 4 most imperiled Dems

RNC staffers chanting "Crumbs!" As Andrew Gillum and PCCC rally commemorate Florida shooting victims Here's a close up -- RNC staff had handmade signs to billboard their mockery ("How Bout Dem Crumbs," a reference to this: foxnews.com/politics/2018/…)