It seems a thread on the Dutch elections is warranted With even the FT going off the rails on understanding what happened an explanation of our peculiarities and the outcome seems warranted.

Yes, Wilders won the elections and he is a populist. 1/ It is arguable that the outcome is due to correct democratic process. There were a lot of leadership debates and independent assessments confirmed that Wilders came out top. Do not underestimate his debating skills. His main opponents avoided one debate and it cost them. 2/

As the UK foreign secretary threatens protocol Armageddon there is a lot of speculation about how the EU will react. In my irregular series of the EU perspective on Brexit issues, a 🧵on what the EU is really likely to do outside of the dreams of Guido Fawkes 1/ First reminder to new readers, the EU is neither clueless nor inexperienced in trade wars. Whilst what the UK proposes to do is egregious, there are tried and tested methods and strategies which will be re-used. 2/

The Brexit perspective from Brussels ...

The biggest talkers at the moment are the UK rep. There is a repeating trope from HMG here in Brussels at the moment to both British and EU interests that:

We will diverge, we can diverge and alignment is an illusion. 1/ The UK perm rep seems to have been sent or believes it needs to convince the continent of both the inevitability and the benefits of non-alignment.

The strident harshness with which the message is communicated is baffling. As a non-brit one wonders who needs convincing. 2/

Brexit - the view from Europe - there is a lot of static on the line. Between the election in the UK, @anandMenon1 making an interesting analysis but shows a lack of understanding of MS/EU interaction and the chit-chat over the calendar, we got to look at facts again. 1/ In my previous thread I warned Remainers that the EU is not their friend. Now that the dust settled on the latest Brexit delay things are settling into a pattern. The EU is ahead of the curve in its thinking about the future compared to the UK; same as after the referendum. 2/

A new thread on the EU perspective written with some reluctance for the same reason as Fabian here below notes: what is the best strategy forward for the EU? No clue (well maybe a few) 1/

https://twitter.com/FabianZuleeg/status/1180157813550653443

@tconnellyRTE ,@pmdfoster ,@CER_Grant,@DavidHenigUK , @BrigidLaffan ,@AnnaJerzewska ;@DmitryOpines - the list of eminent reporters/analysts that have explained, dissected and laid bare the problems with HMG 'offer' is plentiful and comprehensive. I wont go over this ground. 2/

In yesterday's post about the EU perception of Brexit I remarked that many view 'no deal' as an overtly hostile act by the UK. The reactions to this point and b/c Leavers continue to tout 'no deal' as something useful show that 'no deal' the EU perspective needs explaining.1/ I will drill down to the present later on, but just the genesis of the 'ejector seat' in art. 50 when that was negotiated was this: EU MS did not trust the UK to abuse art. 50 to extract membership concession through threatening to leave. 2/

My previous thread about Brexit from the EU perspective turned out to be so correct I was almost minded not write another as everything I shared became main stream the week after. The only open item is the inevitable request for an extension. 1/ Brexit is very multi-faceted and as the EU hasnt received any serious proposals - in fact what was received was worse than expected - it seems worthwhile to run past a couple of things that are routinely misrepresented in the British press or downright under-reported. 2/

After my EU view of the Brexit negotiations predicted an extension a plethora of reports came out: 'concrete' proposals have been made orally, German sources said to push for deal and various hypotheticals on non-backstop WA. @Mij_Europe even put a deal @20% 1/ Most of those reports sound plausible but are they real or just media acting as message boys for spin as @CoppetainPU fears many are?
Progress is NIL but it didnt mean nothing was mooted however as you will see - the substance is easily debunked. 2/

Its been a long while since I did a thread on the EU perspective of the Brexit side. The reasons were simple, there was nothing happening and then after Johnson's election the brouhaha was mainly in the UK. 1/ As the new PM was the loudest voice claiming the UK held all the cards it was interesting to wait and see how he would play them. Amid the fracas there were also voices @CER_Grant and @BBCkatyaadler who claimed flickers of light in the negotiation were apparent. 2/